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2014 Trading Thread 2014 Trading Thread

03-06-2014 , 01:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
Anybody want to chime in on CYTK. I bought at 9.93 the same day I bought EA. Popped 11% yesterday morning and has been on a straight light down ever since.

Still got a 4% gain on it as of now. This one falls in the normal volatility category I was criticized for earlier in the week. I'm guessing the consensus would be to hold rather than lock up quick profits. Nothing has changed with the stock's story, but it a very volatile and 11.13 is probably going to be a ceiling for a little bit.
Volatile stock is being volatile. Nothing wrong with setting a price target to sell. In fact, I'd say that if nothing changed, you should have had a target already.

Was your price target 11.13? If not, and nothing has changed (other than it popped on a buy recommendation then settled back) you are being too short sighted. Let your winners ride.

If your thesis had changed (or you figured out that you were wrong), then you cut and run.

edit: it looks like you posted at almost the low of the day (so far).
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03-06-2014 , 01:55 PM
Thanks. I'm going to hold.

EA killing it too. Worth looking into before Titanfall comes out

Edit: Brian I did have a price target for the trade in the high 12's. (Over a month or so, not a day). Wasn't expecting it to pop so hard though.

Last edited by savant111; 03-06-2014 at 02:01 PM.
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03-06-2014 , 02:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
Edit: Brian I did have a price target for the trade in the high 12's. (Over a month or so, not a day). Wasn't expecting it to pop so hard though.
Good!
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03-06-2014 , 02:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkeezinIt
rafiki how much to change your avatar?
make me an offer
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03-06-2014 , 03:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
Was in that last year if you recall, it swings like mad. I just learned to accept the biotech madness, eventually.

What you think of AMPE? Getting into buy range for me, same sector.
Now that you mention it I do recall. Was that the one you and MKind were both trading?

Don't know AMPE. Chart is threatening to breakdown though. Price is below all it's upward trend lines.

Biotechs getting hammered today in general. Hopefully it's just money rotating
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03-06-2014 , 03:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spirit-of-Wisdom
Short gold.

1270-1312 heavy resistance.
Oops.
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03-06-2014 , 03:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spirit-of-Wisdom
I trade Asian indexes and I could tell you that things aren't looking bullish. JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley liquidated a chunk of their holdings in the last a couple of days out of Asian market and holding onto cash.

Just wait for the news on Wednesday.
Oops. AAXJ up over 5% since then.
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03-06-2014 , 03:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spirit-of-Wisdom
You are about 2 weeks late. I wouldn't touch it unless you are trying to scalp it. Rothiscild family motto is “Leave the last 10% to someone else.”
You spelled "the last 42%" wrong, unless you meant two weeks prior to posting this which would be "the last 69%." That is a lot to leave on the table on a trade.

Everyone already knows that I normally don't do that sort of thing... Random PMs are random PMs.
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03-06-2014 , 03:57 PM
For anyone who has been looking at using VXX or similar things to hedge (or hoping to profit). VIX is up today and VXX is still losing money. Just not as much as it normally does.
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03-06-2014 , 04:25 PM
Can we talk ecigarette plays? Do you guys think the public (if any) ecig producers will start getting acquired? I 100% believe in this business - it helped me quit smoking, as well as about 4 of my friends, my uncle, etc. Big tobacco is getting in now so I don't see legislation really destroying the business as big tobacco has the lobbying power that the smaller players don't. I'm going to start doing some work on the industry, I've been a fan for a long time but was worried about legislation destroying the industry. Anyone have any ideas?
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03-06-2014 , 09:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by curlyface
Can we talk ecigarette plays? Do you guys think the public (if any) ecig producers will start getting acquired? I 100% believe in this business - it helped me quit smoking, as well as about 4 of my friends, my uncle, etc. Big tobacco is getting in now so I don't see legislation really destroying the business as big tobacco has the lobbying power that the smaller players don't. I'm going to start doing some work on the industry, I've been a fan for a long time but was worried about legislation destroying the industry. Anyone have any ideas?
Should probably do some more research here. Marlboro is creating "smokeless" cigarettes where real tobacco is actually heated to create a vapor with nicotene but no smoke comes out. This should gain much more market share much faster than e-cigarettes will. Of course this is subjective, but really when it comes down to it, what do you think people would rather switch from real cigarettes to? Something with real tobacco or a plastic electronic device?
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03-06-2014 , 10:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by curlyface
Can we talk ecigarette plays? Do you guys think the public (if any) ecig producers will start getting acquired? I 100% believe in this business - it helped me quit smoking, as well as about 4 of my friends, my uncle, etc. Big tobacco is getting in now so I don't see legislation really destroying the business as big tobacco has the lobbying power that the smaller players don't. I'm going to start doing some work on the industry, I've been a fan for a long time but was worried about legislation destroying the industry. Anyone have any ideas?
From what some smokers tell me lorillard (LO) makes the best e-cig at this time. They are a 19 billion dollar company so I'm not sure how much of their business is e-cigs, they are known as a tobacco company.
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03-07-2014 , 02:20 AM
I read the BYD conf call transcripts and figured I'd post my thoughts since so many readers are interested in gaming stocks w online exposure.

My overall opinion is meh...

They're doing a little better. Net loss was less than the same quarter a year ago. revenue is up 9%

Sounded like M&A is unlikely in the near term (this got a lot of follow up questions from analysts).

As for NJ online gaming. They basically said they are in-line with their expectations and geolocation issues are improving which should help build traffic. They also want to get 3G/4G accessibility for IOS so you don't need wifi to play on iPhones/iPads (it's out already for androids).

They also said that 85% of online poker players registered to borgata.com have not played B&M in at least two years. This is good because it shows online is not cannabalizing B&M. Also it gives them an audience to market to try and bring to the B&M.

Also borgata.com has 35% market share in jersey. 45% if you take partypoker into account.

My overall opinion is to take a pass in BYD. Gun to my head, I'd say it probably goes higher, but there are better trades out there. They've had a good run too. A lot of this is probably baked in.

Last edited by savant111; 03-07-2014 at 02:27 AM.
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03-07-2014 , 03:19 AM
Anyone know why health care was down yesterday?
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03-07-2014 , 03:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
Anyone know why health care was down yesterday?
I'm not sure there is a reason. Volume was huuuuge. I think some big players got out and that caused panic selling by others.
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03-07-2014 , 08:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by curlyface
Can we talk ecigarette plays? Do you guys think the public (if any) ecig producers will start getting acquired? I 100% believe in this business - it helped me quit smoking, as well as about 4 of my friends, my uncle, etc. Big tobacco is getting in now so I don't see legislation really destroying the business as big tobacco has the lobbying power that the smaller players don't. I'm going to start doing some work on the industry, I've been a fan for a long time but was worried about legislation destroying the industry. Anyone have any ideas?
I bought VPCO in jan
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03-07-2014 , 08:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
Now that you mention it I do recall. Was that the one you and MKind were both trading?

Don't know AMPE. Chart is threatening to breakdown though. Price is below all it's upward trend lines.

Biotechs getting hammered today in general. Hopefully it's just money rotating
Ya me and him were in CYTK, INO, AMPE, CPRX, QCOR and some other bio's. That's when I learned to suffer 15%-30% moves in a day in that industry and try not to get whipsawed. I got my ass handed to me holding CYTK into one of their conferences though, the market reacts so damn strongly to them presenting trial data. That's another mistake I won't make in biotech. You have to have a lot of gamble in you to want to hold in a binary event like that. I shunned the stock after, looks like they recovered nicely. Same happened to me in ZNGA, I just felt too awful from the loss to look at it again. I think I have that leak plugged now though, took a lot of emotion out of all my trading (both the highs and lows).
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03-07-2014 , 08:50 AM
lol I really did take a bad 3 months to go back to the books and improve my skills though. Almost everything I was in went parabolic. Reason I know I'm prepared to be a better trader now is that I don't have remorse for missing most of this run. I used to feel crazy remorse for missing 20-100%.
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03-07-2014 , 09:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
Ya me and him were in CYTK, INO, AMPE, CPRX, QCOR and some other bio's. That's when I learned to suffer 15%-30% moves in a day in that industry and try not to get whipsawed. I got my ass handed to me holding CYTK into one of their conferences though, the market reacts so damn strongly to them presenting trial data. That's another mistake I won't make in biotech. You have to have a lot of gamble in you to want to hold in a binary event like that. I shunned the stock after, looks like they recovered nicely. Same happened to me in ZNGA, I just felt too awful from the loss to look at it again. I think I have that leak plugged now though, took a lot of emotion out of all my trading (both the highs and lows).
Did you sell your QCOR? I did. I was up 10% or so and I got out with a slight loss. Not sure what to make of it.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using 2+2 Forums
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03-07-2014 , 12:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RaineTech
Should probably do some more research here. Marlboro is creating "smokeless" cigarettes where real tobacco is actually heated to create a vapor with nicotene but no smoke comes out. This should gain much more market share much faster than e-cigarettes will. Of course this is subjective, but really when it comes down to it, what do you think people would rather switch from real cigarettes to? Something with real tobacco or a plastic electronic device?
I actually think that straight nicotine is preferred to tobacco. It's healthier, cheaper, choice of flavors, and the smell is considerably less obnoxious.

Personally, I quit and never looked back and so did many people I know as well as testimonials all over the internet. I also think regardless of what Marlboro invents, it will have to be a 'plastic electronic device', how else is it going to heat an element to produce vapor?
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03-07-2014 , 12:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
I bought VPCO in jan
Thinking about VPCO myself. I'm worried, though, that these modifiable ecigs have a little bit of a learning curve and people will just opt for that gas station garbage that big tobacco is currently producing.
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03-07-2014 , 01:35 PM
had to cover half my GRPN @ 8.50 , this COUP valuation might give some institutions an idea or two.

i will look into this vpco
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03-07-2014 , 01:41 PM
I'd be setting up for a market fear move into close, like last week. Leveraged with the right options (basically, high profit hi beta stuff, perhaps with an aura of bad news), I think you could see some decent moves. Not a super high probability play but payoff is there IMO.
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03-07-2014 , 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSoother
I'd be setting up for a market fear move into close, like last week. Leveraged with the right options (basically, high profit hi beta stuff, perhaps with an aura of bad news), I think you could see some decent moves. Not a super high probability play but payoff is there IMO.
i agree, i sense that the market is starting to reverse,, i sold off my KNDI @ 19.21 avg ,, i will force myself to buy back when its above 20.50
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03-07-2014 , 02:17 PM
ebay seems to be ready to reverse.. i got some in 59.20 and i have been looking at it trade and it looks like it wants to sell off soon ..
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