Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar
He is giving WWE an exception to tape shows from their Orlando building.
I really do not understand the hate for DeSantis. He has kept things open longer than just about anyone and is seeing deaths/1M population low. I know Mike Dewine of Ohio has been getting a lot of praise and his state has more deaths/1M population than Florida.
We also have been hearing "just wait until next week when everything spikes" about Florida for about the last 4 weeks now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
If you're looking at this stopping somewhere around 200 million infected in America (as in actually infected not just confirmed cases) then "millions and millions" (if "millions" has to be at least 2 million then I assume that means at least 4 million), would require an IFR of more than 2%, and it's clearly nothing like that.
Continuing the discussion on true case resolution rates, you have to look at places that are doing proper testing and follow-up:
The Diamond Princess cases are currently resolved as 12 dead, 639 recovered (1.87% - in this elderly population)
I also think it's interesting to look at countries that have a high ratio of tests conducted to positives found, because it means they are actually following contacts back to a few degrees and actually finding the asymptomatic cases that infected the part of the iceberg that is above the water and showing up in the hospital, so their data is more representative (though not fully with them either).
worldometers doesn't have a test/cases column, but you can find some of the highest ones by sorting on tests/population. Picking the ones which have more people recovered than active (because some countries e.g. Norway seem to never mark people as recovered), and a test/case ratio of at least 20.
Iceland 20 tests per case (35K/1.7K) 8 deaths, 933 recovered (0.85% dead)
Australia 57 tests per case 61 deaths, 3598 recovered (1.7% dead)
S Korea 50 tests per case 222 deaths, 7534 recovered (2.8% dead)
Jordan 52 tests per case 215 recovered, 7 dead (3.2%)
Thailand 38 tests per case 1405 recovered 41 dead (2.8%)
so the above should give some ideas for upper limits of the IFR. There are still going to be some recoveries and also a lot of asymptomatic cases missing from this data too - in the countries above, if you're diagnosed they'll find out which of your asymptomatic friends, uncles or colleagues also has it, but they won't find the guy who coughed on the bus. However it's better than data from the UK (4.1 tests per case) or USA (5 tests per case), where they'll only really find an extra case if it's someone who lives with you - otherwise the case figure is all people who turn up needing treatment and they are not a representative subset.
Really the gold standard is still the Diamond Princess data.
Random sampling suggests we can add another couple of thousand to the Iceland case numbers which brings it into the sub 0.5% fatality rate I've been suggesting all along. That puts a ceiling on US deaths of around 1 million even if it spreads everywhere. Healthcare matters too of course.
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A few more studies to go along with the others I posted a few days ago:
https://www.technologyreview.com/202...wn-in-germany/
https://www.technologyreview.com/202...wn-in-germany/
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVpg0JZX...jpg&name=large
Small sample sizes of course, but we could already be seeing 20-25 million cases in the US?
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
Barring a vaccine or some miraculous summer disappearance there's very little chance. Maybe w/o spectators and sequestered players. But there's a lot fo crazy logistics to that.
PGA Tour has already announced coming back in June. Once the first organization starts playing the others will all follow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nicholasp27
With no restrictions it wouldn’t necessarily stop at 200M infected
I’m assuming IFR is more like 1 to be conservative even tho it’s likely higher based on all available data.
Also, if the 7 Diamond Princess people still in critical die, that would be around 2.7% death rate, and they all got the care they need unlike in NYC where 250 people are dying at home every day (and not in the numbers yet) from this with no treatment, which pushes the fatality rate up because some number of those 250 each and every day would have lived if they had been in the hospital with the non-overran health system that the Diamond Princess passengers had.
I’m still gonna use 1 for my numbers as a baseline to be conservative, but this thing is not at 0.5% like some want to say; 1% is close to the floor
What available datais that? Do you know what an IFR is?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nicholasp27
No sports for the next 12 months.
Opening up would mean retail and restaurants and offices and will be shut down shortly after anyway when cases spike, and may be highly localized.
Sports is many more people than retail or restaurants and isn’t happening.
Yeah, they'll be playing live sports in less than 2 months.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar
This battle doesn't exist. Governors hold all the cards.
We have gotten to a very strange time when the left is arguing the 10th Amendment and Federalism while a Republican President is arguing for centralized power. It's like we are back in the Civil War...
In all seriousness, Trump does have a pretty easy out here against the governors and that would be an argument involving the Commerce Clause. I wouldn't agree with it, but we have seen the Commerce Clause used just as loosely in the past.
Quote:
Originally Posted by filthyvermin
today usa deaths ~2400
italy, spain, france, germany, UK ~2900
You do realize why this means the opposite of what you're trying to show, right?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVfIDnNW...g&name=900x900
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevinb1983
This is wild to me. In the midst of an actual public health pandemic you've created an imaginary economic pandemic (that is not very close to reality yet) and are willing to punt the former for the latter.
This economic "pandemic" is not imaginary.
https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/imag...6441471&w=1910
And with businesses being forced to remain closed another 2-3 weeks+, many of those jobs won't be coming back.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 27offsuit
When sitting on your hands for two weeks, or even one week, costs you everything.
Two weeks earlier, which was plain as day to this thread at the time, would probably have us gearing up for a nice May 1 opening and literally back to business as usual.
But that didn't happen, and on top of the current poor situation in USA we are going to open too soon and exacerbate the entire problem and even potentially collapse the entire country.
Two weeks
Is this based on Trump declaring a National Emergency around the 3/13 date? If so, on March 13, the US had 43 deaths. Go back two weeks to February 29 and the US had 1 death at the time due to COVID-19 (this is according to Worldometers).
February 29 was the date of the South Carolina Primary.
Super Tuesday (awarding 1344 delegates) was 3 days later on March 3.
How do you think Trump's order to just shut everything down would have gone over on 2/29 with 1 confirmed death considering those facts?
Last edited by JAAASH3; 04-15-2020 at 10:42 PM.
