How come when i click my link Two posts up its going to a thread I've never seen? Maybe This is why no one could explain to me, lol. Hey mods, I don't believe I can edit my post two above this one. The link in that post should be

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/36/stt-strategy/icm-101-calling-shoves-1k-post-227022/


Sent from my SGH-T989D using 2+2 Forums

That's a fold PF. You did about the worst thing you could do which is call. You either want to fold or raise against a 3x bet and a calller. You are in the SB which means you are out of position and the two players behind you while pretty loose you could be behind any ace rag right now. KJ is pretty awful it just looks pretty and unless you are flopping a flush two pair or a straight you can't do much post flop.

Looking for some feedback pls.... small sample I know, and probably some irrelevant #'s but guidance would be helpful...thx..9man reg speed Stars sng

For my last 10 game block I had: 2-2nds, 1-3rd, 3-4ths, 3-5ths, 1-9th(AA)

Felt like I played well, but damn hardly any cashes
total for all level of blinds:

hands: 709
VPIP : 14.5
PFR : 11.5
3bet : 3.5...4bet : 1.9
steal : 24.5
flopcbet 77... tunrcbet 85
set % 0
agg 7.2 .... agg% 20
WTSD 44 ?....w$sd 45
avg pre-flop allin ev 48......avg flop allin ev 87
sqz 2.6...... steal limped poton flop 64

winnings -15,000 chips....ev +3800 chips



when BB is @ 100 + level:when big blinds are 100 and up:

vpip .23....pfr 20
3bet 7.....4bet 0
steal 30
flop cbet 100
wtsd 61
agg 14... agg % 14
avg preflop allin ev 47....avg flop allin ev 92
winnings -15,000 chips, ev +1624 chips?

guess im wondering, where some holes are,.... ive played 50 in 5 days , but feel ive been getting better so didn't include those stats thx guys.... sorry if this is too long or in the wrong thread.

You can't really say much from small samples of hands, even over 10k hands stats won't be 100% accurate, maybe you got AA more than the last 10k hands. Another example, I think you would agree whether you place in the money or not over 10 games is largely luck. You should play late different than you play early, so your stats should be different in 10 games where you got deep than they would be if you busted 10 early due to bad luck.

Post hands where you aren't sure the best decision, and plug leaks to improve profitability. Looking at stats for 700 hands isn't going to tell you anything.

How would you go about playing a Triple or Nothing SNG? Would you play it similar to DoN game or would you play it similarly to a 9max and switch to DoN strategy closer to the bubble?

Similar to a don early just a little looser and same insane tight play depending on stacks 4 and 3 handed.

What you wanna hear:
You're cool, just running incredibly unlucky. Hey, +cEV and totally losing all the ****ing chips and busting with AA in 9th place, how in the world could that happen. Everyone feels sorry for you

The truth:
Everything can happen in 10 games. A sample to get an idea if you beat the games has at least four figures (note that also crushing players can lose or break-even over 1k 9man games and this is far from rare, variance is brutal).
Best approach is to post specific hands and study ICM instead of posting stats. gl

Would you say that shoving with rags like 82 off suit is just as good or better than shoving with a marginal hand like J9s because you are more likely to have live cards?

J9s is a 1000 times better better than 82o or some random **** ass hand

Yes sometimes what will be the weaker hand in a one vs one will do weaker vs someone's range, but generally speaking though better hand=better equity.

You also have to consider maybe you have A2o or w/e and it less equity when called than XY sooted, but you also get called less often when you have the ace in your hand. Same applies to J9s if you shove bvb, you get called slightly less often by A9 99 + numerous broadways. Having a deuce in your hand doesn't block **** and it's in general a lousy card

did you mean will do BETTER vs. someone's range...?

yes I did =p

I'm a noob to SNGs :
Merge - $2+$.20|<> NL - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
9M SNG

Hero (BB): 5,733.00 41/31/8.0 86h
SB: 7,767.00 21/15/3.0 86h

Hero posts ante 25.00, SB posts ante 25.00, SB posts SB 150.00, Hero posts BB 300.00

Pre Flop: (500.00) Hero has A 4

SB raises to 800.00, fold

SB wins 650.00

vil had been the tightest player at the table previously - I didn't see him get out of line. I was disappointed that I was HU w him. He did do some fishy things like he varied his raises pf to 3x - 2.5x ... also he was in the habit of potting post.

edit: I considered raising here with the ace "blocker" and since he wasn't goingto be 4b'ing light ... would that have been better than just folding? I don't think calling is an option...

Btw when I said fishy re pfr I meant that in the later levels say 100/200> I think that its standard to bring the pfr down to 2.5-2x? Certainly when the stacks get shallower and the blinds got higher I am making min raises pfr.

Looks like a pretty easy reshove unless you feel his range is quite strong and he's not folding when he makes it 800. Based on vill stats and your description, I'm shoving

Do not be disappointed to get HU vs the tightest player at the table! lol

Good stuff bro thanks!

I don't mind getting HU vs the loosest player either and looks like OP was lagbosin'

can anyone recommend a method for assessing variance using pt4?

All in EV in the graphs 'Display All-in Equity' and 'Overlay Net Adjusted'... and then 1k games for turbos/reg speeds and more for STs/hypers (idk 3k hypers or 5k STs). Even then its possible you are still running hot (you get AA more than everyone else will not show in AIEV for example), keep playing and assess your skill. Everyone is constantly improving. Small samples of games like 100 games mean little in the long term.

thanks man; i got that set up. so, the difference between the 2 lines would be the amount of variance? if the "net adjusted" line is higher than the "net expected chips won" line, that would signify bad variance?

No, you experienced 'bad variance' if your actual results lower than AIEV

ok gotcha. btw, what is the difference between "net won" and "net adjusted?"

If you get it in where win lose is neutral and you win a flip in $15 but lose flip in $7 your AIEV is $0 but your net is +$8.

thank you for the help!

Is there something that I can learn from comparing these two graphs? The only thing that I can think of is that I'm an ICM fish and need to learn the appropriate spots to get it in and when not too and of course that rake is too high.

What are the graphs of?