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The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition
View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes
3,522 34.91%
No
5,626 55.76%
Undecided
941 9.33%

01-16-2013 , 07:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by otatop
What facts? You posted 3 sentences, two where you're amazed that more players show up when Stars is literally giving away money, and one about there being a big increase in Russians since Black Friday (I'm guessing?). Where are you getting your numbers for either of these?
You are a fool
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 07:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by otatop
Fold turn? You checked the flop (good), then checked the turn to him, and after he bet $1 (into a pot of ~$1.10ish) you decided to shove for an additional $.50 hoping he had a worse hand than you? Even the worst player is never folding when they're so obviously pot committed, so you're basically jamming praying he somehow got this far with a pure bluff and is going to fold.

I'm not trying to be mean by saying go post in BQ or micro NL.

Until you get over your mindset of every time you lose it's because "******s get lucky" or the site's out to get you, you're only winning because of luck. You have a long way to go in thinking about poker.
Well AQ is still top pair strong kicker, so you say it should still be folded to even if it's a pot sized bet? You are probably right, but I would be interested if you could elaborate why it should be folded?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 07:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo Fett
A lot of people do, but what are these numbers that make so little sense to you?
We are assuming every grinder and recreational on the site suddenly decides to increase there number of tables to win a milestone Multi tabling is hard even more so whithout the correct software and tools so we assume they have access to these or go on a whim.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnE OuT On RiVeR
We are assuming every grinder and recreational on the site suddenly decides to increase there number of tables to win a milestone Multi tabling is hard even more so whithout the correct software and tools so we assume they have access to these or go on a whim.
Is it possible that more then a few grinders who play on other sites might join in when there is money being given away? Is it also possible that not everyone finds multi tabling as hard as you do?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ILikeBeer
Is it possible that more then a few grinders who play on other sites might join in when there is money being given away? Is it also possible that not everyone finds multi tabling as hard as you do?
Now this is the essence.Let me address this its not more than a few grinders joining a site from another for a million to one chance.
Do I find it hard?You tell me Jedi! any player who multiples+20 tables is not useing software in order to facilitate this play.
THIS IS NOT MONEY BEING GIVEN AWAY.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Faen
Preflop it was 2 limpers, and he raised to 4c. I had AQ and 3 bet to 16c. Then he 4 bet me to 52c. Our stack sizes were about 2$, so he might have had a big hand. But then again he might be the ****** he is and I didn't want to give him credit enough to fold my AQ. So I thought AQ isn't really an all in hand but good enough to call the remaining cost to see the flop. He checked, I checked. Then comes the ace. He bets the pot at 1$ Our stack is at 1.50 so i just might as well shove which I do and hope that he had a weaker ace at best, even though I felt he had a set, but as it turned out it was 2 pair. Well that sucked.

What would you suggest that I could have done better?
Quote:
Originally Posted by otatop
Fold turn? You checked the flop (good), then checked the turn to him, and after he bet $1 (into a pot of ~$1.10ish) you decided to shove for an additional $.50 hoping he had a worse hand than you? Even the worst player is never folding when they're so obviously pot committed, so you're basically jamming praying he somehow got this far with a pure bluff and is going to fold.

I'm not trying to be mean by saying go post in BQ or micro NL.

Until you get over your mindset of every time you lose it's because "******s get lucky" or the site's out to get you, you're only winning because of luck. You have a long way to go in thinking about poker.
IMO folding the turn there sucks. It is a 4bet pot. There's approximately $1 in the pot and there's only $1.50 behind and he bets $1. No way you can fold when you hit TP of A's. Of course, if we don't know much about him, then there is a pretty good chance he'll show up with AK a good amount of the time.

Really the problem is pre-flop. Getting into a 3betting/4betting war pre-flop when you don't know much about the opponent isn't great.

Of course ta 2NL you probably can 3bet AQ for value vs. unknowns, but vs. a 4bet I would think it has to be a fold. If you knew something about the opponent, then maybe a shove could be fine. Calling doesn't seem too good to me.

But I don't really have a 4bet calling range.

Last edited by Lego05; 01-16-2013 at 08:42 PM.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnE OuT On RiVeR
We are assuming every grinder and recreational on the site suddenly decides to increase there number of tables to win a milestone Multi tabling is hard even more so whithout the correct software and tools so we assume they have access to these or go on a whim.
Again, what are the numbers? Are there 10% more players? 50% more? 2x more? 100x more?

Quote:
Originally Posted by OnE OuT On RiVeR
Now this is the essence.Let me address this its not more than a few grinders joining a site from another for a million to one chance.
Do I find it hard?You tell me Jedi! any player who multiples+20 tables is not useing software in order to facilitate this play.
THIS IS NOT MONEY BEING GIVEN AWAY.
It's not even remotely close to a million to one chance, so it's time to stop repeating that nonsense. And how is it not money being given away? Making a statement in all caps doesn't make it true.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnE OuT On RiVeR
Numbers still do not make sense unless a high% of the players on the site decided to play 15+tables for a lottery.I have the data but of the top of my head almost increase of 100k of cash game players.
A bunch of people actually start playing 24 tables just a bit before the milestone and just fold every hand until it is over.

Others play a lot of tables and don't fold every hand.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnE OuT On RiVeR
Now this is the essence.Let me address this its not more than a few grinders joining a site from another for a million to one chance.
Do I find it hard?You tell me Jedi! any player who multiples+20 tables is not useing software in order to facilitate this play.
THIS IS NOT MONEY BEING GIVEN AWAY.
I read this three times. You missed some words or jumbled some words or something. The above quote is not understandable.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:41 PM
LOL this makes me chuckle how do they pay the milestone hand per 1M of hands dealt so from hand x 1M/1 hands later you have a milestone.LOOK the numbers up for yourself.
I will tell you this with no doubt your biggest site Pokerstars is a fraud from top to bottom.

And let me say 1 million/1 hands is free money its free money a million/1 lottery tickets you all winner of the highest prizes distributed and that is free money right.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lego05
IMO folding the turn there sucks. It is a 4bet pot. There's approximately $1 in the pot and there's only $1.50 behind and he bets $1. No way you can fold. Of course, if we don't know much about him, then there is a pretty good chance he'll show up with AK a good amount of the time.

Really the problem is pre-flop. Getting into a 3betting/4betting war pre-flop when you don't know much about the opponent isn't great.

Of cours eta 2NL you probably can 3bet AQ for value vs. unknowns, but vs. a 4bet I would think it has to be a fold. If you knew something about the opponent, then maybe a shove could be fine. Calling doesn't seem too good to me.

But I don't really have a 4bet calling range.
Interesting post, what you say sounds logical to me. Thank you for your input
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Faen
Well AQ is still top pair strong kicker, so you say it should still be folded to even if it's a pot sized bet? You are probably right, but I would be interested if you could elaborate why it should be folded?
You have a strong hand, but up to this point Villain has represented a MONSTER. His minraise pre is a little dumb, but when he 4bets you, you should be suspicious. When he checks behind on the flop and pots the turn, he's almost never showing up with a hand that can't beat TPTK (K on the board makes your Q top kicker).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lego05
IMO folding the turn there sucks. It is a 4bet pot. There's approximately $1 in the pot and there's only $1.50 behind and he bets $1. No way you can fold when you hit TP of A's. Of course, if we don't know much about him, then there is a pretty good chance he'll show up with AK a good amount of the time.
I don't entirely disagree, and from a straight money standpoint I agree shoving's usually good here since we only have to be good ~37% of the time, it's just that lines like this SCREAM "Hello sir, please give me your money" to me. Better to bail and be out 26 bbs than shove and lose a stack the majority of the time.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnE OuT On RiVeR
LOL this makes me chuckle how do they pay the milestone hand per 1M of hands dealt so from hand x 1M hands later you have a milestone.LOOK the numbers up for yourself.
I will tell you this with no doubt your biggest site Pokerstars is a fraud from top to bottom.
So all this hand-wringing about all the extra players, and you actually have no idea whatsoever how many are playing. No surprise.

And if this is how you're getting your "one in a million" odds, LOL. Yes, if a person just played a single hand at any time with no idea where things were in relation to the milestone, their odds for that single hand would be one in a million. You think the extra player volume is explained by people coming to the site to play one hand? There is great awareness of when a big milestone is approaching - people start cranking up the number of tables they're playing as one approaches, and many are 24-tabling. Therefore, their odds are much closer to one in a thousand than one in a million.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnE OuT On RiVeR
LOL this makes me chuckle how do they pay the milestone hand per 1M of hands dealt so from hand x 1M/1 hands later you have a milestone.LOOK the numbers up for yourself.
Not sure what you are trying to say. Are you just stating that they pay a milestone every 1 million hands?
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnE OuT On RiVeR
I will tell you this with no doubt your biggest site Pokerstars is a fraud from top to bottom.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnE OuT On RiVeR
And let me say 1 million/1 hands is free money its free money a million/1 lottery tickets you all winner of the highest prizes distributed and that is free money right.
Does anybody know what meaning this sentence is trying to convey?
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01-16-2013 , 08:50 PM
Milestones as in your words are free money a million/1 chance is not free money in my book clear.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Faen
Interesting post, what you say sounds logical to me. Thank you for your input
No problem.

If you like discussing strategy in hands you should check out the strategy forums here. People are constantly discussing how to best play different hands.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnE OuT On RiVeR
Milestones as in your words are free money a million/1 chance is not free money in my book clear.
Actually, that would still be "free money being given away" (which is what I said - not just that it's free money, as it's obviously only free money for the lucky winners), but of course people who are coming there to try to win aren't playing even close to a million to one shot, as I've told you many times already.

Quote:
Originally Posted by keyman
This type of promotion has been going for quite a while. The threads for the last couple are:
and
If you want background information either, or both, of those threads can be skimmed.


Probability of hitting a milestone hand:

Cribbing and expanding on what I wrote in the Pokerstars 60/100 Billion Hand Promotion thread:

The way this is set up is that each Milestone Hand is forced onto a cash ring game table (i.e. HU is not eligible).

Given this set up, the probability of your winning breaks down to:

# of tables you are playing / # of active (i.e. occupied) non-HU CASH tables

I updated my survey of active non-HU cash tables as of an hour, or so, ago. There were 2,479 occupied non-HU cash tables active out of 17,044 tables reported by the client. This works out to 14.54% of the tables reported in the client being active non-HU cash tables. This percentage has significant inaccuracy given that counting the number of active tables was not an instantaneous process. [NOTE: This was at approximately 8PM PST on a Monday which is not a high activity time. It was also in the middle between two milestone hands.]

As the time approaches a millionth hand, I would expect the number of active, non-HU, cash tables to increase. Based on a partial counts I did around the time of the prior 1 millionth hand and the next millionth hand the number of active, non-HU, cash tables was significantly more dependent on overall traffic rather than how close it was to a millionth hand. To be in the right ballpark, let's assume an increase of active, non-HU, cash tables of 15%. This would be 2,659 tables out of 17,224, or 16.37% of tables.

If you were playing 24 tables at that time your chance of winning a millionth hand was 0.842% (1 in 118.79), which is a bit worse than your chance of being dealt AA or KK in your next hand.

The general formula for the probability of you being on the winning table for any particular Milestone Hand is:
# tables you are playing /(#tables reported by client * % tables which are active, non-HU cash)

Using binomial distribution to calculate the probability of a win in 301 tries:
probability of a win = 0.842%, 301 tries: the probability that you will hit at least once is 92.1%; twice 72.1%; thrice 46.5%


However, the reality is that this does not, necessarily, reflect what happens in the real world. It assumes that the time each hand is dealt at every table is completely random. By timing the point at which the next hand is dealt at your table you can make the odds of your table hitting be much better than those listed above. Instead of being something that is totally random, it can be dominated by your skill at correctly timing the point at which the prior hand ends.
Does a 1 in 119 shot count as free money to you? Does it help explain why the volume of players goes up, or are you determined to hold to your point of view regardless of evidence shown to you?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo Fett
So all this hand-wringing about all the extra players, and you actually have no idea whatsoever how many are playing. No surprise.

And if this is how you're getting your "one in a million" odds, LOL. Yes, if a person just played a single hand at any time with no idea where things were in relation to the milestone, their odds for that single hand would be one in a million. You think the extra player volume is explained by people coming to the site to play one hand? There is great awareness of when a big milestone is approaching - people start cranking up the number of tables they're playing as one approaches, and many are 24-tabling. Therefore, their odds are much closer to one in a thousand than one in a million.
THE HANDS ARE DEALT BY POKERSTARS AT 1M THIS IS WHEN A MILESTONE HITS.
Yes the player volume in regards to a lottery is far from explaining this no iI did not say one hand.GO look at the figures yourself the extra volume is not explained.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnE OuT On RiVeR
Now this is the essence.Let me address this its not more than a few grinders joining a site from another for a million to one chance.
Do I find it hard?You tell me Jedi! any player who multiples+20 tables is not useing software in order to facilitate this play.
THIS IS NOT MONEY BEING GIVEN AWAY.
And your source for this information is?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnE OuT On RiVeR
Milestones as in your words are free money a million/1 chance is not free money in my book clear.
According to you, milestones are free money. However, a million to 1 chance at winning money is not free money in my book.


^ I rewrote your thought. I think it is much easier to understand what you are saying when it is phrased and punctuated as I rewrote it.

But I don't know who the "you" is.
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01-16-2013 , 08:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ILikeBeer
And your source for this information is?
Look for yourself the data is out there.Er poker scout par exampler.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnE OuT On RiVeR
GO look at the figures yourself the extra volume is not explained.
How would I do that? I don't have access to player volumes during the milestones. You're the one making the assertions - what are you basing those assertions on?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lego05
According to you, milestones are free money. However, a million to 1 chance at winning money is not free money in my book.


^ I rewrote your thought. I think it is much easier to understand what you are saying when it is phrased and punctuated as I rewrote it.

But I don't know who the "you" is.
Goodnight fools we take existing facts and rework them to what you are trying to promote.You will also refuse to admit the simple fact milestone hands are dealt 1M.

Night Hitler.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 08:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by otatop
You have a strong hand, but up to this point Villain has represented a MONSTER. His minraise pre is a little dumb, but when he 4bets you, you should be suspicious. When he checks behind on the flop and pots the turn, he's almost never showing up with a hand that can't beat TPTK (K on the board makes your Q top kicker).
I don't entirely disagree, and from a straight money standpoint I agree shoving's usually good here since we only have to be good ~37% of the time, it's just that lines like this SCREAM "Hello sir, please give me your money" to me. Better to bail and be out 26 bbs than shove and lose a stack the majority of the time.
Yeah I agree with this as well. I'll keep it in mind. Thanks for your input
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
01-16-2013 , 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnE OuT On RiVeR
Goodnight fools we take existing facts and rework them to what you are trying to promote.You will also refuse to admit the simple fact milestone hands are dealt 1M.

Night Hitler.
Well done - make assertions, refuse to back them up when provided with contrary evidence, and then take your ball and go home.
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