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Whats a good win rate playing live 10/20 NL? Whats a good win rate playing live 10/20 NL?

01-27-2009 , 02:42 PM
lol Delecto says that everyone else has an ego problem but he's the one always fighting with people.

I play mostly live and I hate staying in one place for too long b/c most live players just depress me and staying at one casino for extended periods makes me get to know certain players deeper and confirm this thought and just depresses me more. Overhead is higher but its worth it. A non-poker conversation with them usually is a struggle. Got a backrub from a girl at the B a while ago and she talked to me about how depressing most of the people in that room are (non-poker perspective). This is a generalization; Paul and Gabe seem to be exceptions imo (even though I think Gabe is hella annoying, he seems to live a pretty balanced life and is friendly/happy). The online players that have defected to live play also seem to be exceptions.

Ever try talking to a live grinder about politics, an interesting book, thoughts on a museum, a thought-provoking film (not a superhero movie, an action movie, etc...). BarryG writes in Ace on the River that there's one thing you can leave in a poker room that will be there when you return...a book. So true.

Oh, point of this is that I think there's a direct correllation between winrate and happiness/life balace/non-degenerativeness.

I also agree with the posters that are saying that 200/hr as an average winrate is ridiculous. Few players have that, and it's certainly not the average. There are so many live pros that barely squeak out profit and who just live deluded fantasies about the times when they run good.
01-27-2009 , 03:02 PM
I certainly don't mind the quiet players but the ones that take live poker really seriously and can never crack a smile are just kind of annoying. Its always nice when there is one guy (like viffer?) or some table captain to make things more interesting/funny for everybody.

Cant wait to turn 21 soon and make a trip down to these dry 10/20 games. .
01-27-2009 , 03:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by viffer
sure i love to gamble, i just had a weight loss bet, i had a bet on if i could swim 1 mile never got that one concluded, i have made many bets that my poker buddy was bigger then theres ( im undefeated ).. what do you have in mind!!!!!

gid i cant wait to get back to west coast
LOL on the poker buddy bets. I'll PM you what I was thinking.
01-27-2009 , 03:24 PM
wow i'm so glad i was at commerce for 5 days w/o a laptop so i couldn't get dragged into this clusterfck. this thread is loltastic on so many levels.
01-27-2009 , 05:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fds
I also agree with the posters that are saying that 200/hr as an average winrate is ridiculous. Few players have that, and it's certainly not the average. There are so many live pros that barely squeak out profit and who just live deluded fantasies about the times when they run good.
Wow, where did someone say $200/hour is an average win rate? The average for 10/20 grinders is much lower, but a lot of them are pretty bad, yet good enough to win thanks to the presence of ******s.
01-27-2009 , 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikech
wow i'm so glad i was at commerce for 5 days w/o a laptop so i couldn't get dragged into this clusterfck. this thread is loltastic on so many levels.
Were you able to find something bigger than 10/20 over the last five days?
01-27-2009 , 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rekrul
its impossible to have a losing session in live 10/20 games during WSOP time
i also has neva lost a singel day during the world series
01-28-2009 , 02:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick Rivers
PS - I'll bet Skinny Jimmy has made $200/hour in the Bellagio game, and that's even counting his endless smoke breaks as time on the clock.
i'll take this bet. how much you wanna put on it?
01-28-2009 , 04:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikech
i'll take this bet. how much you wanna put on it?
How do you propose we resolve such a bet?
01-28-2009 , 06:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick Rivers
How do you propose we resolve such a bet?
nick,

let it go man! You are delusional, 1000%. Your novels regarding this matter are humerous in how lost you are on the topic.

nobody is doin your proposed $200/hr in playing time! Please get a clue, its too painful to see cause you are fairly well written and seem fairly well educated which fools us into listening to your absolute madness.

Please tell me you have seen the light so we can move onto a topic which CAN be argued, like Lebron or kobe?
01-28-2009 , 06:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick Rivers
How do you propose we resolve such a bet?
simple...we ask him. jimmy's a friend of mine and a stand-up guy. we tell him we have a prop bet on whether his hourly at 10-20 over the past two years (which is how long he's been playing it) is at least $200 and he just needs to say yes or no. if he declines to answer it's a push. we don't tell him who has which side of the bet. i trust that he'll either not answer the question or answer it honestly. deal?
01-28-2009 , 07:07 AM
mike lets drag you into this but i cant let you rape nick like that, id bet that its not even 100 a hour
01-28-2009 , 07:32 AM
Asking a guy his winrate is like asking him how big his **** is or how many women he's slept with; you're probably not getting an honest answer.
01-28-2009 , 08:04 AM
why would anyone lie about the number of women they've slept with? wtf

well i guess its ok to lie and lower the number when girls ask you
01-28-2009 , 01:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerFink
Asking a guy his winrate is like asking him how big his **** is or how many women he's slept with; you're probably not getting an honest answer.
01-28-2009 , 02:14 PM
so if he'll be prone to exaggerate, wouldn't the over be a great side to have? besides, we wouldn't be asking for him to give us a number; we'd be giving him a number and asking him over or under.

look, save your money nick. NOBODY has made 200/hr in the bellagio 10-20 over the last 2 yrs on a full-time basis. i'm not saying it's not possible, since it certainly is possible in theory, i'm just telling you nobody's actually done it. well, i'll hedge a little on that: i'm willing to bet a significant amount of money that the number is closer to 0 than it is to 5.
01-28-2009 , 04:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikech
simple...we ask him. jimmy's a friend of mine and a stand-up guy. we tell him we have a prop bet on whether his hourly at 10-20 over the past two years (which is how long he's been playing it) is at least $200 and he just needs to say yes or no. if he declines to answer it's a push. we don't tell him who has which side of the bet. i trust that he'll either not answer the question or answer it honestly. deal?
And then you're going to report back honestly? So, the bet is going to be decided by you asking a guy something he probably doesn't even know and then you telling me what you claim he told you? Then I have to figure out who you are and either collect or pay up. Sounds iffy, but I'm curious enough that I'm actually considering it still.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikech
look, save your money nick. NOBODY has made 200/hr in the bellagio 10-20 over the last 2 yrs on a full-time basis. i'm not saying it's not possible, since it certainly is possible in theory, i'm just telling you nobody's actually done it. well, i'll hedge a little on that: i'm willing to bet a significant amount of money that the number is closer to 0 than it is to 5.
If you believe as many as two people may have been able to make $200/hour or more on a full-time basis at the Bellagio 10/20 over the last two years, who would be better candidates for that than Jimmy? He plays at least as well as anyone else who plays that game regularly and, from everything I've heard on the matter, he also ran ridiculously hot for one of those two years. I can't think of anyone who has won more money in that game over such a duration in recent history. The only x-factor to me is how many hours he actually logs during a week.

Last edited by Nick Rivers; 01-28-2009 at 04:21 PM.
01-28-2009 , 04:35 PM
now you're just being disingenuous. you made it seem like you're frequently in vegas, it wouldn't be difficult to exchange contact info and meet at the bellagio next time you're in town. you also made it sound like you've played poker with both jimmy and viffer; it's probable that we've played in the same game as well. jimmy and viffer and lots of hsnl regs who know me irl and many hs live pros in vegas can vouch for the fact that i've never welched on a bet. if you're still worried let's escrow. in fact i should be far more worried about you so i'd prefer it.

you offered the bet in this thread, i'm taking you up on it. i already gave you an out cuz you're drawing slim and i don't feel it's very sporting to win your money here, so just take the out instead of making up bs excuses not to bet.
01-28-2009 , 05:03 PM
OK, I will PM you and we can figure out how to make this happen.
01-29-2009 , 12:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick Rivers
OK, I will PM you and we can figure out how to make this happen.
Please post results. I like your style Nick but as you know I agree w Mikech on this one. I strongly believe that there is no one who has played the 10/20 a heavy amount over the past 2 years that has averaged 200/hour for both years.
01-29-2009 , 12:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick Rivers
What kind of argument is this? You're comparing working stiffs to poker players, which is invalid on so many levels. First, a poker player actually has to maintain and build a bankroll. He can't go blow $80,000 after a $300,000 year on a Mercedes because he needs that $80,000 in order to keep moving up in stakes, in order to keep making more money. It takes a while to build a bankroll up to the point that you can always be ready to take on the great games when they happen to be spread. Even a 10/20 NL grinder should be substantially over-rolled for the standard 10/20 game, because there's always the possibility some random donk will sit down with $50,000 and play horribly. There's also the possibility that a 50/100 game will get spread and attract players who are unimaginably bad, so the EV-maximizing grinder has to be interested in constantly building his bankroll, to be ready for this situations. A surgeon or lawyer doesn't have this enormous expense looming over his head, and so he can spend his money in a multitude of ways not open to the prudent poker professional. A bankroll is, in fact, the biggest expense that a professional player has; it is money he can't spend, because it determines his ability to make more money in the future.
My thoughts exactly. For a long time, if I had money, it went to fund a new account: I wanted to have enough on FTP to play 50/100 (meaning ~150k) and multitable 25/50 on Stars and sit at 25/50-200/400 on UB. Then I went on a heater. Now I wanted enough on Stars to play 100/200 when it ran and keep my FTP account funded for some 100/200 and 200/400. Then 500/1k opened up and the value of storing money on FTP went up even more.

Long story short, as there's more and more value to having money on multiple sites and you have to have more and more buy-ins as a safe bankroll per site given the difficulty of redepositing/swapping and the higher variance of the games, you have to make waaaaay more money than an average square to indulge in some bull**** luxuries you don't particularly want or care for (country club membership, sick cars, yachts, etc.

Quote:
Also, considering the amount of debt the average so-called wealthy person is in, you're really fooling yourself if you think these people have their houses, cars, country club memberships, yachts, and so on paid for. It's not paid for; it's all in the form of loan, liens, mortgages, credit cards, and even more mortgages.
This is also a good point.

Quote:
Actually, the question posed was "what's a good win rate playing live 10/20 NL." Check the title of the thread. In my opinion, a "good win rate" is somewhere around $200/hour, counting only those hours spent at the table. Counting all time and expenses related to poker, it's obviously going to be lower, the number I gave being about $150/hour. Anyone who can do substantially better than that is probably better off seeking out bigger games and/or playing online. Someone who has played 10/20 NL live for 5 years is probably good at poker, but not as good as someone who plays 10/20 NL live for a year, crushes it, moves up to predominately 25/50 NL for a year, crushes it, and keeps moving up and crushing year after year and, as such, someone who has actually played 10/20 NL for five years straight probably isn't strong enough to beat the game for the maximum it can be beaten. A five year veteran of a live 10/20 NL game will also see many people come and go. He will see many people run hot and then bust out. He will see people play 10/20 for a few months only to be down at 1/2 within a year. He will see dozens of people fail for every person who successfully makes the transition to higher stakes games. Such a person would, in my opinion, tend to lowball what a good win rate is, because he will be jaded by his own performance and by witnessing so many would-be pros come and go.
While I agree with this to some extent, I do think that a lot of people are overestimating live winrates, based solely on the fact that
a) you get so few hands per hour (people who say how many hands they get per hour live tend to ignore all the hours that go by where one hand might take forever and you see like 10-15 hands for the hour)
b) live games are normally full-ring, and full-ring basically automatically reduces your BB/100 winrate
01-29-2009 , 03:52 AM
I've always averaged at least 100 an hour at 5/10 live. Through 400 hours at the Commerce since August, I'm at 105 an hour (and that's through a 15 buyin downswing of running awful for two months), and before that I was around the same mark at the bike while my buddy Bart was beating it for 120 an hour through 1k+ hours.

I can't believe some of the garbage that has slid by in this thread. For ****'s sake, Meatyfish said that only the best 10-20 players make even 100 an hour. Granted that meatyfish is awful, but I've seen others saying similar stuff as well.

Last edited by CitizenJames; 01-29-2009 at 04:15 AM.
01-29-2009 , 04:06 AM
nick,

mike is 100% legit.
01-29-2009 , 04:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CitizenJames
I've always averaged at least 100 an hour at 5/10 live. Through 400 hours at the Commerce since August, I'm at 105 an hour
400 hrs lol. you've determined your true sustainable winrate after 10,000 hands, sweet.

Quote:
my buddy Bart was beating it for 120 an hour through 1k+ hours.
so he's run hot for 6-8 months? good for him?
01-29-2009 , 04:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikech
400 hrs lol. you've determined your true sustainable winrate after 10,000 hands, sweet.


so he's run hot for 6-8 months? good for him?
No, I made the same at the Bike before that for a year and averaged more than 110 during the few hundred hours I've booked in Vegas. It would at least total over 1,500 hours and thus be the equivalence of 45k hands. Obviously it's not the end all of hours and hands logged, but with the lack of variance in live play as opposed to online, 45k hands at 100 an hour seems substantial enough to verify a winrate.

And 1k hours is not 6-8 months unless you're a machine that has huuuuge tolerances for ****ty people surrounding you and lack of sunlight. And even then, by over 1,000, I meant significantly over 1,000 (around 1,300, I believe).

Last edited by CitizenJames; 01-29-2009 at 05:20 AM. Reason: i'll say 1,500 hrs to be safe.

      
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