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Big News: PokerStars Purchases FTP(?) Cliffs in OP Last update 4/24 1:02PM PT Big News: PokerStars Purchases FTP(?) Cliffs in OP Last update 4/24 1:02PM PT

04-26-2012 , 12:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by leviathan74
Ok, this is becoming ****ing tilting. Some people say "it's good news that PS is buying FTP, but we re concerned that there might be a monopoly being created here" and in turn we are subjected to a chorus of libertarians bombarding us with the same point again and again and again.

The idea that PS' resulting dominant position is ok because people chose to play there would is fine and dandy save one small detail. It applies today where all of PS' market share was obtained that way. If PS gets FTP in a semihostile merger then it would obtain at least a dominant position in the market not by mere consumer choice, but by gobbling up its main competitor. That's a crucial difference.

Moreover if we head to Wikipedia, here are some choice finds we are going to come across. Here's Robert Bork, a well known pink commie in the process of tirading against aggressive antitrust legislation:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-trust#Chicago_School

Here is wikipedia on what constitutes market dominance:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominance_%28economics%29
Here some brief on sources of monopoly power. Among them is network externalities which clearly apply to poker sites:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monopol...monopoly_power

Since network effects play a role and one's choice of a poker site depends on other people's choice to play on a website and those choices are semi-co-ordinated, it isn't as simple as saying "if you don't like a site, go play in another one".

Let's also not forget that one of the main reasons PS, FTP and UB became the three leading websites was their strategic choice to remain in the US market when it was legally ambiguous to do so. This in turn allowed them to build a critical mass of players by giving them a competitive advantage vis a vis their ROW competition.

Moreover, whatever is said here about competition still existing applies to popular poker variants in cash form, IF you are a recreational player. If one wants to play, let's say PLO MTTs or NL MTT SNGs, or 20 table cash games -and there's is an argument to be made that these are poker sub-markets- then the choice is still very limited.

My personal tentative opinion is the matter is this:

- There are going to be multiple effects going multiple ways and it's too early to tell about their exact nature. Therefore, anyone speaking with absolute certainty should go on to chew a shoe. It will save him talking out of his ass.

- My preference is that if worldwide player pools are going to be limited and scarce, then a well run company with a dominant position isn't the worst thing in the world. If there those player pools are abundant, we absolutely need competition.

- PS obtaining a dominant market position will lead to sub-optimal prices, but not to the point of giving rise to competition. This may not mean rake increases necessarily, it all probability means that effective rake doesn't drop as much as it would under perfect competition.

- Drastic changes in market share are far more likely to follow from structural changes in the world market, namely the introduction of regulation in the US.

- The biggest cause of rake increase is also going to be regulation. There's probably going to be some unfair criticism that the rake increase is due to monopoly power, but all the same, sites would also have the ready made excuse to maintain rake levels higher and blame it on regulation.

- Increased rake due to regulation is probably going to lead to competitive pressures for the market to consolidate. This probably strengthen PS' position, but also hopefully allow for some other competitor to emerge.

And just to repeat one more time. One can be happy about the prospect of a deal and be concerned at the same time. One can state his concerns and not be certain about how they re going to play out.
Without getting deeply into it, there is so much more to antitrust law than you just put forward. It isn't cut and dry. Just because you merge with a competitor, DOES NOT mean you are a monopoly. Just because you have more than 50% share of market DOES NOT mean you are a monopoly. There are other requirements and other justifications for having more than 50% and merging. I think we can leave these concerns up to Pokerstars counsel though. I'm sure they have done their due diligence on the matter.
04-26-2012 , 12:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mondogarage

However, I also think that, because Tapie has pretty much been an overly litigious bastard for the last 20 years, an equally likely scenario is tries to find a way to sue DOJ/PS/FTP or some combination, attempting to do so in French or European courts, to attempt to sabotage anyone but him getting FTP. And that this will ultimately fail, but cost significant time in the interim.

THIS is the first concern I had reading the Tapie press release, something about him pursuing other avenues if all the employees don't keep their jobs set off my litigation alarm.

Does anyone know if there is some basis for litigation in Ireland (or Europe) were PokerStars to buy FTP but close down PocketKings and put people out of work?
04-26-2012 , 01:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mondogarage
I suspect you're half right. Isai will likely have to step down as part of any settlement. But my own thinking (reasons discussed elsewhere), is that PS takes the best parts of FTP to use as its own (software, Rush, etc.), and not actually reintroduce the FTP brand.

I personally thing that keeping them separate while including the best parts of FTP into PS softwarewould be more beneficial to PS. This gives them the ability to sell FTP for a profit down the line if they so choose after taking the best parts of FTP.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mondogarage
I think this is entirely possible.

However, I also think that, because Tapie has pretty much been an overly litigious bastard for the last 20 years, an equally likely scenario is tries to find a way to sue DOJ/PS/FTP or some combination, attempting to do so in French or European courts, to attempt to sabotage anyone but him getting FTP. And that this will ultimately fail, but cost significant time in the interim.

He could also try both strategies, or use the latter strategy as a wedge to try to kowtow DOJ into selling UB/AP assets on the cheap. Because, you know, his attempts to hornswoggle DOJ on the FTP deal worked so well.
I wouldn't anything shady past Tapie. Scumbag.
04-26-2012 , 01:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bizzle03
I think we can leave these concerns up to Pokerstars counsel though. I'm sure they have done their due diligence on the matter.
This. They surely would have considered all of this and seem to have deemed it not applicable to this situation.
04-26-2012 , 01:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tamiller866
THIS is the first concern I had reading the Tapie press release, something about him pursuing other avenues if all the employees don't keep their jobs set off my litigation alarm.

Does anyone know if there is some basis for litigation in Ireland (or Europe) were PokerStars to buy FTP but close down PocketKings and put people out of work?
He hired them pre-emptively. Unless they had a written agreement with the DOJ that was ripped up or something, I don't see how this wouldn't be thrown out of court.
04-26-2012 , 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tamiller866
THIS is the first concern I had reading the Tapie press release, something about him pursuing other avenues if all the employees don't keep their jobs set off my litigation alarm.

Does anyone know if there is some basis for litigation in Ireland (or Europe) were PokerStars to buy FTP but close down PocketKings and put people out of work?
Basis? Well likely who has the most bucks or pounds or euros to influence events. Who do you like, Pokerstars, or the brilliant Mons. Tapie et al??
04-26-2012 , 01:05 PM
I want to listen to DF podcast, but it seems to be takin a long time to load. Do I have to download it to listen, I cant just click the link and have it load like a stream?
04-26-2012 , 01:07 PM
Quote:
Without getting deeply into it, there is so much more to antitrust law than you just put forward. It isn't cut and dry. Just because you merge with a competitor, DOES NOT mean you are a monopoly. Just because you have more than 50% share of market DOES NOT mean you are a monopoly. There are other requirements and other justifications for having more than 50% and merging. I think we can leave these concerns up to Pokerstars counsel though. I'm sure they have done their due diligence on the matter.
Exactly. There's so much in law and in the science of economics than ANYONE has put forward, so no one is entitled to put absolute statements and act as if he knows the full implications of the deal.

Besides that, I don't know if a merged PS is going to be legally a monopoly and it doesn't interest me. In any case US antitrust law doesn't apply.

Moreover, I don't believe there's a clear threshold that delineates a monopolistic market from a competitive market. I think it's a matter of degrees.

Looking at OPR, I see that in 2010, the last year when FTP was around, there were 2 million players in PS, another 1 million on FTP and 300,000 on the rest of the networks. So PS had something like a 60% of the market. If FTP comes back with the same number, the merged entity would have 3 million of the tournament market as oposed to 300-400,000 going to the rest of the networks. That's like a 90% market share.

I don't care if you call that a monopoly or not, that would be a battle of semantics. Given the existence of network effects, I would expect that there would be sub-optimal prices compared to the pre-black Friday status quo and I don't think it's an unreasonable hypothesis to make.

Now, does it mean, I hate the deal? No. Is it the worst thing in the world? No. But it's also a significant development that won't go away by trying to apply some people's fundamentalist ideology.
04-26-2012 , 01:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kearney
wtf, how is that even legal?!

It like Apple and Microsoft would merge, no way this can happen if antitrust-laws are still alive...
Please elaborate. As of this moment, FTP has exactly zero market share anywhere.
04-26-2012 , 01:08 PM
one last point to the monopoly concerns... i think PS would fulfill the conditions to be a monopoly BUT i think regulatory bodies lump poker in with all online gaming/gambling and if you do that, PS does not look that big anymore...

LUCKY FOR US!!!
04-26-2012 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by break_evan
realy ?

via twitter :


Tony Dunst ‏ @Bond_18

A source from @Pokerstars recently told me they also intend to also buy UB and repay their players because "We're that ****ing awesome."
LOL what? Is stars even real.
04-26-2012 , 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Brice
I think PokerStars could sidestep this a bit by saying we don't work with affiliates.
This is another reason in support of the proposition that PS simply won't bring back the FTP brand as an operating site. And possibly why a lot of former FTP affiliates are crapping their pants at the idea of PS purchasing the assets of FTP.
04-26-2012 , 01:11 PM
Mods, can someone make a containment thread from the whole monopoly argument. This thread is unreadable due to the amount of facepalming arguments people are having on what is/isn't a monopoly.

Thanks in advance
04-26-2012 , 01:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TMoney0209
LOL what? Is stars even real.
that's obviously a joke.
04-26-2012 , 01:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gimmepilotwings
That battle will never happen to begin with. This will not be considered a monopoly. Bad for the poker community as a whole, debatable. Monopoly, definitely no.
This +1000000000000

What's really aggravating is people who don't even have a fundamental grasp of antitrust law, trying to claim ZOMG monopoly.

First off, a company with zero market share, by definition, cannot be monopolistic. FTP has zero market share anywhere in the known universe right now. PS has exactly zero market share in the United States.

Second, the mere existence of a monopoly is not, repeat, is NOT an violation of anti-trust law.

Any other discussion about a merged PS/FTP entity as a monopolistic entity must begin with those points, or said discussion is inherently fatally flawed.
04-26-2012 , 01:20 PM
Buy UB! I'd 100% go back to fulltime online grinding on Pokerstars/FT2 if they were to help us UB/AP players get our rolls back!

Pokerstars has always done the right thing. Let Pokerstars run the show
04-26-2012 , 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinky
that's obviously a stupid unfunny joke.
fyp. Not cool to be making jokes at this time about this situation.
04-26-2012 , 01:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SamuraiJon
Mods, can someone make a containment thread from the whole monopoly argument. This thread is unreadable due to the amount of facepalming arguments people are having on what is/isn't a monopoly.

Thanks in advance
yes this, it is ridic to bog down a legit very important thread because we have to read trolls talk about complex things they have absolutely no clue about and that arent true

Last edited by 2Pretty2Lose; 04-26-2012 at 01:28 PM.
04-26-2012 , 01:30 PM
So since I can't read through, are we all making the assumption that because Stars has actually been talking to the DoJ for a year, GBT didn't actually back out, they just lost in the race with Stars to come to an agreement and bowed out because Stars would do something they wouldn't in paying back the players?

Just want a one paragraph summarization of events here for myself.

EDIT: Has there been any more conversation of Tilt/Stars actually coming back to the US as a result of this?
04-26-2012 , 01:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by integratyper777
So since I can't read through, are we all making the assumption that because Stars has actually been talking to the DoJ for a year, GBT didn't actually back out, they just lost in the race with Stars to come to an agreement and bowed out because Stars would do something they wouldn't in paying back the players?

Just want a one paragraph summarization of events here for myself.

EDIT: Has there been any more conversation of Tilt/Stars actually coming back to the US as a result of this?
GBT backed out, once DOJ told those broke dicks to bring some real money to the table and quit trying to purchase FTP with the actual players' existing deposits.
04-26-2012 , 01:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by integratyper777
So since I can't read through, are we all making the assumption that because Stars has actually been talking to the DoJ for a year, GBT didn't actually back out, they just lost in the race with Stars to come to an agreement and bowed out because Stars would do something they wouldn't in paying back the players?

Just want a one paragraph summarization of events here for myself.

EDIT: Has there been any more conversation of Tilt/Stars actually coming back to the US as a result of this?
lol no, no way Tapie bowed out. The guy was gonna get FTP for pennies on dollar, all he cares about is his own pockets, hes not bowing out for the sake of players.
04-26-2012 , 01:38 PM
Surely if we just wait a few more years the interest from existing FTP will pay sufficient to pay everyone back anyway!

Last edited by dibbla; 04-26-2012 at 01:38 PM. Reason: Wasn't serious, but actually could be
04-26-2012 , 01:38 PM
Cool yeah, I didn't think GBT would ever step out of that deal especially knowing the money it DID pull in when operating. Stars made a great play obv...

Hopefully we get some REAL news that is promising soon
04-26-2012 , 01:51 PM
Couldn't stars legally build another site and make it the second largest site within a year if it wanted? Really don't see how there's any anti trust issue here when there are so many competing poker sites.
04-26-2012 , 02:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mondogarage
GBT backed out, once DOJ told those broke dicks to bring some real money to the table and quit trying to purchase FTP with the actual players' existing deposits.
Diamond Flush made it clear that the DOJ told GBT to gtfo, not the other way around, silly billy

      
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