I would be genuinely surprised if Doug's true winrate against Daniel is really just 10bb/100.

I also think Doug's true edge will actually go up, significantly, over the course of the challenge (especially if it goes past the halfway mark), rather than shrink.

Most people are assuming it should be the other way around, since they look at it like, Daniel was much worse at the start, and improved significantly in the first few sessions. Whereas Doug is already a very strong player, so his play quality should stay much closer to flat, over time.

But, I think this is forgetting a major issue here.

Doug isn't a master of making adjustments in real time, during gameplay. Guys like Trueteller and Jungle are probably much better at that type of thing.

Instead, I think Doug is much better at analyzing his opponents away from the game, in the lab, and figuring out all their hidden leaks, and then exploiting them in the sessions that follow.

And the more and more sample size of hands he has against Daniel, the more thoroughly he'll be able to do this.

So, I actually think Doug's edge will increase over the course of the challenge, even if Daniel improves slightly more over the course of the challenge.

Also seems like Daniel may have improved a lot in the first few challenges but quickly hit his ceiling, like, this might be about as good as Daniel can get. Whereas Doug's edge from analyzing Daniel's game more and more as sample size increases, will just keep getting bigger.

So, I'd think Doug's overall edge will still probably end up being more like 20+bb/100, not 10bb/100, if this goes past the halfway point, and probably at least 15+bb/100 if it cuts off by the halfway point.

Seems like if Daniel's game is improving and changing then adjustments in between matches is less of an edge. Also I do not understand why people assume there is a cap on how good Daniel can get. It is entirely dependent on the quality of his coaches and how willing he is to listen and learn. As far as I know we do not know who his coaches are or how much time and effort he is putting in. The sessions are short and he has a lot of time in between each match.

For general interest, at this moment in time we can bet totals of $17 on DN at 7.2 (6/1) or $3,678 at 1.15 (2/13), on Betfair Exchange.

$612,079 has been matched in the market so far.

You might get your wish. There are at least five YouTube channels commenting now--Upswing, GG Poker, Joe Ingram, Matt Berkey and Andrew Neeme. Berkey and Neeme have small followings. Then there are a bunch of guys analyzing the matches afterwards. More than anyone can handle.

Matt Berkey is currently analysing the match with his anti-GTO software. It's like Pio except you can't win a hand.

Berkey's stream just became must watch.

Do the opposite of what solver says -> win every hand. Sounds like a pretty good solver

Is he using solve4y approved terminology?

If I'm not mistaken, the action will resume tonight.

I have a feeling Dnegs will get trashed again tonight, coolers and everything, since Dougypants Polk is done "playin round", as they say.

What do you think will happen?

Unsubscribe

I'm just here for the memes.

Rofl

never imagined doug would become a bumhunter

Speaking of Bill Perkins, I'm guessing that this High Stakes Feud grudge match might be a topic of discussion today during Bill's podcast appearance on the Poker Player Podcast hosted by Andreas Froehli.

I wonder what the odds would be for Bill Perkins versus Polk.

Might have to put 1 euro on Perks.

Trying to become the world's first trillionaire?

“Bill is the most creative person I know,” Mr. Arnold said. “Of every 20 ideas he proposed, 15 would be ridiculous, four would be clever but not viable, and one would be genius.” (source)

Seems Perkins saved the 15 out of 20 ridiculous ideas for his poker hobby.

Thank you for posting this link. Judging by the monthly return graphs, I guess it's fair to say that he's used to some serious swings lol, but it seems like those who stuck with him actually earned decent money by doing so (avg. >30% annual return before fees). Then again, numbers for some months are missing.

If Bill Perkins sucks, and solve for Y is a horrible training site, which training sites are actually helpful and can enable a player to improve?

Solve for Y is the best training site to keep players mediocre.

Upswing when you’re starting out. Run it once when you’re a vet