No, it's him

Nope, freeze it, its a different face, the nose, jaw, smile.

Nope, its it a 21 yr-old (?) Polk

He directed his chat to this video during a Twitch stream way back when

Very much Team Polk but the tweet about Daniel's game having issues seems a wee bit unnecessary. Sometimes wish he'd just get his head down and take Daniel for millions.

You can't be serious, people want to see massive swings and they're gonna get it. No way the interest dies down coz one side is losing too much!

Is he the one shooting the film?

None of those guys look like Polk to me

Haha wow. i.e. Tuvalu's annual GDP is roughly the annual salary for Patrick Mahomes by the end of his contract.

I always get a kick out of this stuff. If you put one U.S. dollar in a shoebox at the moment Julius Caesar was born, then continued to do that every hour since, you would now have about $18.6 million in the box. And yet $18.6 million is not even in the top 50 of annual NBA salaries.

Of course, if you offered this back in 100 BCE, someone would say, "what the hell is a dollar, where is this U.S. place, why are we wasting this brand-new invention called paper with a painting of some guy named Washington, and what is this 'shoebox' thing you're referring to??"

Different stomach.

I can’t speak for everyone, but I know my stomach was different 9 years ago.

You wasted your time writing that, and I wasted mine reading it.

Instead of shoebox, how much if in a bank earning 5%?

The variance in 100BB HUNL is typically estimated at around 120-250 BB/100, depending on playing style. So we can loosely estimate the variance in the Polk-Negreanu matchup at 200 BB/100.

Under this assumption...

If Doug's true win-rate is 10BB/100, then the probability that he emerges victorious after 25,000 hands is merely 89.7%.

If Polk's edge is even smaller - say, only 5BB/100, then, that figure drops to 73.6%.

Let that sink in - if Polk is "only" 5BB/100 better than Negreanu, then Negreanu is statistically expected to win a 25k-hand grudge match more than 1 out of 4 times.

If Polk is better by something more like 15BB/100 or 20BB/100, then his victory is much more certain (97.1% and 99.4% probabilities, respectively).

Also, if Polk is not strict on resetting when stacks get deep, that 200BB/100 standard deviation estimate could actually end up being an underestimate. A doubling of the standard deviation has the same effect on Polk's winning probability as a halving of his win rate does.

It's foolish to write off Negreanu's chances of an upset. This is not chess, where a non world class player has no chance beating Magnus Carlsen in a best-of-25,000. Variance matters.

Well the line now is -1429/+830 Fair value -869(89.68%)
Right where it should be.

Hi otp:

I don't agree with these assumptions. They sound like the Jonathan Little video. I suggest you read this post:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...postcount=2080

Best wishes,
Mason

Doug Polk has been 10BB/100 better than his opponents playing against a lot of top-tier competition HU for a matter of years. He's now playing against a dude totally inexperienced with the format, especially out of his comfort zone 2-tabling it. Like, dude, the suggestion that Doug could possibly only be a 5BB/100 favorite is laughable. Your entire point is moot

It's not foolish to write off DN's chances of an upset. Doug has clearly run better in both online sessions, I have no problem admitting that. He won't win at this clip long-term. It's still obvious that Daniel is way, way out of his depth, and there's a limit to how much you can improve within a few months. This is all before genuine tilt sets in and sessions could get really ugly

I think a lot of people here really do feel that Doug genuinely has at least a 20bb/100 edge against Daniel.

And as you noted, that would yield over a 99% chance of victory.

Also, for those who are scoffing at the idea of a 20+bb/100 winrate, keep in mind that hu winrates are not the same thing as 6-max or 9-max winrates. While a 3 or 4 bb/100 winrate is very good in those formats, and 5 or 6bb/100 is considered godlike in those formats, 20bb/100 winrates, or higher, in hu are pretty normal when a strong player plays against a weaker player who he has a major edge against. This has been well known in the hu community from over 15 years now of people keeping stats of their poker databases with pokertracker and HEM and so on.

I would be genuinely surprised if Doug's true edge against Daniel is less than 20bb/100, in hunl. Personally I'd think it's more like 30bb/100. I also think Doug will actually continue to adjust more and more optimally to Daniel than the other way around. Doug played hundreds of thousands of hands against extremely tough hu opponents, and was a master at adjusting to even the most minute or nuanced and heavily disguised playing tendencies of world class opponents. Adjusting, and then fine tuning against someone like Daniel should be a cakewalk by comparison.

So, if anything, his edge might actually get bigger over time. It's already probably around 25-30bb/100 if not higher, and will probably go to 30+bb/100 as the match goes on and on, assuming Daniel keeps playing.

Obv the 200k per session stuff includes a lot of positive variance for Doug. I'm not saying Doug's edge is that huge. But, his edge is probably quite a bit bigger than people realize - including people who rooting for him or who have stated they think he will win.

Doug's edge is most likely utterly gigantic.

Doesn't mean its him, he could just be trolling. Like I said, freeze frame it, that's not doug, he's not 40 years old now, he would not change that much.

lmao at the pool vid, def doug (that's cheet and dougiedan w him)

polk is borderline genius for goading dnegs into this one-sided murder

Hi Mason,

I had not seen the Jonathan Little video before writing my post.

I read your post, but I'm not sure I understand your reply. You refer to my assumption(s), but I only made one assumption (the standard deviation), making the pluralization puzzling. I also characterized this assumption as a "loose estimate" and described other factors (play style, stack depth) that affect the quality of that assumption.

I made no win rate assumption, so that part of your reply does not seem to apply.

I agree with your post that Polk is capable of making expectation-variance tradeoffs - this is of course a standard property of nearly all strategy games. It should of course be recognized that Negreanu also has the ability to make expectation-variance tradeoffs, and it's unclear how these two competing forces might interact, and in which net direction the forces will move the grudge match win probability.

cheers gazza

Hi KatanaSoul:

Just to put a couple of more numbers on this. They're playing about 400 hands per session. So, if Doug's winrate was 20BB per 100 hands, that's anexpectation of $32,000 per session. If his winrate is 30BB per 100 hands that's $48,000 persession.

With approximately 24,000 hands to go, that's about 60 sessions. 20BB per 100 hands over 60 sessions comes to $1,920,000. 30 BB per 100 hands comes to $2,880,000. And given the money he has already won, assuming your estimates are good, Doug can expect to win between $2 million and $3 million.

By the way, just to throw this out there. At the end of the Upswing Poker broadcast, their announcers estimated a much lower overall win for Doug, but it was still a lot, just under $1 million.

Best wishes,
Mason

Longer sessions coming.

Mikey hates his money.

Hi otp:

But you used win rates of 5BB per 100 hands and 10BB per 100 hands in your examples. And while you didn't state that these were your estimates, it made me think that you thought that Doug was probably between 5 and 10BB per 100 hands, and I suspect that other readers thought the same.

As for the tradeoffs of expectation-variance, I think it's highly likely that Doug, being the expert heads-up no-limit player, will be much better at this than Negreanu, the non-expert heads-up no-limit player.

In fact, as the poorer player, assuming this is correct, Negreanu should be trying to increase the standard deviation and hope he gets lucky. Of course, this would probably significantly lower his expectation, and if he doesn't run lucky, he could then go through even more money.

Finally, if Doug gets way ahead, he should just continue to play to maximize his expectation since variance will become unimportant.

Best wishes,
Mason

Roughly 7 hours and 39 minutes of gameplay time and approximately $268,000 in winnings...

...equals about a $35,000 hourly winrate for Doug so far.

Round 1: 213 minutes
Round 2: 124 minutes
Round 3: 122 minutes

That's including player breaks when no action was taking place.