*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** - Page 46 - Poker News

I don't know about everyone else but I'm dying to see durrrr upswing like crazy next session so it stays close.

I want to see a sick swingy match where they trade the lead every 5-10k hands and the winner isn't clear until the VERY end.

But this isn't a movie so I doubt it will be that melodramatic

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08-27-2010 , 12:26 PM

#1127

aesthetics

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 5,514

i think durrr is winning

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08-27-2010 , 12:27 PM

#1128

chinz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 9,061

Quote:

Originally Posted by jungleboy

lol @ how much ftp ****ed up today, first the interview with tom

Quote:

then results of jungle/durr being added onto the plo challenge with patrik

Tom said that's his fault, not FTPs, or something like that.

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and finally that graph that was posted by a ftp rep is missing 180k ish from the results today.

Read the "last updated" part... It's not updated in real time.

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08-27-2010 , 12:27 PM

#1129

mrrpb

banned

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,592

I think we'll see a big difference when durrr has more money on ftp

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08-27-2010 , 12:27 PM

#1130

solinar

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 223

Also, Jungleman, post an EV graph!

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08-27-2010 , 12:29 PM

#1131

mrrpb

banned

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,592

Over 1100 people viewing NVG right now wtf?

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08-27-2010 , 12:31 PM

#1132

Kaizer1981

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 101

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08-27-2010 , 12:32 PM

#1133

CliffLee

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 3,005

Quote:

Originally Posted by jungleboy

lol @ how much ftp ****ed up today, first the interview with tom, then results of jungle/durr being added onto the plo challenge with patrik and finally that graph that was posted by a ftp rep is missing 180k ish from the results today.

can they do anything right?

Is there a link to this interview?

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08-27-2010 , 12:33 PM

#1134

mrrpb

banned

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,592

Since he's viewing the thread, well done on booking a win in the first session jungleman, please post graphs w/ ev and showdown

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08-27-2010 , 12:33 PM

#1135

ekky

banned

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 2,261

Quote:

Originally Posted by CliffLee

Is there a link to this interview?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-odWT2A1DCM

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08-27-2010 , 12:34 PM

#1136

Asgrow13

adept

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 1,094

Everyone needs to stop being so shortsighted. It's 13 buyins and 6k hands, that's nothing for a high stakes, aggressive HU match. Durrrr is up 50 buyins on PA and even that is probably largely due to variance. Relax and see what happens before you declare this thing over with.

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08-27-2010 , 12:35 PM

#1137

punter11235

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 8,210

Quote:

Everyone needs to stop being so shortsighted. It's 13 buyins and 6k hands, that's nothing for a high stakes

Assuming none of them has an edge can someone do the math what are the chances of Jungleman winning now assuming standard std dev for HU ?

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08-27-2010 , 12:36 PM

#1138

deadoralive500

stranger

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 13

Quote:

Originally Posted by uistbhoy

lol

Serious question sir.

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08-27-2010 , 12:36 PM

#1139

uistbhoy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 11,612

Quote:

Originally Posted by deadoralive500

Serious question sir.

oh, i know, but well phrased

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08-27-2010 , 12:37 PM

#1140

jungleboy

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 649

Quote:

Originally Posted by chinz

Tom said that's his fault, not FTPs, or something like that.

Read the "last updated" part... It's not updated in real time.

well he would say that, its been known for at least a week or two that they was going to be starting v soon... maybe ftp's support were the only ppl in the poker community who didn't know?

waiting until the last minute to make the tables/get a page up on there website that its going down isn't great marketing...

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08-27-2010 , 12:39 PM

#1141

smiecimackaa

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 2,022

Quote:

Originally Posted by punter11235

Assuming none of them has an edge can someone do the math what are the chances of Jungleman winning now assuming standard std dev for HU ?

nobody knows "standard std dev for hu"

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08-27-2010 , 12:39 PM

#1142

ohboy1823

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 97

Lol at comparing plo variance to Nlhe. NO reply necessary, just dead it here!

Quote:

Originally Posted by solinar

I know PLO and NLHE have different levels of variance, but if you look at Patrick's and Durrrr's graph from their challenge, there have been plenty of +/- $500k to $1MM sessions that have been less than 5k hands. In 2000 hands (20,200 through 22,200) Durrrr goes from +1.3MM to -200k. In 2000 hands (32,000 through 34,000) Durrrr goes from +1MM to +2.5MM

Time will tell, but I'm thinking 600k over 6000 hands in a highly aggressive HU NLHE match means next to nothing as far as determining skill level of the opponents.

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08-27-2010 , 12:39 PM

#1143

vaqerro

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 367

I'm pretty sure this is going exactly according to plan for durrrr. He knows he has a big edge so there's no point in coming out and dominating and risking a buyout. Better to tank the first half of the challenge, throw off some fake tells, give jungleman a false confidence.

Hop off the jungleman bandwagon while you still can boys.

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08-27-2010 , 12:42 PM

#1144

BoterSmoter

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 2,238

Quote:

Originally Posted by punter11235

Assuming none of them has an edge can someone do the math what are the chances of Jungleman winning now assuming standard std dev for HU ?

0 bb/100 edge.
100 bb/100 SD (might be higher, im not sure for HU NLHE)
50K hands.

This are the probability of the downswing sizes. As you see, the probability of hitting a 10BI downswing of the course of 50K hands is about 95%.

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08-27-2010 , 12:43 PM

#1145

Faustfan

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 465

Quote:

Originally Posted by deadoralive500

With 10% of the hands played and Jungleman being up 500k, can he Phil Hellmuth it up and nit it all the way?

Also,

Can Durrrr Patrik Antonius it up and just not finish the challenge?

well, in 45k hands he still has to post 13.5 million in blinds, so he should play at least some hands

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08-27-2010 , 12:44 PM

#1146

joeykukzMsu

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 46

why dosent durrr buyin deep, and put the pressure on.. i know jungle was probably sold a ton of his action, but with durrrs deeper BR wouldnt that be a better option? i know HU at this skill level there is a lot comming into play but durrr taking down a few big pots and making the $$ a pressure point has to help him.

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08-27-2010 , 12:45 PM

#1147

losesoonerthanlate

journeyman

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 391

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArcadianSky

You are talking sample size...
You say "I KNEW durrrr had 0 chance"...as if THIS session confirms that.

It's an absurdly stupid thing to say. It's 1/10 of the hands, nothing is "known" and this session doesn't support your opinion whatsoever.

So good that he's broke now and hasn't climbed back up. Right?

LOl your stupid beyond believe he lost at plo and crushed at nl. And you have no faking clue if he is playing on other sites, right? thought so!!