I love how everyone who got/is getting the analysis dead wrong here is someone I've called an idiot/terrible at analysis at some point in the past.

grimreaper, it's really simple. Despite a small percentage of the population of Wuhan infected (we can say less than 1% from the numerous population samples we have from evacuated expats, and also from how infections peaked after lockdown), hospitals overflowed with the critically ill, and the makeshift hospitals did as well. Due to the overwhelming overflow of critically ill, brutal triage had thousands of people turned away from hosptal care and died at home as well.

There is no flu season that has ever caused hospital overflow with the critically ill at even a fraction of this rate, despite flus going through >10% of the population very often (30% some years). So we know for a fact it's at least 10 times as bad as the flu for death and hospitalization.

The other data point we have is the young. The number dead under 40, including healthy 20 and 30 year olds, puts a population fatality rate at around 200 per 100,000 for under 40s. The fatality rate for the flu is 1 per 100,000 people. Thus if they are undercounting infections by 20x (impossible), for young people, it's still 10x deadlier than the flu.

Finally we have places like Italy. It has 41 dead for coronavirus, nearly all of them secondary acquisitions (not Chinese or travelers). It takes at least 3 weeks from infection to die from the virus, and usually 4-5. If there was a 0.4% death rate, 4x as bad as the flu, that many dead means 10250 were infected in early Feburary. At 13 doubling iterations that means the infection had been in Italy undetected weeks before the first infection in China.

The math just doesn't work even at a 0.4% death rate, 4x the flu. It's even worse in Iran. The numbers all point to a 1% death rate at least.

Finally, the most recent professional estimates publish in journals are putting the range at 0.7% - 3.1%. 7x worse than the flu at least.

Against that we have grim reaper who has such poor reading skills he doesn't understand the difference between asymptomatic and mild (defined as not requiring hospitalization).

Yeah grim isn't doing great in here but I do understand the desire to be contrarian.


As I've told all my loved ones here, it's the hospitalization rate you need to worry about. Our hospital beds were full before this. We aren't throwing 100k Chinese workers at a hole in the ground to build a hospital in two weeks. Our medical system is about to get blown out in Canada.

35 million Americans have lung disease of some kind including asthma. With the immuno compromised you're shooting over 50m easy.

We also just aren't as tough as the Chinese on average. We haven't suffered much in generations, so the hype can run for months.

And as others have said, the measures taken in both countries here now are late and inadequate. We should already be social distancing. That would help bridge the gap to Spring. I believe they pissed their window away, or most of it. Thankfully the south should get warm enough in a month. Up here we'll need some serious luck because we gotta last till June.

I think it is. I couldn’t find 50+ specifically but Chinese median age is like 38 and 17% is above 60 so I am guessing 50+ is about 30%, probably lower in the major urban centers.

Let’s just say relevant population has about 25% 50+. That suggests reporting rate among those below 50 is 2/3 of those above 50.. It could also suggest young people may be fighting off infection. Perhaps it is a combination of both.

Another data point about how this isn't the flu:

Italy's health system at limit in virus-struck Lombardy
Lombardy has a population of 10 million and the health system is overwhelmed with 770 (of the 1700 known infected) requiring hospitalization, and 9% in intensive care. That's a 0.017% infection rate overwhelming hospitals. Even if we assume it's undercounted by 1000% (very unlikely given the extent of testing now including contact testing which are the most likely infected). In the generous 10x undercounting scenario, that's 0.17% population infection rate overwhelming hospitals. What is 1% going to look like? 10% as the flu often reaches? People will die in the streets and at home like they did in Wuhan, and the death rate will go up as a result of no medical care for severe pneumonia. Given this, the only solution to keep the death rate down will be total lockdown, China style (they did it for a reason), which will devastate economies for at least two months.

imo our only hope of avoiding a second Spanish flu and the devastation that caused is that the virus spread is stopped by spring weather starting mid April. Given how incredibly infectious it is (spring only reduces R0 by some amount, it doesn't magically put it to zero), even that might not be enough. But it should improve things.

WHO: Hundreds of thousands of contacts have been followed up and tested in China. Very low detection in those contacts.

Therefore, the death and hospitalization rates are accurate and this fiction of "multiples of mild cases not being caught" isn't real. Which you could have figured out already if you followed the data logically, there were numerous strong data points of far far higher than flu death rates.

WHO has very upbeat/comical press conference, claims this can still be contained (with borders kept open). Markets loved it, already risk on and this was candy.

risk on was due to central bankers being present at the G7 call on tuesday

still a choppy **** show obv

THis virus is a nothing burger going forward. Pretty clear it is flu 2.0 at this point. The shock to markets/ world econ might not end but lol at people out buying cases of water like it is the end of times.

Not gonna happen.

lol flu 2.0

Yes the Chinese devastated their economy for the flu.

The Canadian dr who was team lead on the WHO team in China:

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/checkup/sho...hina-1.5481938

Aylward was adamant that the concern is not an overreaction.

"This is more dangerous than the flu. Very definitely," he said.

Compared to the seasonal flu, he said, there is currently no vaccine for the novel coronavirus. Combining that with a higher mortality rate compared to the regular flu makes it particularly worrisome, he said.

"This is right in that sweet spot where it can cause devastation to a health system, the health of the population, the economy and society. This is not to be treated lightly."

There are so many idiots earnestly putting forth this view that I can't tell if this is satire.

I initially thought it was going to be a nothing burger. I was wrong.

By the way, I always see these comical numbers people put forth for common flu deaths. 30k Americans do not die from the flu every year. That number is so inflated through manipulation (pneumonia often gets lumped in together with the flu + just straight up missattribuating the cause of death since flu and cold symptoms are similar). So some 80 year old person with a cold dies (probably from natural causes), and gets marked down as a flu death occasionally. It's ******ed.

At how many Italian deaths does the entire western economy halt?
Those numbers could reach 300 by the end of this week.

The Italian death pattern is very similar to the chinese death pattern. Slightly slower but not too much.
Chinese went 56, 80, 106 and 132.
Let’s see how the Italian do in the next 4 days.

The Korean death pattern is much slower. I think they are successfully treating mild cases before they get complicated.

The person who tested positive in NYC was only the 32nd person tested in NY. This thing has been spreading within the US for a month or more most likely. We just haven't been testing, and it's going to bite us in the ass.

I am operating under the assumption that every NYC subway line is infected and wiping down all the poles before I hold onto them.

No need for any of that. Wear gloves (it's winter), use the back to touch your face/hair and the front to touch everything else like normal. Move >3 meters away from sneezers/coughers. Chance of infection near zero from strangers then.

Just had a client cough without covering their mouth in my office and I inhaled it. Lovely.

This is the best response to those who think the virus will be a "nothingburger":



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUoBkhTFdWA

I would guess it's more a result of identifying cases earlier and with greater frequency.

Iran for example was/is reporting deaths at the same time as diagnosis. That doesn't mean they have a deadlier strain as some have speculated. It means they're not testing and reporting the same way as Korea.

I was sitting on the F train a few days ago... I was glad about getting a seat until someone coughed over my head and it was like rain.

No because they begun with a similar death number than Italy 10 days ago. They now half the deaths.
See the Italian pattern and compare it to the Korean.

What explains the discrepancy between Italy and South Korea ?

Other possible explanation is that small villages have older people bias.

You misconstrued my posts, but yeah I remember. I remember you crying I was an idiot in Dec 2019 when I got long and posted multiple $40k daily pnl screens. Yup, I was an idiot for not listening to your advice of closing after the first up day. I think that same month you posted, what, a $40.00 loss in Brian bet thread?

Anyway, ES closing +113 for the day. Talk to me when you finally make it out of the microstakes.

It's wrong to read that much into tiny numbers.

Do you think it’s more likely that the slower Korean pattern over the Italian pattern is due to random chance than because of structural factor ?

It could be random luck or it could be something that else.

I agree at the lol flu 2.0 but your comment is misleading.

The Chinese devestated their economy for a brand new virus/pathogen that they had little to no information on and had to take the most drastic action because of the massive potential downsides/risks/zombie apocalypse that are on the table with new novel diseases.

It could totally be flue 2.0 and the Chinese would still be correct to have acted the way they did because no one knew it was 2.0 or whatever it actually is when they had to act, for all they knew it was ebolaaidscancerhepatitisisbirdswineflue 1.

So cliffs is the whole it cant be X because if it is X the chinese would not have acted the way they did is a moot argument.