Yeah this is a completely reasonable point and it's well taken. My only response would be if you'd seen this guy at one of your tables over the past couple of orbits you'd *probably* assume the same. As a general rule I think what you say is definitely worth keeping in mind though.

A+ response sir.

Gaz, I think pre is fine either way, I prefer fold though. However if you raise pre you have to call his reshove. It would be pretty silly to raise into an Lagtards BB if you are going to fold to his action.

lol.

I have to admit I'm a little relieved to see some people coming in and saying pre seems ok. I was starting to worry that I'd really lost the plot some time over the past few weeks of not playing very much.

Limp pre for the banter

I guess the whole hand strategy for us here depends on how we would view our tournament should we lose a confrontation. As we know, losing confrontations costs us more equity than winning them gains us.

Given that reads are telling us the chance of facing a 3bet shove here are very significantly increased compared to a random situation, I would say don't raise pre only if you are not going to call a shove from BB.

If you are OK with calling an expected shove and the potential stack damage if you lose then the raise is fine.

Neither is definitely right or definitely wrong, but which position suits your style better, guaranteed ~3100 stack after this hand, or risking a stack between ~1400 and ~4800? Two IRL friends of mine are winning players at this BI level who would both say that losing and dropping to ~1400 occasionally would be worth it for the occasions when they can chip up to ~4800.

FWIW, I presonally would raise a random player, but open fold here with this read on BB, happy with my stack as it is. But then again I am only break even at STTs that aren't DON, and stack conserving DON tendencies greatly influence my style at the moment, so I don't often get 1st, although I'm trying to break the habit

I think pre is okay, and if I've seen him reraising crap, I'm calling this.

i fold pre, but we all know i am a nit. Raise is fine though and its a pretty trivial fold to the shove imo

cant be arsed to do a equity calc, but pretty sure he has to be on a ridic range for this to be a call

1315 into a pot of 2190 so 1.63 call it 1.6 - 1. You need to be 38.46 call it 38% vs. his range to call here profitably. Vs. top 12% of hands you are 38%. So he would need to be reshoving 77+ATo+A9s+KJo+KTsQTsJTs. Someone tell me if I did this right, I suck at real poker.

don't u need to do it based on $ev not cev?

ya that's why i need help. i dont know how to translate it over.

pretty sure this is how u do it, AR is pretty good at these so he can correct if I am wrong

Put in stack sizes into a ICM calculator such as http://www.poker-tools-online.com/icm.html

work out the equity of A)folding, B)calling and winning and C)calling and losing

the calculator with convert chips to $ev for you

so in this case player 1 is Gaz, player 5 is villian

A - Fold

Player Equity
Player 1
$22.16
Player 2
$14.22
Player 3
$7.47
Player 4
$23.28
Player 5
$13.49
Player 6
$19.39

B- Call and win

Player Equity
Player 1
$30.71
Player 2
$15.43
Player 3
$8.13
Player 4
$24.81
Player 5
$0.00
Player 6
$20.92


C - call and lose

Player Equity
Player 1
$11.80
Player 2
$14.25
Player 3
$7.48
Player 4
$23.32
Player 5
$23.72
Player 6
$19.43

now u work out the following

(A-C)/(B-C) is how often you must win the hand in order to make the call

so $10.36/$18.91 = 54.8%

then stove A9o versus what u think ur opponents hand range. Or put in ur opponents range and see what hand gives us this % chance of winning.

EDIT: when working out in stove how the hand fairs I wouldn't use the % if hands as stove is odd and has hands like K8s in its range before pocket fives for example

So in this case if we put A9o up against the range given by aggressive kid of 66+, AT+, KQ then A9o is only 30%. Against ur cev range it also looks pretty bad to call. Looks like we need something like 99+, Aqo to call here against a realistic reshove range

1. You take a look at the $ev you have if you fold now, here its 20%. Fold

2. You take a look at the $ev you have if you call now and win, here its 30.8%. Call & win

3. You take a look at the $ev you have if you call now and loose, here its 11.9%. Call & loose

4. So now its time to do some math:

0.2 = 0.308x + 0.119(1-x)

So thats the formula, we have the 20% on the left side and the 2 allins on the right side. We now want to know how often we need to win (x) and therefor how often we loose (1-x), to become breakeven compared to folding.

0.2 = 0.308x + 0.119 - 0.119x

0.081 = 0.189x

x = 0.428

We need 42.8% cEV to make calling BE accoding to ICM.

Ez game. Hope that helps.

lol ronny one of us is wrong prob me!

I hope so

Yeah but do you call? (oh, and your thoughts on preflop line plz?)

I haven't read all of this, but I think you need the CO/SB/BB all to be fairly tight or passive for this to be a profitable raise. As played, I think I am folding because we will be 45-55% favorites 2/3rds of the time, and whooped the other 1/3rd of the time.

pre i think is fine esp since btn will spaz with a lot of dumb hands. i think i call given your read but probably bottom or maybe JUST outside of bottom.

pkt ones did a 1k post showing how to call a 3 bet. and equity calcs in general

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/36...k-post-227022/

Thanks for the reply. If A9o is the bottom of your calling range vs his reshove, is your opening range also bottoming out somewhere around here too?

I think this is incorrect because you have not accounted for the fact that OP will lose 375, SB lose 75, and villain gain 450 in chips if OP folds. Rest all seems fine and should result in the same answer as Ronny.

yes, fundamentally and because i don't want to get it in vs btn a whole lot wider.

Looking at stove assuming previous eq calcs good, I think we prob have to call.

My guess - ~16%
320,200,848 games 0.520 secs 615,770,861 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.507% 52.41% 04.10% 167808253 13128031.00 { 66+, A6s+, KTs+, QJs, A8o+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 43.493% 39.39% 04.10% 126136533 13128031.00 { Ac9d }

Wide imo ~23%
441,774,432 games 0.652 secs 677,568,147 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.104% 48.25% 03.85% 213160226 17021885.50 { 22+, A3s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, A6o+, K9o+, QJo }
Hand 1: 47.896% 44.04% 03.85% 194570435 17021885.50 { Ac9d }

Edit: D'oh I'm tarded, guess stove saying we still need to fold imo.

yeah but stove doesn't understand overlays