So you think a big disaster is brewing? That's precisely what I'm making small OOTM bets on.

I traded quite a few tickers today. ASAP is just having a hissy fit because he picked it last week on "technicals" and I'm now in it.

There are specific reasons it will dump on China, more than the market.

It's blindsided me the last couple of weeks - I'm down well into 5 figures on AAPL trades. But that's part of the give and take.

Anyone here scalping names like ITEK or NYMX when they run 100+% intraday?

Yeah I've shorted both of them. Overall down on ITEK and up on NYMX. I've never see anyone who longs these types of trades have any real system that isn't largely discretionary.

These types of names are on my list to explore for systematic momentum scalping and/or liquidity provision. As far as you know, is the action largely pushed by a handful of large discretionary players and/or chatroom syndicates? Are they typically hard to borrow?

Yes and yes. Chatrooms move these stocks quite a bit, but frequently the companies themselves get involved in the promotion.

I dont think a gigantic disaster is on the horizon, but when your stock market wipes off 30% or 3.5 trillion USD in 1 week, leaving pretty much anyone who was on leverage either completely now zero or like -50%+ that has a material impact on household savings, and it has already manifested itself in the -% yoy auto sales figures they just released. People in China seem to be disproportionately exposed to the stock market, and post- crash #1 (since it seems we may be on #2 right now), cars sales slumping is just the beginning, and it will definitely trickle itself down to iphones.

Just too many other technicals beginning to deteriorate for my taste to make a be long on Apple right now. Baidu took a beating today and revised down next q. Yesterday the entire shanghai/shenzhen exchanges where over 50% of stocks got trade stopped at -10%. Like wtf? People are ****ing losing their entire savings like that.

Bought some OWW. It's a merger arb position. If you call 8.60 the downside, which is pretty conservative imo, it's 66% implied completion. Haven't seen a whole lot of info to suggest it's that low of a probability

Before today's bounce, only 35% of stocks were trading above its 200 day moving average. Fewer stocks keep holding the market up while others are entering new bear markets. This bounce is likely a good opportunity to sell positions that have been lagging. I'm hoping the bounce continues leading into the fed meeting tomorrow, at which point I will be adding short positions.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24...d=p68626360738

Yeah, this bounce is great. Bad China overnight + rates and we're going to have the mother all bears tomorrow.

Shorted VIX Aug/Sept spread @ 1.05 and hedged with long EMD (US mid cap stocks) sept futures @ 1476.1 to be market neutral, 6 spread to 1 EMD

My model says VIX Aug is undervalued and Sept is overvalued. I am aware the Sept VIX futures level is higher due to the all important rate hike FOMC meeting, but I don't think that justifies the premium.

I tried providing liquidity for these events with negative results. Most of the time shares are not available for borrowing, so that leaves you either being long or neutral during market making. I really hate the idea of being long when I know for a fact that the stock is overvalued.

Yep, not being able to secure a borrow or having to pay an astronomical rate upfront is annoying and would push this back a bit on my to do list. But with some order anticipation tricks, we should be able to scalp the long side.

Have you backtested this model? The spread will widen significantly over time if spot stays below the front and second month futures. It just looks exactly like the normal low VIX futures curve to me.

I am rooting for you being correct here.

noob question here.
in IB's TWS, how do I change a charts symbol, without all my other charts changing to the same symbol? like if I open a new chart to SPY, all my other charts that were something else change to SPY as well, so now i have 5 charts open of SPY =(
when i was trading a lot 2 years ago I had this figured out, but cant figure out right now.
I was looking through chart settings but couldnt figure it.
thanks

You'll see a green box at the top of the window. That's the "group" of the window. When you click a ticker on one member of a group (for example your watchlist), all the other groups (for example your graph) are updated with that ticker.

So you simply assign another group. Just click on the box and pick another color.

You long vol? Odds are against it (I think each are sub 50%). Maybe 10-20% chance of both coming off. Low VIX today made puts a nice bet, though.

This is all risk adjusted talk. The first month premium to spot is low compared to historical values given vix around 13.5 and 16 days to expiry. The second month premium to spot is about right.

These statements come from my VIX model. I actually developed this VIX model 2 years ago but never really traded it with size. So many things that are seemingly tradeable don't make a lot of sense and I have just been trying to test out strategies using small size and observing the market.

Another observation is the consistent lower vol Dec future. People say that its because there are lots of holidays around that time and markets are usually more quiet (lower vol). It makes sense but its simply not true when I tested it. From 1990 till now, the average Dec VIX settlement value for week 49 to 50 is actually above the average of all VIX settlement value.

EZ PZ

ty TS!

Get a better clearing firm. There are very few that I haven't been to borrow shares for. Locates aren't really that expensive imo. They generally between 1-4 cents but many of these symbols are making 1 pt+ moves

I am 100% cash. I never long VIX futures, but occasionally go long SPY puts to hedge VIX futures when all I've got is contango on my side.

Odds of being long vol going well is generally poor. Right now, I just don't want to sell it. The vol tourists need to be majorly shaken out to make the business worthwhile. They are jumping in far too quickly and it is ruining my gig.

Hilarious picture of the Shanghai Stock Exchange for you all to enjoy.



They've updated the monitors, but the rest is still the same austere layout.

WTF happened with Panera today? #s looked awful. So confused by the AH up 10%. Whipsaw is very real right now.

Buying CMGE. Deal should close this friday at 22.00 and trading at 21.62. Looks like all hurdles have been cleared but I might be missing something

jb or anyone else, any idea what kinda size positions chatrooms collectively take and what their typical targets/holding times are? I'm not active in these names and trying to get a better sense of what type of behavior to expect.

Anyone watching NHTC? That chart is insane.