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2014 Trading Thread 2014 Trading Thread

06-05-2014 , 12:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jb514
DDD was a secondary offering so the standard TA doesn't exactly apply. IMO we need more secondary talk here. I feel likes there's an edge there
Please share.

I usually just avoid or lose money. See KORS a few years ago. Even TWTR this year, though I still liked that one.
2014 Trading Thread Quote
06-05-2014 , 01:40 AM
I'm not really sure what the strategy is but I see a lot of guys trading them. I think they are mostly long and watching price relative to the deal price. I think it's also a longer timeframe trade as in several hours to several days. I've been watching the recents ones like RXN DDD BEE FN BAH GLUU but haven't really picked up anything too noteworthy. BEE looked interesting. Opened right at the deal price and straight up from there. We should follow through with this. We can probably crack it.

Thinking back I remember people talking about crushing AIG on a secondary which was 9/11/2012
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06-05-2014 , 02:06 AM
Fwiw I think I'm going to add more YHOO soon. It's already my largest core position but as my account continues to grow from futures trading I sort of want to slightly reduce my AOL position which is only slightly profitable atm when earnings hedging is included to the tally (long from 40.04 but hedged the earnings fail and am now up a bit.) I am a strong believer in pushing the positions I hold enormous conviction in and have never believed in the "diversification ideology."
2014 Trading Thread Quote
06-05-2014 , 08:25 AM
Hey RT, how are you drawing/perceiving fib levels in the ES for determining the resistance levels? I guess specifically which swing/time frame are you drawing off?
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06-05-2014 , 09:56 AM
Did anyone else get the exposure fee warning for 6/13 from IB?
They are going to start charging me every day, and I can't yet figure out how they are computing it.

https://individuals.interactivebroke...ees&p=exposure
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06-05-2014 , 10:35 AM
The move in gold exclusively because of the new negative deposit rate the ECB just set?
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06-05-2014 , 10:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBiceps
Did anyone else get the exposure fee warning for 6/13 from IB?
They are going to start charging me every day, and I can't yet figure out how they are computing it.

https://individuals.interactivebroke...ees&p=exposure
Are you short any options? I didn't get anything. How much have they said you could be charged?
2014 Trading Thread Quote
06-05-2014 , 11:08 AM
Man today has been really awesome to watch. I really don't understand how Draghi thinks these little moves are optimal though. Everyone anticipated a looser policy than what he did and it fails again.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cwar
Hey RT, how are you drawing/perceiving fib levels in the ES for determining the resistance levels? I guess specifically which swing/time frame are you drawing off?
I moved over to my laptop for a bit but when I get back to my desktop I'll draw it out and explain it, just too difficult on this. "Technically" we did see a 10 point correction just in today! In reality, as I said from before big bullish news will thwart any TA so it's kind of irrelevant now, 1930 is the key hold for the day.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBiceps
Did anyone else get the exposure fee warning for 6/13 from IB?
They are going to start charging me every day, and I can't yet figure out how they are computing it.

https://individuals.interactivebroke...ees&p=exposure
That is insane imo, and I hate that the fee as it at their own discretion. I didn't receive this but I'm a bit shocked to see it tbh.
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06-05-2014 , 12:04 PM
Getting f'd this month,

4 straight down days - bad ones too.
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06-05-2014 , 12:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cwar
Are you short any options? I didn't get anything. How much have they said you could be charged?
~$17/day per $1M excess exposure
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06-05-2014 , 12:21 PM
back on the saddle, this market just chugs along eh ??

nice call on URI savant, i knew i should have bought that day it went down to like 88 .
2014 Trading Thread Quote
06-05-2014 , 12:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cwar
Hey RT, how are you drawing/perceiving fib levels in the ES for determining the resistance levels? I guess specifically which swing/time frame are you drawing off?
Okay so I drew a quick chart for you based off the hourly ES_F that I was using and since it's upward trending I took it from the lowest point to the highest point at any time before I had done the study previously - in this case 1924.25 was the peak before june 3rd. I don't do these too often since it's not always required on big news days but yesterday was just slow. You can see the chart here showing the first retracement line at 76.4% shows 1910 being the first resistance level in a correction which is where I had gotten that number from before. It's tough to see I guess since there's a bunch of **** in the way but it's the 2nd line from the top one. If it were downward trending I'd draw it from top to bottom instead.

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06-05-2014 , 12:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBiceps
Getting f'd this month,

4 straight down days - bad ones too.
Muni CEFs hurt my feelings pretty bad up until today.

The solution to your IB problem is to reduce your exposure to deep out of the money short options. Just pretend that the margin rules got tighter.
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06-05-2014 , 12:36 PM
VIX falling off a cliff, market continues to chug along. Lots of buying today especially in small caps.
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06-05-2014 , 12:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
Muni CEFs hurt my feelings pretty bad up until today.

The solution to your IB problem is to reduce your exposure to deep out of the money short options. Just pretend that the margin rules got tighter.
Yes, I already know and will do that.

Will probably only have to pay it for one week, since the majority of my exposure expires on June 19/20.
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06-05-2014 , 12:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
VIX falling off a cliff, market continues to chug along. Lots of buying today especially in small caps.
really looks like a capitulating day ...stunned traders,shorts,bears finally throwing in the towel?

just sold rest of SPY $194.52 and of QQQ 92.32 in trading acct

still long GDX and IWM for continued long exposure,and the rest of t/a in cash 75%

all IRA/401ks will be sold at close,and stay in ~75% CASH

2014 Trading Thread Quote
06-05-2014 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDempster
really looks like a capitulating day ...stunned traders,shorts,bears finally throwing in the towel?

just sold rest of SPY $194.52 and of QQQ 92.32 in trading acct

still long GDX and IWM for continued long exposure,and the rest of t/a in cash 75%

all IRA/401ks will be sold at close,and stay in ~75% CASH


which is why i took like 10 days off.. after hpq and crm reversing on me.
, still have those two, about to get hit on the hpq june 6 puts.
2014 Trading Thread Quote
06-05-2014 , 12:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
back on the saddle, this market just chugs along eh ??

nice call on URI savant, i knew i should have bought that day it went down to like 88 .
Thanks man. I considered adding to URI on this round of buying, but liked EA better. I wanted a little high beta exposure too which is why I bought FB.

Freaking ZNGA keeping EA down though. Pretty sure I would of gotten the breakout today otherwise.

Thanks Raintech for keeping me out of TBT
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06-05-2014 , 12:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
Thanks Raintech for keeping me out of TBT
What's TBT out of curiosity and how did I keep you out of it?
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06-05-2014 , 01:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RaineTech
What's TBT out of curiosity and how did I keep you out of it?
It's the famous ETF shorting the 20 year that is very talked about at the moment.
2014 Trading Thread Quote
06-05-2014 , 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RaineTech
What's TBT out of curiosity and how did I keep you out of it?
Ha...it's an ETF that is 2x short the the 20 year.

Your post about Dragi yesterday got me thinking A bond play on Wed was a bad idea, with big news coming on Thurs. (I.e lower rates in Europe might cause buying in US bonds on Thurs).

Saved me a few sheckles. I still may take the trade, yesterday was wrong time though.
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06-05-2014 , 01:21 PM
I wish I was smart enough to throw in the towel.

I threw in the towel November last year, and then took it out of the laundry bin in February for more pain.
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06-05-2014 , 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
Ha...it's an ETF that is 2x short the the 20 year.

Your post about Dragi yesterday got me thinking A bond play on Wed was a bad idea, with big news coming on Thurs. (I.e lower rates in Europe might cause buying in US bonds on Thurs).

Saved me a few sheckles. I still may take the trade, yesterday was wrong time though.
Ah yeah I've been watching the 10 year futures all day, missed the boat up. Looks pretty overbought though tbh but volume has dropped off a cliff so it would have to be a swing into tomorrow if I were to take it here at 124'175. Seems like a bad spot though when we haven't seen how asian markets will react to it tonight.
2014 Trading Thread Quote
06-05-2014 , 01:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
Muni CEFs hurt my feelings pretty bad up until today.
I took at tiny position in VCV this morning.

Will add as it declines, because the chart and sector look sort of bad right now.

I used to have many muni CEFs (8-10 of them, at about 3% each), but currently only two tiny positions in PMM and VCV, 1-2% each.
2014 Trading Thread Quote
06-05-2014 , 02:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBiceps
I took at tiny position in VCV this morning.

Will add as it declines, because the chart and sector look sort of bad right now.

I used to have many muni CEFs (8-10 of them, at about 3% each), but currently only two tiny positions in PMM and VCV, 1-2% each.
I don't really know what to think about the charts. The Nuveen ones are doing their mergers btw...
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