The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition
To answer, your second question, you have almost said so, have rejected any claims or player stats that might suggest otherwise and demanded proof positive of rigging before you would ever believe that it might occur. You are entitled to your opinion, but IMO it is somewhat naive. It may be correct, but it may not be.
What reponse would you like to see instead? Your post above gives the impression that 'shills' are stating that there is 0% chance of any rigging and illogically attacking any posts to the contrary when this clearly isn't the case.
Nobody is 'rejecting stats that might suggest' rigging, they are asking for stats that might suggest rigging.
It will be the same guys, who suddenly change from thinking only the U.S. Government can properly regulate anything and nobody else in the world can, to thinking the U.S. Government is in the pocket of the new U.S. online casino companies.
Obviously the game experience and deal won't change for anyone so they will need new reasons to explain the patterns they see.
Obviously the game experience and deal won't change for anyone so they will need new reasons to explain the patterns they see.
If it becomes obvious that this is not the case, and the same events start happening like now, (money moved from older players with profit to newer players to create as many rebuys as possible, etc), time to give it up for good.
i never really thought much of the online poker is rigged claim but what i have witnessed recently has changed my mind.i lost £2000 the last week all on bad beats in heads up cash games. AA v JJ he hits a run to the jack, AK suited v AQ offsuit but he is the one who hits a flush.then with my last 200 dollars i entered the sunday million, it was near the bubble and i had a stack of around 60,000, i look down at AA and den see chip leader at the table gone all in for 90,000.i considered folding because of my horrible luck but i made the call. He has QQ.the flop comes A77 with no possiblilty of him hitting a flush.Turn Q, River Q....Are you ****ing ****ting me.i immediately excluded myself from playing for 180 days and dont think i will ever play again on pokerstars
i never really thought much of the online poker is rigged claim but what i have witnessed recently has changed my mind.i lost £2000 the last week all on bad beats in heads up cash games. AA v JJ he hits a run to the jack, AK suited v AQ offsuit but he is the one who hits a flush.then with my last 200 dollars i entered the sunday million, it was near the bubble and i had a stack of around 60,000, i look down at AA and den see chip leader at the table gone all in for 90,000.i considered folding because of my horrible luck but i made the call. He has QQ.the flop comes A77 with no possiblilty of him hitting a flush.Turn Q, River Q....Are you ****ing ****ting me.i immediately excluded myself from playing for 180 days and dont think i will ever play again on pokerstars
Wiki and Monteroy
I am an attorney who practiced law for 10 years. While I did not concentrate on litigation, I took part in a few trials on contract and corporate issues. You clearly do not understand the US judicial system. One case was over a guarantee of a bank loan in which the bank admitted that another co-guarantor paid the loan in full. And still the bank was suing the defendant-guarantor for the loan balance. The trail judge still refused to dismiss the bank's case, but the bank never took it to trial.
Look at the cases on whether poker is a game of skill or chance. Most US states have laws that define a game to be unlawful gambling if it is predominated by chance over skill. The PPA has litigated several cases claiming that poker room operators were not engaged in illegal gambling because poker is a game predominated by skill. In each case, expert statisticians have testified with statistics that poker results are largely determined by the skill of the players.
However, the prosecution has presented witnesses that basically testified about bad beats and that in any one hand an unlucky card can determine the results. The PPA and defense witnesses have countered that 75% of the hands do not reach showdown and are decided by player decisions (skill) not the turn of the cards.
Under your thinking, the judge in these cases would rule for the defense, poker room operator, and dismiss the case all the time. In fact, the PPA has lost more cases than it has won. In one case, the jury did rule in their favor, but the state's supreme court ruled that poker is so clearly a game of chance and illegal gambling that the trial judge erred in permitting the jury to decide the issue. The defense prevailed in one case which is still under appeal. In other cases, the judge ruled that poker is illegal gambling or the jury did; despite the statistical evidence. The basis was that poker is predominated by chance because in any one hand an unlucky card can determine the winner and deliver a bad beat to the loser despite his skill.
The sites have never presented real stats to show that their deal of the cards is fair and random. The all in analysis do not show prove this and are easily refutable. Even the authors of these analysis will admit that they are not complete hand history studies.
In fact, oral testimony by witnesses like in my previous posts would be difficult to impeach, especially if the bad luck streak was shown on a program like PT3 or HEM. Sure, the witness would admit that it could be variance, but if he then testified that he has never experienced such bad luck streaks when playing live poker, this would be difficult to counter. The site had better have a real auditor with a real audit of actual hand histories to support its side. The auditor had better testify that he audited all hand histories over a certain time with all the hole cards revealed in each hand and explain his audit and statistical methods.
Truthfully, I am trying to show the incompetence and randomness of the US legal system. I am also trying to show that anecotal evidence is worthwhile if it comes from a credible source. And IMO, lots of anecotal evidence deserves some consideration. But if you want to keep your minds totally closed to the possibility that one or more sites rig their deal of the cards fine. But you can't claim that you are more open-minded than BR or TPTk27 about the issue because you are not.
I am an attorney who practiced law for 10 years. While I did not concentrate on litigation, I took part in a few trials on contract and corporate issues. You clearly do not understand the US judicial system. One case was over a guarantee of a bank loan in which the bank admitted that another co-guarantor paid the loan in full. And still the bank was suing the defendant-guarantor for the loan balance. The trail judge still refused to dismiss the bank's case, but the bank never took it to trial.
Look at the cases on whether poker is a game of skill or chance. Most US states have laws that define a game to be unlawful gambling if it is predominated by chance over skill. The PPA has litigated several cases claiming that poker room operators were not engaged in illegal gambling because poker is a game predominated by skill. In each case, expert statisticians have testified with statistics that poker results are largely determined by the skill of the players.
However, the prosecution has presented witnesses that basically testified about bad beats and that in any one hand an unlucky card can determine the results. The PPA and defense witnesses have countered that 75% of the hands do not reach showdown and are decided by player decisions (skill) not the turn of the cards.
Under your thinking, the judge in these cases would rule for the defense, poker room operator, and dismiss the case all the time. In fact, the PPA has lost more cases than it has won. In one case, the jury did rule in their favor, but the state's supreme court ruled that poker is so clearly a game of chance and illegal gambling that the trial judge erred in permitting the jury to decide the issue. The defense prevailed in one case which is still under appeal. In other cases, the judge ruled that poker is illegal gambling or the jury did; despite the statistical evidence. The basis was that poker is predominated by chance because in any one hand an unlucky card can determine the winner and deliver a bad beat to the loser despite his skill.
The sites have never presented real stats to show that their deal of the cards is fair and random. The all in analysis do not show prove this and are easily refutable. Even the authors of these analysis will admit that they are not complete hand history studies.
In fact, oral testimony by witnesses like in my previous posts would be difficult to impeach, especially if the bad luck streak was shown on a program like PT3 or HEM. Sure, the witness would admit that it could be variance, but if he then testified that he has never experienced such bad luck streaks when playing live poker, this would be difficult to counter. The site had better have a real auditor with a real audit of actual hand histories to support its side. The auditor had better testify that he audited all hand histories over a certain time with all the hole cards revealed in each hand and explain his audit and statistical methods.
Truthfully, I am trying to show the incompetence and randomness of the US legal system. I am also trying to show that anecotal evidence is worthwhile if it comes from a credible source. And IMO, lots of anecotal evidence deserves some consideration. But if you want to keep your minds totally closed to the possibility that one or more sites rig their deal of the cards fine. But you can't claim that you are more open-minded than BR or TPTk27 about the issue because you are not.
But dont stop! This is what real players on here (which is very few) need to read. The truth should prevail sooner or later.
You weirdos bitch and moan about needing everyone's hands and the entire deck to do any stats, but somehow you know when people's accounts were created?
Monteroy,
What is your site? I would like to take a look.
What is your site? I would like to take a look.
Go to the Holdem Manager forums and ask how to set up a filter for exactly what you want, and then test it with your database and if your findings are interesting post them. Go to the stats forum and ask for help as well.
Realize that the EV tools in many of these programs are not perfect for post flop situations as they measure it on the odds from the time of the all-ins regardless of how many chips are bet at that time.
MY EV graphs are completely all over the place in SnGs because against the mega donks when I want to have fun I will go all in except a single chip (for one of us) pre-flop or on the flop, and then try to use "fold equity" on the turn by betting my single chip (have gotten a fold).
Imagine if 5399 chips goes in preflop with AA vs 55, but the last chip goes all in on the turn card of a 5 when the donk bets his last chip at that time. Even though 99.999% of the chips went in when I way ahead, the last chip on the turn went in when he was a 95/5 favorite so the expected equity of the hand will be much higher for him than it was in reality.
You are not a xenophobe or a crazed "everything is rigged against everyone all the time" kind of guy, so why not so the research I suggest and email the sites as I suggest and post the results. That would be interesting to read and might educate some of these other riggies how to actually properly research their beliefs for a change.
Realize that the EV tools in many of these programs are not perfect for post flop situations as they measure it on the odds from the time of the all-ins regardless of how many chips are bet at that time.
MY EV graphs are completely all over the place in SnGs because against the mega donks when I want to have fun I will go all in except a single chip (for one of us) pre-flop or on the flop, and then try to use "fold equity" on the turn by betting my single chip (have gotten a fold).
Imagine if 5399 chips goes in preflop with AA vs 55, but the last chip goes all in on the turn card of a 5 when the donk bets his last chip at that time. Even though 99.999% of the chips went in when I way ahead, the last chip on the turn went in when he was a 95/5 favorite so the expected equity of the hand will be much higher for him than it was in reality.
You are not a xenophobe or a crazed "everything is rigged against everyone all the time" kind of guy, so why not so the research I suggest and email the sites as I suggest and post the results. That would be interesting to read and might educate some of these other riggies how to actually properly research their beliefs for a change.
In 2008, I won about $1.03 in actual showdown winnings for every expected showdown $1.00; maybe somewhat lucky. But in 2009, it dropped to .93 for every expected $1.00 in winnings and never exceeded .95 until Black Friday when I stopped keeping records due to the fact that I am a US citizen and basically stopped playing after Black Friday. The responses to my previous posts were that it was all due to better opponents. But were the opponents that much better in 2009 than 2008?
I have posted other stats with similar responses. The most recent post you can find today on TPTK results which I ran from my HEM to test TPTK27's comment about TPTK versus TPWK. My experience is that from 2008 to 2011, my winnings decreased on every type of decent flopped hand. I don't know why for sure; it could have been better opponents. But it could have been some sort of post-flop odds adjustment by the sites where I played; mostly Cereus and PS.
I do know that my feeling (and review of hand histories) tells me that the bad beats that I experienced, even 2-5 outs after the flop, substantially increased in 2009 and later years. So did the ones in my favor, but fold more hands in which I feel that I am such a dog than many of my opponents. In fact, most of the time that I won due to a 2-5 bad beat luck out was due to my opponent slow playing his better hand on the flop. But I rarely slow play so most of my similar bad beats were in hands in which my opponent would call a bet larger than half the flop and then out draw me.
Before Black Friday, I was about the employ the services of a coach to review my hand histories to see what he thought and to see if I had any major leaks; not just not stealing enough but calling down too much etc.
Then Black Friday hit and the whole affair became pointless.
i never really thought much of the online poker is rigged claim but what i have witnessed recently has changed my mind.i lost £2000 the last week all on bad beats in heads up cash games. AA v JJ he hits a run to the jack, AK suited v AQ offsuit but he is the one who hits a flush.then with my last 200 dollars i entered the sunday million, it was near the bubble and i had a stack of around 60,000, i look down at AA and den see chip leader at the table gone all in for 90,000.i considered folding because of my horrible luck but i made the call. He has QQ.the flop comes A77 with no possiblilty of him hitting a flush.Turn Q, River Q....Are you ****ing ****ting me.i immediately excluded myself from playing for 180 days and dont think i will ever play again on pokerstars
It's interesting that you think people talking to you are always racebaiting you. Gee, what type of people will always think they are the targets of racebaiting...
Oh yea, do you have any? Still refusing to provide a shred of proof to back up your claim. Oh yea you forgot to answer if you will be bailing on the Mohawks once you don't need them anymore and play US sites? Something to be said about loyality you know.
As I said, read the blogs if you like since you lack the funds to bet on it if you do not believe it. An interesting side note is that a bunch of us exchanged percentages (for fun - or I guess in your world for degen gambling and or nittiness purposes), and I was the only one who cashed, so a lot of people who also played in the event are happy that my version of reality is the correct one.
Have you ever played a WSOP event? Yes or no?
Have you ever played a WSOP event? Yes or no?
That would remove a lot of risk of prosecution for you I suppose, so I can understand why you have those beliefs.
What are your thoughts about Oprah?
P.S. Want to see what a real degen is
But it could have been some sort of post-flop odds adjustment by the sites where I played; mostly Cereus and PS.
Monteroy, you are confusing all in EV with SECT. SECT is a third party program for HEM that tells you your expected winnings for all your showdown hands in which the opponent hole cards are known. It also measures actual showdown winnings which HEM does. I have posted my results in previous posts.
Create a thread in the stats forum or in the Holdem Manager forums on this topic and you will actually get genuine helpful advice that will point out any errors you might have done in interpreting the data.
I am confused why you are not doing that, and instead debating in this silly thread. I am pretty sure you are not the type of guy that needs emotional support from blatantdude, and simply posting here puts you in the same category as guys like him by default. You really want that?
Start a separate thread in a different forum and link it here.
Regarding all of the opther items you posted, th emain issue I have with your theory are the following:
- I do not see how the site makes any money from it
- I do not see how the sites keep this all a secret, even the ones that shut down
- I think a rig like yours that is based on such a complex mixture of human play decisions is by definition a completely impractical one for a huge number of players if a site is going to do a rig. A rig does have to be relatively simple (ie: super user) otherwise it only really works if the riggie is the center of the poker universe.
If you want to have a serious discussion on this then let us know where you start the new thread. If you want guys like blatant to quote you and say that every thing you say is completely true (regardless of what you say) then stick here or do that once in a while for amusement. I hope you will choose the former, but I understand the entertainment value of the latter as well.
What do you call ignoring facts and calling someone a racist while refusing to provide proof?
Oh yea, do you have any? Still refusing to provide a shred of proof to back up your claim. Oh yea you forgot to answer if you will be bailing on the Mohawks once you don't need them anymore and play US sites? Something to be said about loyality you know.
Oh yea, do you have any? Still refusing to provide a shred of proof to back up your claim. Oh yea you forgot to answer if you will be bailing on the Mohawks once you don't need them anymore and play US sites? Something to be said about loyality you know.
If you want to believe I have not played at the WSOP by this point that is totally fine with me and quite comical as well given the full conversation and all the available information on that topic.
I have news for you - playing in a WSOP event is not that big a deal. Ask your boss for a 25 cents an hour raise the next time you see him.
What are your thoughts on Jesse Jackson?
I hate prop bets (other than the 100/0 bets I offer here for entertainment) and gambling bores the hell out of me, and I refuse every prop bet for the sake of betting when offered to me (very few bother to offer them anymore).
This is where you can reverse polarity and call me a mega nit again that waits for AA if you are not too distracted by whatever TV show you are watching.
You are a total poker fanboy nerd which is also very comical. You have probably watched every poker TV show ever made. How many autographs do you have by now?
What do you think of the Isle of Man in general?
All the best.
P.S. Thanks for the breath of fresh air in this thread, it actually made it fun to post here again for a while. Hopefully you will visit some more to liven up the current riggie duds.
Anyone can look up your charming posting history to see exactly what you are.
You have never played in the WSOP and I have played in the WSOP. That properly explains why you did not see me at the WSOP!
Certainly no victims in the prostitution rings or the drug trade. Good analysis.
What do you think of the Isle of Man in general?
The Isle of man did the same as the Mohawk reservation. Sold out to make a killing moneywise to facilitate criminal activity and to further help people like you evade taxes and hide income. That is all they are.
Don't need to be there. Every event available online. Didn't see your name. Provide it.
Legalize and tax it. Those victims are a result of the black market. Wonder why none of the escorts in Nevada are victims of prostitution rings?
I know for yourself who probably doesn't pay taxes on winnings you have a high opinion of them but I feel any gaming whether online or live should be regulated and taxed and not hidden offshore where you can do whatever you want.[...]Sold out to make a killing moneywise to facilitate criminal activity and to further help people like you evade taxes and hide income. That is all they are.
Why do you always assume "shills" don't pay taxes?
You do know Monteroy isn't American, right?
I know for yourself who probably doesn't pay taxes on winnings you have a high opinion of them but I feel any gaming whether online or live should be regulated and taxed and not hidden offshore where you can do whatever you want. Things usually happen like Russ Hamilton ripping off his fellow poker players and then retiring to Bali Hai.
Sorry to disappoint you, but the business is run in a completely professional way, and my taxes are properly prepared by my accountant every year with every source of revenue documented and every related expense broken down.
You managed to be completely wrong yet again. Well done.
The Russ Hamilton reference made me chuckle. Can you go a single post without being such a silly poker fanboy and dropping poker celeb names everywhere?
Why don't you go watch some more TV, maybe a poker show is on.
What do you think about the French, Italians and Spanish that are regulating their own industries?
More fun if people look over your body of work to really appreciate it better. As I said, they need only search you and read away and enjoy.
I will absolutely do that once you share the equivalent information.
The tax evasion implication said to the guy who is the most anal that exists about documenting every penny and recording and keeping beyond detailed records of everything.
Sorry to disappoint you, but the business is run in a completely professional way, and my taxes are properly prepared by my accountant every year with every source of revenue documented and every related expense broken down.
Sorry to disappoint you, but the business is run in a completely professional way, and my taxes are properly prepared by my accountant every year with every source of revenue documented and every related expense broken down.
The Russ Hamilton reference made me chuckle. Can you go a single post without being such a silly poker fanboy and dropping poker celeb names everywhere?
No wonder you are so loyal to the KGC. That is of course till you start playing US sites. Or you may not since then there will be a paper trail of the taxes you refuse to pay when you win. So I assume you will use your Canadian residency to play offshore. May be a bit lonely though.
What do you think about the French, Italians and Spanish that are regulating their own industries?
Are you really saying there's no illegal prostitution in Nevada? Really?
Translation = I can't prove my cyber slander so I will continue the MSNBC smoke and mirror charade. Remember just keep throwing out the fearmonger buzzword "racist"
I don't have to. I admitted I didn't play in the WSOP. You say you did.
You have to keep records with your business because you are operating in an atmosphere that can track it down. Your winnings on offshore sites is different. You are telling me you reported that? I seriously doubt it.
What a surprise a tax dodger takes a sympathetic view on a person who used the offshore system to conspire and and steal from his peers all the time knowing none of them could do a single thing about it.
No wonder you are so loyal to the KGC. That is of course till you start playing US sites. Or you may not since then there will be a paper trail of the taxes you refuse to pay when you win. So I assume you will use your Canadian residency to play offshore. May be a bit lonely though.
Again with grasping at straws? I already answered this. I am for the legalization, regulation and taxation of all gaming whether live or online.
I don't have to. I admitted I didn't play in the WSOP. You say you did.
You have to keep records with your business because you are operating in an atmosphere that can track it down. Your winnings on offshore sites is different. You are telling me you reported that? I seriously doubt it.
What a surprise a tax dodger takes a sympathetic view on a person who used the offshore system to conspire and and steal from his peers all the time knowing none of them could do a single thing about it.
No wonder you are so loyal to the KGC. That is of course till you start playing US sites. Or you may not since then there will be a paper trail of the taxes you refuse to pay when you win. So I assume you will use your Canadian residency to play offshore. May be a bit lonely though.
Again with grasping at straws? I already answered this. I am for the legalization, regulation and taxation of all gaming whether live or online.
Come on. Prove it. Show that older players make less money than newer players.
It's OBVIOUS that the exact opposite is the case.
As it happens, TPTK is a roughly a break-even showdown hand for me. On the nitfest that is PokerStars, it loses money. On 888 it profits.
Are you suggesting that information like this is evidence of one or other site being rigged?
By tomorrow it will be back to normal with riggies posting mangled walls of texts and blatantdude quoting them and giving full support for their clear message, and shills making fun of blatantdude. That will certainly be fun.
Anyway, to conclude today's festivities...
You want to know exactly to the penny how much I made completing a promotion on Aztec Poker on PSO over half a decade ago I can tell you that broken down on a day by day basis.
I report every single penny as every single transaction to and from the sites are documented and reported.
I appreciate your need to find any personal attack that can work because I have been considerably more successful in this industry than you will ever be, but this one you are so off the mark that it is actually pathetic.
Do you pay taxes if you happen to win in any given year?
Case in point, how you interpreted my Russ Hamilton comment. Anyone who has a basic understanding of the English language knows I did not "support" him, rather I found it amusing that every single post of yours has to include some outdated poker celebrity in it.
Feel free to find my post where I was loyal to them. I do like asking you your opinions about them because that opens up your racist side for the world to see, but that has nothing to do with supporting the organization.
You know this and anyone can read it in our conversation.
You do the same on your play, right?
I do appreciate you are desperate to find some angle of personal attack that can work after being my bitch for years, but the tax evasion thing is actually the absolutely worst one you can pick given my history of being insanely detailed about everything in every business I have owned.
No shock, you tend to always be wrong.
For what it is worth, I do hope you get your $25 bankroll back on Tilt, because that will mean that people I know who are real players will get theirs as well.
All the best.
Sites use a variety of software and random number generators. The sites are competing against each other, not colluding together.
You've really got to stop posting complete fabrications. When you lie so often, no one will believe anything you say.
Being so ignorant really doesnt make you look very bright.
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