lol

just bc a variance sim will produce a wide spectrum of results doesn't mean that the results of this match will fall on either extreme of that spectrum. while thats possible, whats ur point? if you don't like the format, don't side bet on it.

Yeah nice interview.

I would agree that Galfond would be weak in this field for the reasons outlined by Polk as to why he might have an edge on Sauce i.e. not specializing at HU NL. And that's Sauce he is talking about who has played a lot more NL than Galfond. For sure guys like Polk view Galfond as weak at their level. He has good winnings at NL but those were in weak ring games when the gravy was easier. This is a different ball game. Galfond simply can't be up to speed with these guys.

I would also expect Denoking/Willhasha to show up for this superstar thing and probably Ben86 too.

I think Kanu is the best. I want to see Kanu v Jungle over a reasonable volume. That's the one I really really really wanna rail.

I appreciate that it is most likely to fall somewhere in the middle rather than at either extreme of the spectrum

My point is that I see only a % here or there of possible edge for either player (I personally think probably Sauce has that few % but could be wrong) and those few % will easily be negated by say a 60/40 variance swing in either direction. Such a variance swing of greater than 10% in either players favor is likely to happen and as you said there is also the possibility of it falling on either extreme of the spectrum. What is very unlikely is that the variance will be close to 50/50 and will likely be greater than the edge of either player. So yeah, I think variance will likely decide it and somewhere in the region of 99% sure of that variance deciding this rather than an edge. Well, maybe closer to 95% but of course it is a figure that is impossible to estimate with any accuracy.

Also, just for the record: I have no interest in side bets and said so in an earlier post. I think the format is fine though maybe 300bb before split would be better...

i would suggest that some basic stat texts would help some posters above better understand how this might be expected to play out

looking to book a small amount of action on sauce at evens, pm me please

ok I guess I'll book some bets on WCG at even money.

500+ PM me

A lot of poor understanding of statistics and probability in this thread...

pm sent! gotta get a hundo on this for the sweat.

Want to bet on WCG at evens anywhere between $50 - $200. PM me.

Good interview. He comes across as far more likeable than in previous interviews.

15K hands is pretty lol, may aswell flip a coin, its not like either guys edge will be anything close the effect variance will have

100% agreed. 50K hands obviously isn't enough either but at lease its more of a reasonable sample.

Saying that, it would be excellent to have a challenge completed and it's fun to rail so I'm not complaining.

I'm shocked that he doesn't use a HUD. I know Jungle uses the HUD a decent amount (think he mentioned it in an interview).

You're wrong...

If we assume that one player has a 2 bb/100 edge, with a standard deviation of 100, the better player will have an almost 60% chance of victory. Even a 1 bb/100 edge means 55% chance of victory.

stdev should be higher though. mine is around 135

^ way higher than 100 SD in HUNL.

my first thought was "wow, this gonna be epic" .... but then i realized, that i saw way too many HU challenges ... anyway, i gave it a thought and have the perfect solution:

instead of playing HU, both should invest some money in hookers, like 2 each. Then they will let them wrestle in a mud fight ... or just let them just touch and kiss each other.

the whole thing will be obv streamed and nvgtards will vote, which team has won. So Sauce and Rider can still have a big sidebet on the line ...

this obv

Fair enough. Thank you for that. I have not studied any of this stuff but have played a lot of hands HU and done fine.


I'm wondering how accurate is a variance simulator with regard to specific key hands? I'm not talking about an all in EV graph. Irrespective of when the money goes in, let's say that over the 15k sample there are 50 hands of 200bb and one player wins 30 of them, assuming that each player has a hand that neither will lay down (set v st8 or 2 pair v 2 pair or whatever), how precise will the sim be in highlighting this luck factor of a 2000bb swing in either direction? It more than overrides the 300bb edge over 15k hands that 2 bb/100 would give.

It's like all in EV graphs saying player X got it in good 70% of the time v player Y but it doesn't account for player Y having, a large % of the time, a slightly worse hand that neither player would likely lay down.

If this post is off the radar and clueless that's ok. I have no probs with that being pointed out but I would like to know more specifically how and why if I am wrong.

For the people wanting WCG at evens, it is probably going to be very hard to get these odds. WCG said in his pokercast that he was winning at like 10bb/100 vs sauce this year over like 10k hands. Just a thought if your looking to book action for a sweat on this match

I just tried this variance simulator:
http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/


I was wrong about 15k hands being insignificant.

Variance. It will be many years before any human will have a 10bb/100 edge on the current HU game of Sauce.

lol correcting a hunl reg

Cool site, thanks for sharing. 15k hands is obv completely insignificant. It's actually pretty scary when you see it black on white:

You can have a 10bb/100 w/r and still lose over a sample of 100k hands.

I think any reasonable human being including WCGRider knows nobody currently has a 10bb edge on Sauce, so yeah..15k hands is nothing. But it's not like they claimed that this challenge is to determine who's the better player.