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08-16-2015 , 05:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yangle
Is there anyone who can transfer me some BTC for Stars $? Will be around 0.3BTC and I can offer a good rate!

I can send first on Stars
When's wcoop? Maybe....
Pm me.
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08-16-2015 , 06:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bucktotal
but, if you vote incorrectly or do not vote, you lose REP, but doesn't say how much. my questions so far are: Does this mean you have to vote on all bets?
voting incorrectly is the one that loses you REP. missing one reporting period is supposed to be a pretty minor impact. keep in mind that the reporting period is a month long.

Quote:
what if the result is unclear or goes unresolved?
Bush v Gore 2000 is the famous one here, and they've planned for it: there's an unresolved option to vote for.

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it does seem like your paying for this job, but how much work is this job going to be? do i want this job? i already have a job.
i've thought about that too, but ultimately i'm not too worried on this front. plus, i want to see real and liquid prediction markets ASAP so if I have to spend a few hours every couple months, then no big deal.

the bigger question is whether they are good at marketing. based on my calculations if they do $1 billion in volume per year, then every year I get back about what I put in.

but like i said, i really want to see prediction markets, so i will put some money in.
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08-16-2015 , 10:07 PM
Loz, mind sharing your assumptions/methodology regarding your calculation?
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08-17-2015 , 12:51 AM
It's fairly simple calcs.

Total volume * 0.5% of the volume = Amount distributed to REP holders

So if you put 50,000 in and Augur raises $5m, then you get 1% of that amount.

You can play with the numbers. Amount raised matters, but at its core it's all a bet on whether Augur can get volume or not.
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08-17-2015 , 01:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LozColbert
voting incorrectly is the one that loses you REP. missing one reporting period is supposed to be a pretty minor impact. keep in mind that the reporting period is a month long.



Bush v Gore 2000 is the famous one here, and they've planned for it: there's an unresolved option to vote for.



i've thought about that too, but ultimately i'm not too worried on this front. plus, i want to see real and liquid prediction markets ASAP so if I have to spend a few hours every couple months, then no big deal.

the bigger question is whether they are good at marketing. based on my calculations if they do $1 billion in volume per year, then every year I get back about what I put in.

but like i said, i really want to see prediction markets, so i will put some money in.
Lurked here for a while and have been following Augur. It seems they are doing okay, liked this video they have promoted and it seems to be successful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yegyih591Jo
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08-17-2015 , 03:03 AM
The calculation for the annual revenue for REP is as follows

0.005 * Total amount bet on Augur for a year * USD equivalent amount you invest on Oct 1 / USD Amount Augur Raises = Your profit for one year

This assumes you do all the reporting correctly and don't suffer a 20% penalty. Buying REP is not a simple gamble on whether or not Augur gets volume or not. That's what I and most other people would like to bet on, but by buying REP you're gambling on three things.

1. Augur will capture a large portion of the online betting market
2. Augur will not raise much money in this initial IPO
3. The price of eth/btc(whichever you use to buy REP with) will rise between when you buy REP and when the sale closes

I really don't understand why they didn't just put an opening sale price on REP. This would have eliminated #2 and #3 but I think they got greedy and know that people like Loz will just blindly buy REP without knowing what price they're paying.

For an example calc...

USD Amount Augur Raises - I feel 95% confident Augur will raise between $1-$10M. Let's assume they raise $3M. The only way to know for sure is to wait until the last second on Oct 1.

Total amount bet on Augur for a year - According to https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/c..._of_augur_ipo/ 2015 online gambling is $41 billion. So maybe one day they capture $1 billion in bets (which is super optimistic and is not going to happen in 2016) maybe 2020? For 2016 let's say it's $100M (I really have no idea)

USD equivalent amount you invest on Oct 1 - Let's use $10k for the example

0.005 * $100,000,000 * $10,000 / $3,000,000 = $1,667 or 16.7% ROI

Whoopee 16.7% ROI for an optimistic calc that I have to do >6 hours of labor for. I'll let others play with the #s, but I think I'm sitting this sale out.

Moon #s
0.005 * $1,000,000,000 * $10,000 / $1,000,000 = $50,000 or 500% ROI

Super fail #s
0.005 * $10,000,000 * $10,000 / $5,000,000 = $100 or 1% ROI
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08-17-2015 , 03:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by andr3w321
know that people like Loz will just blindly buy REP without knowing what price they're paying.
<3

At the margin, it's in my economic interest for you to convince people that they shouldn't buy REP

Last edited by LozColbert; 08-17-2015 at 03:23 AM.
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08-17-2015 , 03:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LozColbert
<3

At the margin, it's in my economic interest for you to convince people that they shouldn't buy REP
In the same spirit, perhaps I should note that neither andr3w321's calculation nor mine is technically correct as the crowdsale purchasers gets 80% of the REP.
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08-17-2015 , 03:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by andr3w321
I'll let others play with the #s, but I think I'm sitting this sale out.
Great post, thanks! Cleared up a lot!
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08-17-2015 , 09:05 AM
I assume Rep is transferable? Say I get tired of resolving bets, can I sell my REP?
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08-17-2015 , 10:49 AM
if the blockchain forks, what do we need to do to ensure our coins remain safe and usable on the new chain?
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08-17-2015 , 12:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
I assume Rep is transferable? Say I get tired of resolving bets, can I sell my REP?
yes, REP will be transferable when the network goes live. crowdsale site is live, btw: https://sale.augur.net/
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08-17-2015 , 12:34 PM
Crowdsale #'s really high so far.

111 btc and 1500 eth so far.

I'm not putting in any more than 1 btc so dont expect to get much REP
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08-17-2015 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05
There is literally no way to incentivize the early adopters beyond any other user.

Furthermore, this ignores the fundamental problem with BTC and why it has been an utter failure with betting. No one is interested in making large liquid markets with a narrow spread for anonymous bettors. Might as well just light it on fire. As a previous sportsbook owner you should understand this.
Man, less crowd funding talk and more of these 2 unpacking their convo a little.

Mihkel, the way I understand it the market makers don't bare any risks besides currency volatility ?
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08-17-2015 , 01:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by greg nice
if the blockchain forks, what do we need to do to ensure our coins remain safe and usable on the new chain?
If your coins are in cold storage or otherwise static they are safe. During a fork they will be on both versions of the blockchain so whichever version wins you will still have your coins. You only risk losing anything when making transactions during a fork, but that wont happen until earliest 2016 and only if 75% of miners are running the new software.
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08-17-2015 , 01:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LozColbert
In the same spirit, perhaps I should note that neither andr3w321's calculation nor mine is technically correct as the crowdsale purchasers gets 80% of the REP.
This is correct. You have to multiply by 0.8 since only 80 cents of every dollar you invest is going toward actually purchasing REP. There's also the early buy in bonus which I think you just multiply by 1.15 for so essentially if you buy now 0.8 * 1.15 = 92 cents of every dollar you invest is going toward REP purchase unless I made another mistake.

0.005 * Total amount bet on Augur for a year * USD equivalent amount you invest on Oct 1 / USD Amount Augur Raises * 0.8 * Early buyin bonus = Your profit for one year

Early buy
0.005 * $100,000,000 * $10,000 / $3,000,000 * 0.8 * 1.15 = $1,533 or 15.3% ROI

Last minute buy
0.005 * $100,000,000 * $10,000 / $3,000,000 * 0.8 * 1.0 = $1,333 or 13.3% ROI
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08-17-2015 , 01:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by andr3w321
This is correct. You have to multiply by 0.8 since only 80 cents of every dollar you invest is going toward actually purchasing REP. There's also the early buy in bonus which I think you just multiply by 1.15 for so essentially if you buy now 0.8 * 1.15 = 92 cents of every dollar you invest is going toward REP purchase unless I made another mistake.

0.005 * Total amount bet on Augur for a year * USD equivalent amount you invest on Oct 1 / USD Amount Augur Raises * 0.8 * Early buyin bonus = Your profit for one year

Early buy
0.005 * $100,000,000 * $10,000 / $3,000,000 * 0.8 * 1.15 = $1,533 or 15.3% ROI

Last minute buy
0.005 * $100,000,000 * $10,000 / $3,000,000 * 0.8 * 1.0 = $1,333 or 13.3% ROI
To be clear, when you say profit, you're actually referring to gross earnings, right? In these examples, you are still down money during the 1 year period on your $10,000 investment, right?
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08-17-2015 , 01:57 PM
yes, he's saying that would be what you get back in year 1
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08-17-2015 , 02:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DonCheadle
To be clear, when you say profit, you're actually referring to gross earnings, right? In these examples, you are still down money during the 1 year period on your $10,000 investment, right?
Yes, poorly worded on my part. Eventually you will be able to sell your REP when it starts trading on an exchange to recoup some or all of your initial investment if you don't want to hold.
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08-17-2015 , 10:51 PM
Who's selling their bitcoins right now with all this forking going on? I still don't really understand it after reading a few articles.

I have thought about selling though
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08-17-2015 , 11:04 PM
I'm surprised by how well it's done. The interest so far does back my original thought that they were marketed in a better way than most other projects similar to them. Hope this carries on until when the platform itself fully launches.
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08-17-2015 , 11:12 PM
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/com...appening_with/

A fork hasn't occurred and won't occur until 75% of users running Bitcoin core switch to XT which may never happen. If it does XT will give two weeks notice that the fork is about to occur. If your coins are on an SPV wallet or held by a third party you likely have nothing to worry about(you're trusting someone else to make the switch).
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08-18-2015 , 01:47 AM
i cant wait for the block size debate to end. also the censorship on /r/bitcoin is tilting.
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08-18-2015 , 02:32 AM
Augur sale so far:
2023.49449384 BTC ~$50k
100437.29038364 ETH ~$110k

Pretty impressive for a first day given that in the ETH sale most people waited until the last day of the lowest price.
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08-18-2015 , 08:17 AM
A decent podcast on Augur: https://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/pos...standing-augur

I listened to it 2 months ago and wasn't paying much attention. It's nice to relisten now to get a better idea.
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