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2014 Trading Thread 2014 Trading Thread

04-13-2014 , 07:10 PM
I'm enjoying the price movement on ES, though I don't typically monitor it this in depth at this time. The support and resistance is relatively light but is gyrating back and forth rapidly.
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04-13-2014 , 07:39 PM
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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
We are all interns. I'm apparently on "try to minimize your Sharpe ratio" rotation.

For all of you who actually take a minute away from this (lazy bastards!), ES is down 0.4%...
I have been doing some Easter egg hunt thing all day , but a down market is a good market for me right now.
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04-13-2014 , 07:56 PM
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Originally Posted by RaineTech
I'm enjoying the price movement on ES, though I don't typically monitor it this in depth at this time. The support and resistance is relatively light but is gyrating back and forth rapidly.
I like it better when it looks like I am going to have more money tomorrow.

I meant to say earlier that you are probably better off doing your options on SPY. Tighter spreads and quicker fills so less chance of you getting yourself into trouble should things move against you. Also, one less level of complexity when you are directly trading future price instead of future predictions of future prices. (you could look at the longer-dated futures, hint, hint, hint)
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04-13-2014 , 08:09 PM
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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
I like it better when it looks like I am going to have more money tomorrow.

I meant to say earlier that you are probably better off doing your options on SPY. Tighter spreads and quicker fills so less chance of you getting yourself into trouble should things move against you. Also, one less level of complexity when you are directly trading future price instead of future predictions of future prices. (you could look at the longer-dated futures, hint, hint, hint)
Yeah that was ultimately why I chose that option as I agree with all of that. It also happens to be that assuming I execute the way I plan to, SPY options will actually result in rebate commissions unlike ES options. I will be layering and adjusting pretty regularly so it would be incredibly frustrating trying to get fills on futures options in that regard.
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04-13-2014 , 08:23 PM
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Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
I have been doing some Easter egg hunt thing all day , but a down market is a good market for me right now.
I feel the need to say something along my typical line of "blah, blah, blah, risk management, blah, blah blah first rule of investing and trading, blah, blah, blah."

My spidey sense is tingling. It is being highly non-specific in its tingling though. It might be the torta ahogada. Hard to tell the difference.
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04-13-2014 , 09:51 PM
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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
I feel the need to say something along my typical line of "blah, blah, blah, risk management, blah, blah blah first rule of investing and trading, blah, blah, blah."

My spidey sense is tingling. It is being highly non-specific in its tingling though. It might be the torta ahogada. Hard to tell the difference.
Tingling how?
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04-13-2014 , 10:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
I feel the need to say something along my typical line of "blah, blah, blah, risk management, blah, blah blah first rule of investing and trading, blah, blah, blah."

My spidey sense is tingling. It is being highly non-specific in its tingling though. It might be the torta ahogada. Hard to tell the difference.
You telling me to cover some of these trades already ? I have to admit that seeing some of these puts hit almost double digits is a nice feeling , but I don't think it's based on greed. I don't think people are panicking yet and are getting ready to pick a bottom. That usually happens right before a big sell off.
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04-14-2014 , 12:15 AM
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Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
Tingling how?
You really want to know what it is like to have the BTM spidey-sense?

Especially after I tell you that I can't tell you how it from how you feel after a decent torta ahogada?

My ass is clenching and explosive and quite burney.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
You telling me to cover some of these trades already ? I have to admit that seeing some of these puts hit almost double digits is a nice feeling , but I don't think it's based on greed. I don't think people are panicking yet and are getting ready to pick a bottom. That usually happens right before a big sell off.
Nope, you picked well and you are definitely capable of covering when you need to.

Ride 'em like the (w)horse's that they are.

(at some point I will get around to explaining something or other about the horse you are long not being helpful in determining the next day's winner)
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04-14-2014 , 08:36 AM
I just caught that entire ZN futures dip for my most profitable individual trade to date. I was short 6 contracts and it dumped right into my cover near bottom in under 5 seconds. Quite exhilarating to say the least.
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04-14-2014 , 08:36 AM
a solid Bid to $SPX Futures in PM +10.5,(after retail sales beat) and a big reversal off the overnight lows.The market open looks strong,but the close is more important imo
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04-14-2014 , 09:33 AM
Market opening very strong, like others have said it's all about that close.
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04-14-2014 , 11:21 AM
I'm not too worried to about how we close. I'm sure there are traders out there looking to fade today's rally. If we don't close at HOD, I'm not sure it matters.

Retail sales crushing today.....that matters.
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04-14-2014 , 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Mori****a System
I'm in a small position for the june $52.50 puts @ roughly $3.40 for teh lulz.
Hopefully the jinx will not kick in.
thanks mosri****a.. added 10 more june 58 contracts @ 4.44
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04-14-2014 , 02:56 PM
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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
None of us are small children, and nearly all of us have sufficient math skills to multiply by 5. Some of us are even smart enough to know that there are several quite good reasons to use ES contracts instead of SP contracts. That, of course, includes all of us who have the bankroll to bother with either.



If you are going to make claims on wins and losses, you might want to post in real time. We are quite used to yahoos coming along, making random predictions and then claiming that they did exactly the right thing at exactly the right time.

Obviously, this wouldn't describe you, or you would have claimed that you held your long coffee position for a more appropriate length of time. We wouldn't want people doubting a random person on the internet fist pumping on the 50% of the time they were correct, and being silent on the 50% that were losers when you clearly are not such a fellow. How did you do on all the other trades that you were kind enough to post and didn't give any follow up on? A person more incredulous than I am would wonder why you failed to follow up. As I am the most credulous of all traders, I am assuming that you simply forgot and that you entered and exited each with the utmost dexterity.



That would be an excellent story if you gave the times you entered and left the position (whether you slept in today until the correct time are still in it and that is what you mean by "stuck til Sunday") and what the other contract positions actually were. I'd really enjoy reading it.

Make claims huh?

I PMed you this on 01-30-2014 03:55 PM

"I will throw you a bone#2 here. Long coffee."

I think KC was at around 113 range during that time. I would have made you at least 70-80 points by now.

I am not trying to come off as a market guru and ask others to invest in me. I don't need others' money to trade with and I don't want to.

I wanted to help out a small number of you guys on here out of good will but it doesn't matter as you probably didn't even take the trade.
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04-14-2014 , 03:25 PM
It was may 9th puts. But you got the gist of it. Even your jinxing powers are not enough.
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04-14-2014 , 03:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Spirit-of-Wisdom
Make claims huh?

I PMed you this on 01-30-2014 03:55 PM

"I will throw you a bone#2 here. Long coffee."

I think KC was at around 113 range during that time. I would have made you at least 70-80 points by now.

I am not trying to come off as a market guru and ask others to invest in me. I don't need others' money to trade with and I don't want to.

I wanted to help out a small number of you guys on here out of good will but it doesn't matter as you probably didn't even take the trade.
You, on coffee on 2/5:

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Originally Posted by Spirit-of-Wisdom
You are about 2 weeks late. I wouldn't touch it unless you are trying to scalp it. Rothiscild family motto is “Leave the last 10% to someone else.”
So, you missed nearly all of the run?!?

(also, not saying you are trying to get investors, just that fist pumping one out of every five time you post makes you look bad)

Last edited by BrianTheMick2; 04-14-2014 at 03:46 PM.
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04-14-2014 , 03:57 PM
Total ZN JUN 14 (Bought) 39 $124.635417 (avgp) -$4,860,781.25 -$57.33
Total ZN JUN 14 (Sold) -39 $124.703526 (avgp) +$4,863,437.50 -$57.33
Total ZN JUN 14 0 +$2,656.25 -$114.66 (commissions)

What a day.
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04-14-2014 , 04:00 PM
Massive surge is buying on Charles Schwab into close, opened a position into earnings tomorrow AM at $25.20. Wish me luck guys, looks oversold and has a great business.
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04-14-2014 , 04:17 PM
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Originally Posted by ASAP17
Massive surge is buying on Charles Schwab into close, opened a position into earnings tomorrow AM at $25.20. Wish me luck guys, looks oversold and has a great business.
Their recent selloff was hardly anything. The financial services sector as a whole has been underperforming and they've followed pretty much the same trend as the XLF etf. This whole war against high frequency trading is going to really hurt charles schwab from a revenue perspective going forward. Not just in the revenue generated from the rebate system, but in potential fear from personal investors that don't know a lot who are becoming weary of what's happening with HFT. Playing this into earnings is a complete gamble imo and I honestly wouldn't be all that surprised to see it beat projections slightly and still move down tomorrow if the markets move down too.
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04-14-2014 , 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted by savant111
I'm not too worried to about how we close. I'm sure there are traders out there looking to fade today's rally. If we don't close at HOD, I'm not sure it matters.

Retail sales crushing today.....that matters.
It was an ugly reversal/slide off the morning highs-but a very strong close.My ears are hearing a big HF in trouble,but the bounce was pretty impressive.

Still bullish
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04-14-2014 , 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by RaineTech
Their recent selloff was hardly anything. The financial services sector as a whole has been underperforming and they've followed pretty much the same trend as the XLF etf. This whole war against high frequency trading is going to really hurt charles schwab from a revenue perspective going forward. Not just in the revenue generated from the rebate system, but in potential fear from personal investors that don't know a lot who are becoming weary of what's happening with HFT. Playing this into earnings is a complete gamble imo and I honestly wouldn't be all that surprised to see it beat projections slightly and still move down tomorrow if the markets move down too.
Options are betting on a decent beat, I'm following them. I think the fear over HFT is overblown, will have tight limits set but I see way more upside than down off the recent slide.
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04-14-2014 , 04:35 PM
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Originally Posted by RaineTech
Their recent selloff was hardly anything. The financial services sector as a whole has been underperforming and they've followed pretty much the same trend as the XLF etf. This whole war against high frequency trading is going to really hurt charles schwab from a revenue perspective going forward. Not just in the revenue generated from the rebate system, but in potential fear from personal investors that don't know a lot who are becoming weary of what's happening with HFT. Playing this into earnings is a complete gamble imo and I honestly wouldn't be all that surprised to see it beat projections slightly and still move down tomorrow if the markets move down too.
The market as a whole was getting bought up into the close.

Those headlines about the retail brokerages selling off on HFT concerns is a joke. The brokerage's revenues come from very different places. Etrade is probably commission heavy while Schwab revenue comes from fees tied to total assets.
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04-14-2014 , 04:51 PM
Thoughts on Akebia Therapeutics? Crazy upgrade by MS to $90 today, would mean ridiculous upside still ahead.
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04-14-2014 , 04:56 PM
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Originally Posted by jb514
The market as a whole was getting bought up into the close.

Those headlines about the retail brokerages selling off on HFT concerns is a joke. The brokerage's revenues come from very different places. Etrade is probably commission heavy while Schwab revenue comes from fees tied to total assets.
1. Fully aware of the first statement.

2.
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One look at Charles Schwab's 2013 annual report and you can see why the bears came out in full force on this news. In 2012 the brokerage took in $236 million from "other revenue" sources. One of the sources was payment for order flow.

From the report:

Other revenue – net decreased by $20 million, or 8%, in 2013 compared to 2012 primarily due to a non-recurring gain of $70 million relating to a confidential resolution of a vendor dispute in the second quarter of 2012 and realized gains of $35 million from the sales of securities available for sale in 2012, partially offset by an increase in order flow revenue that Schwab began receiving in November 2012.

Other revenue – net increased by $96 million, or 60%, in 2012 compared to 2011 primarily due to a non-recurring gain of $70 million relating to a confidential resolution of a vendor dispute mentioned above. In November 2012, the Company began receiving additional order flow rebates from market venues to which client orders are routed for execution. Order flow revenue increased by $23 million due to this revenue and the inclusion of a full year of optionsXpress’ order flow revenue.
Obviously we all know schwab does way more than just act as a brokerage in comparison to a company like etrade, and it's quite clear that the various guesses around the web, ranging from $100-300m/year of revenue for them from HFT rebates for order flow, isn't a whole lot compared to their overall revenue. The stock could very well beat and do very well tomorrow, or miss and still do well. But creating an argument of why headlines are a joke (to which I agree obviously) as a defense is pure nonsense. The huge momo runup was from headlines and great stories and influential media reports. To say that it only benefits/hurts companies like Tesla but not Schwab is irrational.
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04-14-2014 , 05:21 PM
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Originally Posted by ASAP17
Thoughts on Akebia Therapeutics? Crazy upgrade by MS to $90 today, would mean ridiculous upside still ahead.
MS is not above pumping small Biotech. UBS was parading around PRAN when it was trading 5x what it is now.
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