Also agree with Tooth here, I think it's inevitable on a long enough timescale that the Fed eventually loses control of longend rates. With that said, I don't believe I have a rat's chance in Hell of timing exactly when, so I prefer to focus on other things. Whoever is able to do that will crush on derivatives, no doubt.

It could be soon or it could be years from now -- I have no idea. The door is open for China to make all sorts of moves.

paper profits housenuts.

Lol at you no coiners talking **** at 45k bitcoin as if they have been proven correct

the cognitive dissonance to do that is rather amazing.

Yes lol. I mean you have to take some victory lap when you’ve been historically wrong.


We need more tooth predictions. Those are the best. Maybe like a 10k before 58k?

That is my entire point. What are your conditions to call this rally over, please state a bit more formal than "my grandma called me and i followed my instinct to short the market"?

There is no good or bad in being right or wrong. Our long term profits should provide sufficient validation for our actions. There was heavy FUD, anecdotal evidence and tiktok shills by asian girls going around signalling top since $19k and the market 3X'ed from there.

Last week knew heavy whale action and without trading halts in crypto, those generate quite a bit of volatility. General anxiety about a taper tantrum crash forced people to de-risk their portfolios and speculative assets will bounce back a little slower. Because of this, I simply do not have enough information to call 58k the top of this rally. Events next week can create more clarity and define the end, but they could just as well induce a quick bounce for both bitcoin and eth.

If it turns out you were correct, we will all get an excellent discount on our buys, and that is great news too.

‘ Broad, intuitive qualitative assessments are where the big money is. ’

I’m not sure quite what you mean by ‘the big money’ - perhaps where the most money is invested, or maybe where the largest profits are made?

If it’s either of those I don’t believe it’s true. I think most of the money has been allocated to and profits made by market making, arbitrage and relative value trading in bond, fx and stock markets (in that order)

I'm talking about for a retail trader (us). Of course the big money flows to small edges, fees and market making. Which is why trying to beat them at their game is very stupid.

Ok, I understand.

I think you’re talking at cross purposes with TwoShae then since his approach seems to be more wall street than retail. ‘Niches’ such as defi arbitraging are clearly the best bet for retail if they could understand them - which for above average numeracy people shouldn’t be a problem.

re: discretionary trading

i think this is exactly it and this is exactly what i've slowly and painfully have developed over following crypto news, social media and watching the markets pretty much every single day since 2011.

i fell for the hodl meme and held through 2013 and 2017 and now i think it was suboptimal because in hindsight those tops were easy to call (or get out at 70-80%) knowing what i know now. it's all the same 'new paradigm' euphoria that we saw on social media and from normies on the way up and at the top and the same despair on the way down for 3-4 years and at the bottom.

so over the years i think i've sort of understood the basic macro structure and gotten better at is calibrating the parameters on that structure. i'm under no illusions that i'm right all the time or anything like that, but i think there is so much dumb money in crypto still that you can still use "simple psychology and qualitative indicators" and successfully get out at 80% of the top and avoid 80% of the drawdown. the more dumb money there is, the more it looks like the meme bubble chart. i've been able to use this strategy successfully in the sub-bubbles of crypto (defi farms, algorithmic stablecoins, other crypto ponzifications) and we'll see how i fare when it comes to btc/eth market too.

i think you're leaving a lot of money on the table if you don't do this at least some % of the time with some % of your crypto roll.

i don't preclude the possibility that i am wrong and that i will underperform. binance futures leaderboard will tell at the end.

Tether fud gonna continue

If my accountant is correct, truthfully reporting crypto transactions for one's taxes is a real headache this year.

btc up $3400 since TS returned to the thread today

there were some much higher quality than usual bearish posts today, hope we see more of that. I think the market incentives that arise due to the GBTC premium are particularly important to watch.

Certainly think it's way too early for bears to be spiking the football.... talk all you want about remembering past market cycles... this is not an unusual dip in the slightest when compared to previous parabolic runs. In fact we could still comfortably go much lower and still easily push to higher highs later in the year. I'll be very surprised if that was a market cycle peak.

Obv. You seem to have been in the space for a much longer time than me .
Don’t you think this year should be very different on how it played previously ?
Considering the crisis of covid, all the debts in the world skyrocketing , money printing ( not over yet it seem) with probably coming some big inflation not seen in the last 40 years?
If bitcoin can’t perform in these times ( I personally do not think we’re are out of the woods yet from this health and economic crisis) being considered a store of wealth , than something is totally wrong here .

I am more incline to see a bottom near 40k than bitcoin going back to 20k for example as long as this crisis and money printing still going.

I certainly don’t see bitcoin crashing 50-70% while the stock market will go up significantly.

If bitcoin crash that deep , it wouldn’t be just bitcoin crashing .

I disagree with this but I respect the last sentence where you have a healthy amount of doubt about your own opinion/ability and skin in the game.

Questions:
1. What's your estimated edge on these trades (in APR, if possible... 100% APR = you double your portfolio yearly on these trades)?
2. How many of them can you make a year, and for how much size?

Because I think clearly the answer to (1) is not that large, and the answer to (2) is obviously not that many. If your answer to 1 is very large, you might as well use a lot of leverage to short perps (such that your net position is a very large short when you've identified the top) especially if you can collect funding. If you're that confident you can hit within ~20% of the top, you should have no problem going ~3x levered short for a large % of your stack, especially when the euphoria-tard moonbois want to pay you a fortune to do it.

Saying the '13 and '17 tops were obvious knowing what you know now is the ultimate hindsight bias. '17 was especially tricky because even when BTCUSD started to fall a lot from $20k, ETHUSD absolutely ripped as the erc20 bubble deflated, before eventually nuking a lot harder than BTCUSD. And even if you managed to nail those tops, you'd still have to deploy *all* your dry powder near the (double) bottom which was years later with a massive fakeout rally in between (3k->14k -> 3.3k Black Thursday).

The GBTC trust premium disappearing is simply a basis trade gone wrong for some hedge funds. I think it could reduce funding rates for bitcoin (a trade I have on) but I think has no other price action relevance.
The premium will probably find a new range of -5 to +2

Another dummy falls for the ponzi wave
https://news.bitcoin.com/shark-tanks...sts-portfolio/

Guess fellow shark Mark Cuban shilled him in via DeFi

I am pretty surprised to see Kevin change his mind. I would have thought he'd be up there with Tooth as far as never changing.

Can't be a serious question? I think you know what I meant?

I didn't mean that "bank roll management" in poker actually translates exactly to investing. I have a diverse investment portfolio is all that meant, and that I have a reliable income stream. My whole life is not in bitcoin, that's all I meant lol.

What I have is my evaluation of the technology that makes me believe in its long term value because it's incredibly useful to mankind. Not a gut instinct at all.

I have never tried to time markets. I think it's a waste of effort unlikely to make me any money. It's also BORING. I'd rather play poker. I'd rather do other things for income than attempting to day trade. There are whole firms doing algorithmic trading that I can't compete with. As far as investing, I buy and hold forever. Stock or Crypto. IDK why anyone is talking about selling something they believe has long term value.

Trying to call the top so you can get back in later at a good price? Well I wish you luck I guess. Isn't Shuffle still losing on his sell at $37k or whatever?

I honestly hope it crashes to $20k tomorrow so Shuffle can get some cheap coin. I'll still be buying as well.

that's pretty impressive, you turned a days wage into a 2018 Silverado. You should have bought more than 1 though.

Can't blame a guy for seeing all his friends ride the greater fool theory to big profits, and deciding to jump in. He has no special expertise beyond anyone else. Every person who is just now buying in at these levels is just hoping the bubble keeps getting bigger.

Had more than one but lost them all in a boating accident

Is that really an argument calling it a bubble in 2021.
Isn’t the bonds market a bubble ?
Isn’t the stock market a bubble ?
Isn’t real estate a bubble ?

I mean I just do not understand why bitcoin should consider to be less valuable than any other bubbles out there...

How many US dollar they print since last year ?
4-5 trillions , that is what , 5 times the market cap of bitcoin ?
And I should believe bitcoin is a bubble but the US dollar isn’t , hum ....

Nah he just took 10 minutes of his time to really understand and figure it out

Isn't this the same for every single investment asset anyone ever purchases?

As cringy as some bitcoiners can be, the no coiners are worse.

They cannot fathom that something they don’t understand can have value.

Have you noticed every person on fintwitter and the likes calls everything a bubble or a ponzi now?

So original, so smart...