first of all gerrard and torres would prob make 9/10 penalties on reina so daniel could be terrible compared to them an still make 1/5.

second of all you overestimate the difference in power of a professional and amateur football player. claiming he could only kick the ball 25% as hard is as rediculous as claiming an amateur pitcher could only throw a baseball at 20-25 mph. you also don't have to kick the ball very hard at all to make it impossible for the goalie to stand and wait until you kick the ball as long as you have some kind of decent placement. the fact that reina plays every day is prob not as significant as you think since if a ball is placed correctly no goalie can reach it anyways, it doesn't matter how fast you react.

you may be right about womens college teams getting alot of money and that is why they are better. but i also think it has to do with the fact that womens football isn't really that developed in most european and south american countries. i am pretty sure that the us has close to if not the most female youth players per capita.

I an late to this thread but those arguing its all about placement have to realise that DN will not be able to place it.

He will if he hits it ultra gentle, but then it will not have the speed to beat the keeper, once he tries to add enough power to beat the keeper his shots will get more and more random in there placement and many will miss the target.

If he decides to side foot it, he will just be sending a telegram.

Its about control of the ball, DN will have to strike through the laces of the boot to generate enough power and speed to beat the keeper, he wont have the technique to do this and have much controll over the placement of the ball.

Of course this could work in his favour.

Thanks for essentially re-posting my earlier post

I present to you the case for Pepe Reina

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJv7D8PgqQc

Negreanu will 100% win this so long as he doesn't slip and fall on all 5 attempts. which is entirely possible.

OK so watch the save at 1:18 frame by frame. He clearly guesses (or "makes a ninja read"), moves to that side, AND steps forward (a rules violation) before the ball is struck.

The kicker sends the ball maybe 2/3 of the way towards the post. MAYBE.

AND he barely gets it.

Then at 1:35, he guesses/reads again, AND he's actually landed a full step forward by the time the ball is kicked. This time the ball is accurately placed, but his head start is ridiculous, he's like six feet forward from the line by the time the ball gets to him.

I mean... I'm sure he's an amazing keeper... but I still think that, without cheating, this is just really hard to do at a 90% rate vs anyone who has some level of ability, which DN may or may not have.

And now I'll shut up. But I had to chime in once somebody posted a compilation of his ninja saves.

Pineapple - you're absolutely right about him being miles off his line. I've noticed it before, I think it is only the red half of Liverpool and the refereeing community that are unaware.

6 pages of arguing about this and noone has ever seen him kick a ball..seems pointless

^^ keepers coming off the line before the ball is touched always tilts me in pro "football". I don't think I've ever seen a pro goalie not break the rules

Also to add some football nittery the entire ball has to cross the line to be out of bounds!! the very edge of the ball, drawing a line straight down has to be past the very outer edge of the line!

Or so I was told learning to ref

/nit

lol negreanus effort will barely reach the goal. i fancy reinas side of the bet

Hi, clueless.

Yeah it's a violation of the rules to take a step over the line but it's how football works, everyone does it. It's like when someone gets injured or is hurting on the pitch, you kick the ball out even though players are encouraged to keep playing until the ref has blown the whistle.

"I'm sure he's an amazing keeper"? What? Have you ever watched football?
He is one of the best in the world and considered by many to be the best keeper @ penalties.

I think if the bet was for $500k this would hold true but the pressure of taking a penalty infront of maybe 50k spectators, millions on TV and knowing that if you miss you will let down every straight male in your country is immense. $12k probably isn't enough to put DN under any serious pressure and I expect the conversion rate of a world class finisher in training is closer to 90%+.

how come the bets only 12k

So like I am a total amateur, never played competitively and only house leagues in the backwater known as Canada. Yet, I can kick a stationary football well over half the length of the field and with good accuracy and height. Judging by the distance that most professionals are getting on their kicks, I would suspect that I can get a velocity on the ball comparable to some pros (I have seen MLS keepers who I can kick the ball further than for example) and within 80% of the best. At my level, there are usually many other players on my team who can kick the ball at least 80% as powerfully as me (so like 2/3rds as powerful as a pro).

Not only that, but this 1 shot gets a "read" idea is MORONIC. I can easily, and with reasonable control take 3 different kicks (straight run with laces, angle run with laces, angle run with side of the foot). I can direct my body to aim to one corner and close/open my foot to put it in the other corner. Doing these things isn't that hard, and I am POSITIVE that I would score at least 1/5 vs any keeper.

Finally, the fact that it is 5 attempts makes a HUGE difference. You can now attempt to blast it to the top corner, and if Reina starts camping that shot, be able to bail with a sidefooter to the opposite side of the net.

I think DN's best chance is to hit the first as hard as he can to Reina's left or right, don't worry too much about hiding which side it's going to go, you won't fool Reina, just concentrate on it hitting the target. If he can hit it hard enough he may be able to put some doubt into Reina's mind as to whether he needs to commit or not on the future shots. If he can do this he has a shot, if he can't, and I think this is more likely, he almost certainly loses. Hope he wins tho just to piss off a scouser or two. IMO off course.

And lol at Americans (most of them anyway) talking football ITT.

All this "lol at americans talking football/soccer" stuff is getting tiresome. Please stop. (No, I'm not American.)

No mate, I am saying the opposite. I was talking about UK fixed odds betting prices (hence the confusion possibly). 1/3 means you are staking 30 to win 10.

Anyhow my point was totally irrelevant considering somoeone had already posted the stats for shootouts. apologies for wasting 5 mins of your life.

One other thing, I would be very surprised if this happens. Reina is an extremely valuable product and I'm sure Liverpool wouldn't give him permission to do this without some serious consideration. I used to play with a group of friends after work way back and a guy who was signed to a leading non league side would come along occasionally, after running rings around us all for 10 minutes he would stop and say he shouldn't really be playing at all as it was expressly forbidden in his contract to play at all without their consent.

Pro athletes arent gamblers.

Yeah, it's really annoying and I am not American either.

You sound pretty good, i guess you get 80 percent of this after you get suspended for doing too much PCP:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0u2G...eature=related

dn will fail, hopefully

Right, because that is what I implied with my post. I am too slow, can't really deke and my first touch doesn't put the ball where it needs to be, my left foot sucks, and I have no aim with my head. But I can certainly kick a soccer ball quite a ways and with good power. I merely used ball flight distance as a proxy for power, which it is (the harder you kick it, the further it goes).

Im not really sure how you managed to turn me saying its not that easy to strike a penalty into an attack on you or what difference how far you can or cant kick the ball has on the price of fish, but nevermind.


Finally, the fact that it is 5 attempts makes a HUGE difference. You can now attempt to blast it to the top corner, and if Reina starts camping that shot, be able to bail with a sidefooter to the opposite side of the net.[/QUOTE]


Yeh because sending a world class keeper the wrong way is that easy. I have no idea how the most naturally gifted people on the face of the earth still find it a challenge after their years of play, competition and world class coaching.

Such a challenge that they score 90+% of the time? Give me a break. If you can kick it hard enough to force the keeper to guess (which I believe I can), and you notice that behaviour (which with 5 shots you would), and you then have the ability to basically do the same kick until you start your downswing (so after the keeper has started to move) which you then put into the other corner, you can beat Reina 1/5 at least.

I also never mentioned fish.

too many football fish for my liking. just shows why the poker tables are still full of numptys though despite all the information out there to become a shark.