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07-14-2022 , 04:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw



Experts: We can do Version B relatively easy
Version A still works very effectively
We stick with version A

This somehow prove Oafk is correct and all the experts are wrong. Maybe Gove was right after all. We dont need no experts.
No because I am agreeing totally with the Experts (as cited) and you are not understanding them or representing their current opinion which is that editing vaccines to new variants is not optimal because even though its much quicker than previous vaccines, its still to slow to keep up with the pace of new variants.

Quote:
Well let's not argue about undisputed known facts
Yes but somehow you are.

Omicron is not a copy of Delta, this is unusual.

If you tailor a vaccine to the variant present in Winter, by Autumn there will be a new variant that moots the tailoring, especially if the virus shows the capacity to make massive mutational leaps as it did Delta to Omicron.

For Tailoring to be a viable strategy you would have to be able to edit and roll them out much quicker than currently possible.

These are the facts and the state of current contemporary expert opinion.
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07-14-2022 , 04:06 AM
Ok as you can't even follow the basic point on evolution I'll let you go.

I'll stick with the comfort that the experts are very confident that they can tweak vaccines relatively easily and that imo the political will will be there if a particularly deadly strain emerges
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07-14-2022 , 04:12 AM
You are the one that cant follow the basic point that if a billion Xs exist and 10 Ys exist Z is much more likely to be a mutated copy of X then Y.

You seem to be failing on the basics of how viruses mutate.
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07-14-2022 , 04:17 AM
Ok. I'll stick with basic evolutionary theory and the experts

You carry on

To be charitable,I think what you ate trying to say is that is very hard to predict future variants and they emerge too fast for comfort
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07-14-2022 , 04:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
Ok. I'll stick with chez theory
FYP.
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07-14-2022 , 04:27 AM
No and I'll stick with the experts txs
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07-14-2022 , 04:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
No and I'll stick with my misunderstanding of the experts txs
FYP.
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07-14-2022 , 04:38 AM
No the experts couldn't be clearer that tweaking the vaccines is relatively easy

Being childish on the internet. You can have that one.
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07-14-2022 , 04:49 AM
I'm going to repeat my original post in case all the deranged nonsense inbetween doesn't get deleted. I think it's relevant to the actual topic:

Quote:
There's generally some confusion though. Higher infectability is very fast evolution that is directly selected for. There is no direct selection pressue on lethality. Human reaction aside (which can be very significant) lethality has zero impact on the fitness of a new strain until possibly long into the future i.e it aint good for the virus if it's killed all the hosts - this should offer no comfort.

As I posted about before, the far bigger impact on lethality may be the way hosts have coevolved with infections. It's unclear but it may that we have evolved to allow escape of infections as part of the defense against lethality.

Most encouraging of all is the mega success of the vaccines. Tweaking them to new variants is relatively easy. Plus treatments are gradually getting on top of viruses - still a long way to go but science will win this one too..
Which doesn't mean there aren't some serious covid rocks ahead but it does mean a nasty lethal strains require a fair degree of bad luck and that even if we hit that rock, the lockdown vaccine cycle will be much faster. of for the not's 'can' be much faster - politcians can **** anythign up but personally I can't imagine even them ignoring a skyrocketing death rate when there's a solution available they can easily through money at.
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07-14-2022 , 04:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw

Being childish on the internet. You can have that one.
Hahah, you started the being childish mate, that is you in a nutshell.

You can keep making claims to the experts but its incorrect and shallow and the phrase relatively easy tells us nothing and is just a stawman.

Again it is "relatively" easy, but still not easy enough to keep up with the mutation rate of covid.

You can keep spamming relatively easy, but it answers nothing and achieves nothing because relativity to other vacinees is not the important point.

The important point is speed of tweak v speed of mutation and all of your links (which are mostly statements by vaccine manufacturer representatives) show that speed to be too slow.

Pharmaceutical Companies: We can tweak the vaccine. It will take 3 months (fast for vaccines)

Health Care Professionals: Dont bother, there is no point, can we have a broad viral approach instead please.
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07-14-2022 , 04:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
HAgain it is "relatively" easy
hey great. well done. The rest was just straw nonsense of no relevence to the point but well done on understanding that tweaking the vaccine is relatively easy.

That matters hugely if a new deadly strain shoudl emerge. Maybe even you can grasp that. That's unkind of me. I know you can grasp that.
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07-14-2022 , 05:05 AM
I knew you would keep spamming relatively easy without being able to comprehend the implications of "relative" in this instance.

Sure a new deadly strain can emerge, then we have to hope it behaves in a way that does not moot all the "relative" speed of tweaking the vaccine unlike all the previous strains.

If we identified the new strain today, the quickest by we could have a new vaccine would be around Nov 1st, this is quick for vaccines but too slow for the observed rate of mutation in Covid.

If however we create a vaccine that is effective against a broad zone of mutations then its not a problem.

That is why the latter is currently seen as the optimal vaccine strategy by Experts as I clearly cited.
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07-14-2022 , 05:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
Again it is "relatively" easy
well done. The rest was just straw nonsense of no relevence to the point but well done on understanding that tweaking the vaccine is relatively easy.

That matters hugely if a new deadly strain should emerge. Maybe even you can grasp that. That's unkind of me. I know you can grasp that.



Quote:
If however we create a vaccine that is effective against a broad zone of mutations then its not a problem.
That would be nice but a very different point of course to the one I'm making. Immortality would be nice as well.
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07-14-2022 , 05:22 AM
If you look at each wave caused by a new variant, the case peak happens much faster than the speed at which a new vaccine can be delivered.
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07-14-2022 , 05:25 AM
Of course the fact that the virus will have mutated into a new variant by the time a new vaccine is ready is not in anyway a strawman and to suggest it is is pure utter garbage.
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07-14-2022 , 05:27 AM
I'll take it that you have actually grasped the point that the ability to relatively easily tweak the vaccine is very important when it comes to dealing with a new deadly strain shoul one emerge

Maybe not. Who knows.
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07-14-2022 , 05:29 AM
Lets see if Chez has the intellectual honesty to answer the actual important point.

The relative speed of the vaccine.

Its fast relative to the speed other vaccines' can be tweaked etc.

Its slow relative to the speed new variants cause case peaks and mutate into other variants.

Of course he wont.
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07-14-2022 , 05:33 AM
Of course I will.

Thre's no dispute about that at all.

so

Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
Again it is "relatively" easy
well done. The rest was just straw nonsense of no relevence to the point but well done on understanding that tweaking the vaccine is relatively easy.

That matters hugely if a new deadly strain should emerge. Maybe even you can grasp that. That's unkind of me. I know you can grasp that.

or maybe not


.
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07-14-2022 , 05:49 AM
So he didnt, he keeps calling the relevant points he has no answer for a strawman.

The vaccine can be tweaked quickly relative to other vacinees.

Relative to elements that make a tweaked vaccine effective as a intervention against a deadly variant, it takes an ice age.

So tweaked vaccines will not be that effective against a deadly variant.

Everything else is strawnonsence.

I know Chez is capable of grasping this he is just not honest enough to admit it.

You would hope Chez would be the poster boy of the type of debate he claims he would like to see in this forum instead of being a perpetual contradiction of that ideal.
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07-14-2022 , 05:53 AM
I still think you did grasp the point

Anyway it's been to death. Hopefully we will not hit a new deadly strain so it won't matter anyway. Original flavour vaccines are holding up well so far
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07-14-2022 , 05:56 AM
I never disputed the point, I disputed the points relevance in terms of intervention.

You never countered this observation in anything approaching an honest way.

Yes your strawmen, spamming and evasion has been to death.
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07-14-2022 , 05:58 AM
Rubbish.

But I'm glad you agree with my point. I thought you did
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07-14-2022 , 05:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw

That would be nice but a very different point of course to the one I'm making. Immortality would be nice as well.
Again more chez being chez, e.g. vacuum of honest and adult debate.

As you yourself said how ever much covid mutates its still covid, so its possible to make a vaccine that is effective against core features of covid given any set of mutations.

Its harder than getting a tweaked vaccine out the stable door once the horse has bolted but its much more achievable than immortality.
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07-14-2022 , 06:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
Rubbish.

But I'm glad you agree with my point. I thought you did
I did not agree with your point, because your point is:

The vacinees can be tweaked quickly so X

So X is your point, that vaccines can be tweaked quickly is just an neutral observation.

X (your point) is clearly incorrect given the ice age the tweaking takes relative to the vectors of infection and mutation, as I have clearly demonstrated, to the point you have not made a single honest attempt to refute my claims to it being incorrect.

You know all this but chez gonna chez.
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07-14-2022 , 06:03 AM
Your the one who insisted I was wrong while agreeing with the point I actually made.


Now we have agreed on that we can discuss somewhere if you want.
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