Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
Check the river. Even a weak regular would presumably squeeze rather than call with AJ and AT so I don't expect to see those too often. Two pairs that aren't aces up should be folding this river.
dave: Flop check is because you can never get three streets of value with only one pair queens, so you will have to check a street at some point. The flop is a good choice for a few complicated reasons.
Also, if he has a 9 or set, him value betting would be a bad idea because the board is so ugly that there's very little value in a bet. Would you call AQ if he bet? I wouldn't, what do you beat? So 9s and sets are better used as bluffcatchers.
OK, I'll have a go at explaining what this means to me, because I think Chris has made a very significant point.
Grinding online poker is a game of reciprocity. By this I mean that statistically we will in the long run experience every possible situation from both sides, eg holding AK with A75 board against someone holding 55, and holding 55 against someone holding AK. Our profits come from the difference between what we win and lose in each situation -lose less w AK or make a bit more with the set, and we're up.
When we have a made hand we want to make the most when we are ahead, and lose the least when we are behind. What matters mathematically,is what % of the time we're ahead, and what % of the time we're behind. With 1 pair, we are behind more often than when we have a set, so we need to control the pot size.
Checking the flop does several things: it reduces the streets available to a better hand to bet for value, saving us x% of our stack v a better hand; it makes us look weak, giving villain an opportunity to bet a worse pair, or bluff at us; it gives villain a free card, reducing the absolute value of our hand. Betting flop and checking turn often leads to villain betting out turn or river because we look weak, and then we have a difficult decision. Balancing these things indicates when to bet or check flop based on flop texture. I still haven't decided whether its better to bet and double barrell on drawy boards to induce mispriced calls, or to check and bet turn if it's a brick. Early pot inflation is expensive because of it's effect on later street bet sizes, but giving free cards on drawy boards means losing more small pots.
Position, therefore is the killer here; in position you have much more opportunity to control the pot, and therefore make fewer mistakes when you have second best hands and extract extra bets when you have the best hand.
Now, what have I missed?