How did Doug vs Ali end up going?

Zero chance. If you mean all the tools are there to give make a competitive advantage a possibility ... maybe. Has he got better recently prepping for this challenge? Yeah maybe. But before studying he would have been a huge dog vs winning regs and likely still is to date.

pokersharesh won't take that much action, unless Doug got all his friends to make bets on their accounts. Nobody will take that big of a bet from Doug

And the line would be moved by the time all bets get through. So can't rly hedge like this.

Doug won seven buy-ins (they had also crossbooked for 3x apparently)

and yeah, anyone saying that Doug is being cocky by accurately describing himself as a 'very good but not world-class HU NLHE player' is insane

Yea, I agree with you on this one.

But, I think the better question is just how far back in time you'd have to go before DN would have an edge against top tier online HU specialists.

I'd think even by around 2007, the top HU players were probably already considerably better than DN currently is.

I think you were a top HU specialist in that time frame, so I am curious if you'd agree.

What about 2006?

2005?

My guess is somewhere around early or mid 2006 is the crossover point. ?

The other thing that makes the question tricky is how rapidly the play quality seemed to improve in such a short span of time during the early boom years, where a difference of 6 months could be enormous. Like hu play quality probably went up, what, 200% in the span of a year from 2005 to 2006? Whereas only like 10% or something from 2017 to 2018?

(I'm just tossing random numbers out since I wasn't a hu reg in that era, although I did watch them play sometimes. But, you were playing back then, so I'm curious what you think about the state of the games by year back then relative to nowadays)

Iirc there was a few years bracketing 2010 where the old big names seemed to be showing a surprising lack of results. Then the high rollers started so we saw more big finishes from those guys. Then there is Eric Siedel, the live poker goat

Daniel very likely can afford to lose a million or two at this and be able to bounce back..I sorta doubt Doug can afford to...if Daniel plays aggro to up the variance things would be interesting (which he should imo)..doug likely protecting himself from big downside by selling some action, however etc..

So where can you bet on this matchup if you live in US ? I'm too lazy to read all the previous posts

Donk Polk will donk off his bankroll

This

Absolute pish.

That would be really entertaining. Not least because, despite Doug's latest twitter meltdown, I still have faith he hasn't completely lost a sense of humor when it comes to his public persona and will it be great fun to watch him take apart DNegs.

But if DNegs beats him? Even by a little? OMG I'd throw all my gear out the window. And the next day I'd watch the youtube vids and ROFL.

All of that is irrelevant if you just don't like his personality.

How much has Negreanu improved his odds if he received intense coaching from the best available coaches between the time the challenge was accepted and the time it takes place?

Even if he were the type of guy who’d do this (I don’t think he is) it wouldn’t be possible. Pokershares caps the action well below $200k. I think the max bet is a fraction of that.

I would guess a lot, as long as he’s smart and paying attention. He will probably be 500% better then before with no training. But probably still far away from Polk.

Plus he has action on himself laying 4:1 with Hellmuth and others and would have to overcome that additional loss if he threw the match. And losing will probably hurt his Upswing subs whereas winning will help. Then there's his reputation and ego which is probably worth a lot to him. I can't see it.

Moreover, there's the issue of doing that and it not being detected by all you experts on 2+2 and other places. Can he play bad enough to lose if the cards are breaking his way and that not be detected? I wouldn't think so.

I doubt DNegs has the mental tools necessary to let go of his disdain for gto style play and fully embrace it so he can execute it --- he really seems to need this in his toolbox and he won't make room!

It's pretty funny that there is even a discussion about Polk losing. Love him or hate him, he is gonna destroy Negs (who will certainly be opting to quit at the 12.5k mark)

Canada.

Can't be sure exactly, mainly because I don't know how much he has studied, but if we assume he hasn't studied any hu poker and he brings his current poker skill sets and just gets thrown into a match(which I'm just making a guess on based on seeing a bunch of hands hes played/poker hes talked) I'd say your number is def way closer and if the original poster had said that, I prob wouldn't have said anything. Best HU regs back then were like tillerman and hallingol or something? Id prob still bet on 'past' them in an extended match vs dnegs hu prior to him studying with gto tools.

I was still in highschool on 06 . My peak for hunl was like 2008 to 2010 I think, and didn't last long as I had an affinity for playing vs all the best regs/transitioned to live and plo way earlier than others, most of the people that beat me went on to become the mainstays of poker now (sauce/jungle/ike etc). We were all pretty bad though, but as you said things were progressing quite fast. But what the last poster said was Dnegs would have a huge edge vs 25/50+ conquering jungleman.... uh no. Possible with a good amount of studying, but seems so unlikely from what I see Dnegs current base of knowledge set at that he'd be anything other than a 15bb+ loser. HU regs got surprisingly close to gto in both NL and PLO before solvers even came out in several categories, even some various discreet non intuitive concepts. Most of the "high stakes regs" of any era played millions of hu hands, obv dnegs can cut into that experience time with the vastly superior learning tools available now, but I'd def give him a month of studying and send him back to face prime hu jungleman and be quite happy with my side. (EDIT- This seems close on reread, if he studied efficiently till his eyes bled and make it an absolute life goal it would get really close/possible especially if someone held his hand through the process, but thats equiv to jamming 5m+ hands of quality experience. I kind of doubt his ability to absorb it all but its def possible.)

Any truly proven winning 'past' 25/50+ reg after like 2009 would ravage a dnegs that hasn't put in hundreds of hours of solver work.

Easy way to think of it is phil ivey/durrr/antonious were def rated to be losers vs the creame of the crop back then. I'd take 2012 phil ivey/durr/antonious anyday unless Dnegs studied for a very long time, imagine Dnegs being better than them at HU in any lifetime. The longer he has to study the more this becomes untrue obv, but from everything I've seen Dnegs was so far behind in every single way.

I'm a "nobody" now in HU PLO and I'd def spot dnegs a couple weeks of monker time for some of that juicy HU ego match.

I guess there is only 2 choices.

This is silly. There has been numerous times where Daniel had tried to implement GTO or even many years ago before solvers, superior top "internet" formed strategies into his game. He has even studied solvers in the past four years while on the highroller circuit for MTTs.

I don't think he has a disdain for advanced strategy or poker theory at all. Lack of motivation to actually put in the work and improve at times as he has already achieved monetary success and been playing this game forever could be a concern but I think he still has alot of love for the game overall. Also think he respects the way that strategy has evolved over time since he started playing poker.