When's wcoop? Maybe....
Pm me.

voting incorrectly is the one that loses you REP. missing one reporting period is supposed to be a pretty minor impact. keep in mind that the reporting period is a month long.

Bush v Gore 2000 is the famous one here, and they've planned for it: there's an unresolved option to vote for.

i've thought about that too, but ultimately i'm not too worried on this front. plus, i want to see real and liquid prediction markets ASAP so if I have to spend a few hours every couple months, then no big deal.

the bigger question is whether they are good at marketing. based on my calculations if they do $1 billion in volume per year, then every year I get back about what I put in.

but like i said, i really want to see prediction markets, so i will put some money in.

Loz, mind sharing your assumptions/methodology regarding your calculation?

It's fairly simple calcs.

Total volume * 0.5% of the volume = Amount distributed to REP holders

So if you put 50,000 in and Augur raises $5m, then you get 1% of that amount.

You can play with the numbers. Amount raised matters, but at its core it's all a bet on whether Augur can get volume or not.

Lurked here for a while and have been following Augur. It seems they are doing okay, liked this video they have promoted and it seems to be successful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yegyih591Jo

The calculation for the annual revenue for REP is as follows

0.005 * Total amount bet on Augur for a year * USD equivalent amount you invest on Oct 1 / USD Amount Augur Raises = Your profit for one year

This assumes you do all the reporting correctly and don't suffer a 20% penalty. Buying REP is not a simple gamble on whether or not Augur gets volume or not. That's what I and most other people would like to bet on, but by buying REP you're gambling on three things.

1. Augur will capture a large portion of the online betting market
2. Augur will not raise much money in this initial IPO
3. The price of eth/btc(whichever you use to buy REP with) will rise between when you buy REP and when the sale closes

I really don't understand why they didn't just put an opening sale price on REP. This would have eliminated #2 and #3 but I think they got greedy and know that people like Loz will just blindly buy REP without knowing what price they're paying.

For an example calc...

USD Amount Augur Raises - I feel 95% confident Augur will raise between $1-$10M. Let's assume they raise $3M. The only way to know for sure is to wait until the last second on Oct 1.

Total amount bet on Augur for a year - According to https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/c..._of_augur_ipo/ 2015 online gambling is $41 billion. So maybe one day they capture $1 billion in bets (which is super optimistic and is not going to happen in 2016) maybe 2020? For 2016 let's say it's $100M (I really have no idea)

USD equivalent amount you invest on Oct 1 - Let's use $10k for the example

0.005 * $100,000,000 * $10,000 / $3,000,000 = $1,667 or 16.7% ROI

Whoopee 16.7% ROI for an optimistic calc that I have to do >6 hours of labor for. I'll let others play with the #s, but I think I'm sitting this sale out.

Moon #s
0.005 * $1,000,000,000 * $10,000 / $1,000,000 = $50,000 or 500% ROI

Super fail #s
0.005 * $10,000,000 * $10,000 / $5,000,000 = $100 or 1% ROI

<3

At the margin, it's in my economic interest for you to convince people that they shouldn't buy REP

In the same spirit, perhaps I should note that neither andr3w321's calculation nor mine is technically correct as the crowdsale purchasers gets 80% of the REP.

Great post, thanks! Cleared up a lot!

I assume Rep is transferable? Say I get tired of resolving bets, can I sell my REP?

if the blockchain forks, what do we need to do to ensure our coins remain safe and usable on the new chain?

yes, REP will be transferable when the network goes live. crowdsale site is live, btw: https://sale.augur.net/

Crowdsale #'s really high so far.

111 btc and 1500 eth so far.

I'm not putting in any more than 1 btc so dont expect to get much REP

Man, less crowd funding talk and more of these 2 unpacking their convo a little.

Mihkel, the way I understand it the market makers don't bare any risks besides currency volatility ?

If your coins are in cold storage or otherwise static they are safe. During a fork they will be on both versions of the blockchain so whichever version wins you will still have your coins. You only risk losing anything when making transactions during a fork, but that wont happen until earliest 2016 and only if 75% of miners are running the new software.

This is correct. You have to multiply by 0.8 since only 80 cents of every dollar you invest is going toward actually purchasing REP. There's also the early buy in bonus which I think you just multiply by 1.15 for so essentially if you buy now 0.8 * 1.15 = 92 cents of every dollar you invest is going toward REP purchase unless I made another mistake.

0.005 * Total amount bet on Augur for a year * USD equivalent amount you invest on Oct 1 / USD Amount Augur Raises * 0.8 * Early buyin bonus = Your profit for one year

Early buy
0.005 * $100,000,000 * $10,000 / $3,000,000 * 0.8 * 1.15 = $1,533 or 15.3% ROI

Last minute buy
0.005 * $100,000,000 * $10,000 / $3,000,000 * 0.8 * 1.0 = $1,333 or 13.3% ROI

To be clear, when you say profit, you're actually referring to gross earnings, right? In these examples, you are still down money during the 1 year period on your $10,000 investment, right?

yes, he's saying that would be what you get back in year 1

Yes, poorly worded on my part. Eventually you will be able to sell your REP when it starts trading on an exchange to recoup some or all of your initial investment if you don't want to hold.

Who's selling their bitcoins right now with all this forking going on? I still don't really understand it after reading a few articles.

I have thought about selling though

I'm surprised by how well it's done. The interest so far does back my original thought that they were marketed in a better way than most other projects similar to them. Hope this carries on until when the platform itself fully launches.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/com...appening_with/

A fork hasn't occurred and won't occur until 75% of users running Bitcoin core switch to XT which may never happen. If it does XT will give two weeks notice that the fork is about to occur. If your coins are on an SPV wallet or held by a third party you likely have nothing to worry about(you're trusting someone else to make the switch).

i cant wait for the block size debate to end. also the censorship on /r/bitcoin is tilting.

Augur sale so far:
2023.49449384 BTC ~$50k
100437.29038364 ETH ~$110k

Pretty impressive for a first day given that in the ETH sale most people waited until the last day of the lowest price.

A decent podcast on Augur: https://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/pos...standing-augur

I listened to it 2 months ago and wasn't paying much attention. It's nice to relisten now to get a better idea.