You're right thought I read the $4.75 offer was all cash. I mean even if H2 doesn't raise their offer why would they turn it down?

A guy I am informally coaching said today "fundamentally, I'm into technicals."

Tooth's head would have exploded.

Picked up a bunch of KORS this morning at 49.25.

Big overreaction, it's trading at like 10x 2015 earnings when you back out their current assets net of liabilities.

The sell down makes no sense, but that's some heavy volume on a small miss. What am I missing?

For entertainment look at the ATM Jan 2017 UVXY straddle.

Looks about fairly priced to me, Brian

It's a momentum name that isn't growing like a rocket ship anymore and is being obliterated. Look at the past 12 months.

They also drastically lowered Q1 earnings versus expectations (78 cents versus 1.05 expected or something like that).

Bigger picture, they're guiding to 4.45 EPS for the following 12 months.

They have 2b in current assets, 450m in total liabilities (for a company with a market cap of ~$10b, fully diluted).

They also haven't even touched China yet, and they just doubled their sales yoy in Japan.

Fairly rare that you have a situation where shorting a straddle is profitable if the underlying goes to zero. (It is fairly priced, just funny)

Shorting KORS 46.74 for a few mins if lucky

The downhill paddy wagon looks like a lot of fun!

Then I may buy and hold.

Covered 46.33

lol

Investing in fashion is not worth it, look at Coach & Kate charts for same sort of madness.

Simply went for a heavy short with a 30 cent trailing stop for a gamble. The only technical trades I will ever do.

I've tripled my position this morning, bought at 49.25 then 48.21 then 47.56 then 46.76. Average price of ~48, third largest position behind HOS & SAFM.

We're trading below 6.0 EV/EBITDA now.

I went with your thesis and bought a small amount after my short. Going to try to forget about it. GL

Portfolio in order of Volume

HOS
CHK
LOW
CMG (short)
KORS

For perspective:

Coach 9.5 EV/EBITDA
Kate Spade 35 EV/EBITDA

Not direct analogues, but close:

Ralph Lauren 8.1 EV/EBITDA
Burberry 14 EV/EBITDA

My port is, in order of position size:

HOS
SAFM + November calls @ 80 (they report tomorrow morning, not expecting any surprises)
KORS
EBIX (short)
NFLX (short)
FSLR (40-55 call option spread, June expiry)
TDW (17.5-25 call option spread, October expiry)
RSX

Couple of micro positions in SCTY & KING that are residual of previous trades.

CHK I've been interested in buying for a while now, but it's just never gotten down to around dirt cheap yet + I think I'd have too much energy exposure with HOS.

I've actually thought a bit more about KORS and I'm pretty damn excited to be buying it here. Little negative change in underlying business led to massive change in security price equaling a cheap valuation.

Out of curiosity, I just ran a screener...of the 1511 North American-traded stocks with market cap >$5 billion, 196 have less than a 7 EV/EBITDA with half of those being energy/financial. If you further limit it down to >$5b, >0 <7 EV/EBITDA, and sales growth of >20% in past year, you end up with just 14 companies, notable ones being American Airlines, AMC Networks, and Micron Technologies. Not that this means anything, other than it is very rare for a company growing sales that rapidly to trade like a downtrodden value stock.

KING is a name some guys at my firm are really bullish on. I scalped it a few times but haven't really been interested in holding investments lately. KING does look very cheap and it really seems like it's being priced that way because it is a tech company that does have earnings and thus can be valued using standard valuation metrics.

What the hell happened to KORS today? I sold long ago, just shocked to see a selloff like this.

Taking a lesson from Peter Lynch, I asked my wife about KORS. She says it's out and wouldn't touch the stock. Fashion is fickle.

Was reading a bunch today about how they made the death sentence of offering super budget handbags, and now they aren't considered luxury anymore. Could see it quickly become "out" in fashion.

It's already on the outs clearly, guidance & comps have been awful this year.

What would you guys play if you believe Gold is going to go higher over the next 3/4 weeks.. non futures play.

Why would this happen? You see the dollar collapsing? Not likely, in fact if you believe in technicals it could be on the verge of a major breakdown. I'm watching it to go short.

GLD for a pure play (because it holds gold and gold and Gilda). GDX if if you want to be indirect and go with miners to have more beta.

CEF if you want to make a play on gold and silver together and would like to take advantage of a decent discount to NAV.

was looking into GLD as you wrote this,, thanks.. i nought some nugt @ 10.96 just to get my beak wet ,, as i saw that was triple and has good volume.. i understand etf's are usually the bad play .. will probably short DUST instead..


ASAP, That is the beauty of the market,, what looks like a breakdown and short to you, looks like a long to me, and vice versa