My goal is to take the minimum shots possible. If infection levels are rising and hospitals stresses building then I would want to get boosted. Realize there is some guess work to try and get out in front of that, but the signs each Fall/Winter seem to be present. IF not, I am fine with the 2 shots I got and my general health.



I think BC is swimming in covid currently. Everyone I know who avoided it here for 2 years+, has now got it, in the last 30 days or so.

Yeah, I think it would be fair to say the whole western world and then some has been swimming in it for the last few months, and like usual, in BC we're on the latter end of that wave. Thankfully, this wave appears to be far less serious than the first few, in terms of health outcomes.

For those of us 65 and older getting a booster (3rd shot) reduces deaths by about 5x as compared to those who have been vaccinated with no booster. It is also about 47x less likely to die than those who have never been vaccinated. This is based on the last data I saw published right before Omicron surged.

Its also on a curve so that the older you are the more effective the booster becomes.

At 65 I got a booster (in November) and was going to wait for my 4th shot until the beginning of the fall. I anticipate a bad winter (again) especially around late November/December/January.

My wife at 60 was going to get a 2nd booster before we travel to California for a wedding in early June. But she just tested positive for Covid. She seems OK with mild symptoms. But she has MS so all bets are off as to what is going to happen. I'm just glad her immune system hasn't overreacted.

I don't know what I am going to do. I might get my 2nd Booster before June because I will be travelling by plane where few people will be wearing masks... And of course it may all be moot if I come down with Covid now.

Yes i made that argument to a good friend of mine and my family who thought I was making a big mistake in not getting the booster.

I gave them the stats on how protected I was with Shots 1&2 and showed them what little difference, in real numbers the booster made to actual hospitalizations and Death rates.

One of the tricks, I find the media and the Health officials like to use is to talk about the percent gain or advantage. Oh you get 500% more protection. Well if you were less than 1 in a 100 with the 2 shots, going up 500% is not a lot more actual people in the hospital or dying.

One of good friends who is an engineer just could not accept my reasoning as he would say '500%' is always a meaningful change so why not take it. I explained to him you could offer me a lottery ticket now and I would not buy it due to the long odds of winning. If you offered me the same ticket but I get 5 numbers if I pay for 1 I am still turning it down. Because this really does not make me any more likely to win in real terms.

Now I am very fortunate as i am in good shape and have no other health issues at play. I respect people who do and any tiny increase in better outcomes is important to them.

So a friend of ours who had Omicron in January, has now got it again. She is a healthcare worker and as such is vax'd and boosted. Her first case was mild.

Reports seem to suggest this is very much the norm with Omicron. Any immunity, if it is present seems to only last about 3-4 months and then you are back in the pool for catching it.

I guess we have to hope that subsequent infections tend towards being less serious than prior ones? That each time you catch it, it is a milder version?

Covid is seeming like it might be the forever virus. Always present, always around, always evolving. Something that can only be managed for the more serious impacts.

+1

Will I get cancelled if I point out that this sounds kind of like the flu?

Most viruses that can infect humans are forever viruses, or at least, around for a long time viruses.

Until Musk actually takes full control social media: Yes!.

Actually it seems more likely it is trending to being more like the common cold but even a more virulent form.

And I am not speaking to health impacts with that, but more its presence in the community.

The flu seems to be truly seasonal for the most part. It has a pretty predictable element to it.

Colds tend to be more virulent and transmissible via seasons but are more around, year around than the flu and thus you are more likely to get a cold outside it prime seasons.

I think (and the data is early still) that sadly covid is going to remain pretty seasonal, but also be pretty impactful year around. Even more so than the cold.

If that proves true it is going to be very tough for the Vulnerable as they will struggle to avoid it all year long.

I hope that is not the case but it seems so far it may be trending that way.

Coronaviruses have been around for a long time. Why SARS-CoV-1 had its one run (two years) and never came back is more interesting than why SARS-CoV-2 will likely not.

I just found out that the Spanish Flu is still around. About 12,000 people die of it every year which makes sense since about 50,000 die annually of the Flu on average in the US. I assumed that was in the US but I don't know. Looking it up in Wikipedia it seems that it is the originator of H1N1 which has mutated and has caused several other outbreaks.

The difference between Covid and the Flu right now is that the latest mutation after 2 years is still far more deadly than the Flu. Without vaccines people are dying from Covid at a much greater clip than the Flu. The irony of course is that if everyone was vaccinated and boosted there would be hardly any deaths.

At the moment the daily average deaths from Covid would yield about 113,000 per year. A little over double the Flu average deaths per year. But that is now. We had a similar lull a year ago. If it goes up again over the winter as it has done the past two winters, we might very well see a huge upswing in deaths as well. So while Covid may eventually be like the Flu its not there yet...

If we assume Covid-19 will cause pretty much the exact same number of excess deaths as the flu, then its outbreak and that we lost control over it is a public health disaster of gargantuan proportions.

The flu's death tolls through history is enormous and its variants that cause especially deadly pandemics are similarly of the worst caliber in human history. So that something sounds like the flu is medically horrifying. But of course, we have internalized the flu to becoming a natural part of our lives, so it doesn't sound as bad to our ears.

Of course, by the evidence so far, Covid-19 is a fair bit worse than the flu, so that is a big oops. However, how that will develop in the future is still an unknown chapter. It could become worse, about the same or a lot more benign.

I know some people hate some of these terms but they are appropriate imo.

I think what we will see with Covid, if indeed it stays in this current iteration of what seems to be a 'forever virus' is that it will continue to take a significant number of lives until it culls the current population to a more resistant base. At which point it will seem to fade more, not because the virus is gone or got weaker but because there are simply less 'vulnerable' people for it to find, its work being done.

Covids casualty rate, while tied to the vaccines, is more tied to the vulnerable. Even with the vaccine the weak and vulnerable need to hide from this disease and the bulk of human losses will be in that group. If covid is forever circulating eventually all of those weak and vulnerable will get it and many will die.

As they continue to die off over time the population remaining will be becoming more and more resistant and stronger. A form of herd immunity starting to emerge.

Thru medical science we have achieved great successes in allowing people to live long lives managing a host of comorbidities, to very advanced ages. Covid seems to be the virus that hunts that group and will continue to reduce their numbers and then will recede, or be more like Spanish Flu, just taking a smaller toll, that we tend not to notice, unless it is one of our own.

To mock or not to mock? Should sites like the HermanCainAwards site be taken down for civility?

Do you fall on team 'It is wrong to speak ill of the dead and we should instead focus on the good they have done in their lives''

or

'there is a necessity to ridicule and point out the flaws of people with platforms who use those platforms in ways that is resulting the needless deaths of many others'.

And if you don't like the word 'mockery' there are you more ok if we say 'being very critical and pointing out the absurdities of the position the person promoted'





Column: Mocking anti-vaxxers’ COVID deaths is ghoulish, yes — but may be necessary

Among all the ways that COVID-19 affects our lives, the pandemic confronts us with a profound moral dilemma:

How should we react to the deaths of the unvaccinated?

On the one hand, a hallmark of civilized thought is the sense that every life is precious.

On the other, those who have deliberately flouted sober medical advice by refusing a vaccine known to reduce the risk of serious disease from the virus, including the risk to others, and end up in the hospital or the grave can be viewed as receiving their just deserts.

That’s even more true of those who not only refused the vaccine for themselves, but publicly advocated that others do so.

It has become common online and in social media for vaccine refusers and anti-vaccine advocates to become the target of ridicule after they come down with COVID-19 and especially if they die from it.

Witness the subreddit HermanCainAward, which Lili Loofbourow of Slate identified in September as “a site for heartless and unrepentant schadenfreude.”

...

...I have a slightly different take.

To begin with, let’s stipulate that not all people unvaccinated against COVID are alike. Some have remained unvaccinated for legitimate medical reasons — they may be children for whom the COVID vaccines haven’t yet been officially ruled safe, or people with genuine medical reasons for avoiding the vaccine.

Some may have legitimately faced obstacles in getting to a vaccination site and receiving the full series of shots before becoming exposed to the disease.

Others may have refused the vaccine because they’ve been deceived by the misinformation and disinformation spread by the anti-vaccine crowd such as anchors on Fox News.

The deaths of all those victims are truly lamentable.

Finally, there are those who have voiced public opposition to the vaccines — not all of whom are unvaccinated themselves. Some have couched their opposition in policy terms. Ernby fell into that category — she asserted opposition not to the vaccines as such, but to vaccination mandates....

Covid? What year is it?

I don't think these things matter much either way. I don't think they'll make people who listen to medical authorities feel any worse about their choices. Nor do I think they will convince skeptics or conspiracy-theorists.

Vaccine skepticism is best fought with presenting good evidence, building trust and making it a free choice. That isn't exactly the components of a Hollywood blockbuster, but it is true and tested.

`I am not skeptical of any benefits of Super Immunity with regards to Omicron.

Prior it was reported that Vaccine plus Natural infection seemed to produce an outside immune response (1000X antibodies) that endured much longer but that data I think was more tied to Delta.

I now numerous people who were double vax'd, got Omicron around xmas, and since then also got a Booster and now are not only getting Omicron again 4-5 months after last infection but also a worse case than they had the first time.

That seems to defy the position that you gain any type of super immunity.

I think the key to this virus is just being vax'd to reduce the severity of infection but also 'dose'. I have to think 'dose' matters and thus even if vax'd and 'super immune', if the dose you get in your second exposure is much worse than the dose you got in your first one, due to being in a compromised area, for a long period of time that has poor air circulation, then I think your second sickness will be worse than your first, if your first was due to a short term, limited exposure.

its very unlikely that a modern day fly outbreak could be anywhere near as bad as the worst ones you refer to from history. It still kills a lot of poeple but vaccnnes and improved treatments are huge game-changers.

On covid vaccines, immunity etc. the biggest danger is from variants that are not from the omicron lineage. They could be very different both in evading vacinnes/immunity and in deadlyness.

My niece has just tested +ve and fits something like that profile. Except it seems very mild this time so far while it was pretty nasty last time.

I don't think anybody cares anymore. Haven't seen a covid discussion amongst friend gatherings in months now.

95% of people walking around in public are maskless as well.

Ya it seems to go both ways. I know people who get is worse the second time and some who get it easier.

I was very hopeful that my case, last month, would be indicative for me that any future case would likely also be mild, but I don't think anyone can bank on that.

I think what matters most after getting vaccinated is 'dose'. Which means how infectious is the person when you have the misfortune to encounter them and also what is your exposure window, and time and circumstance.

If you are sitting in a car with a person who is full on infectious for a 3 hour ride with the windows up, you are going to get a good dose. If you are outside but sitting near someone you might get a tiny dose. You both test positive but one gets a worse outbreak. That is my guess anyway.


I think the profile of covid will be more like the suped up version of the common cold in that you can get it more than once per season or year and some times you get a bad cold and other times mild. But prior infection means little with regards to your next brush.

Strap yourself in Lads.

"NIH, Wuhan were working on monkeypox"



fwiw Im posting this for entertainment value, im not endorsing or denying anything in the loltubes.

Someone ping the bayes guy

You aren't getting off that easy. We can all see now that you are the second coming of Joe Rogan

Rut Roh: