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Originally Posted by Nick Rivers
What kind of argument is this? You're comparing working stiffs to poker players, which is invalid on so many levels. First, a poker player actually has to maintain and build a bankroll. He can't go blow $80,000 after a $300,000 year on a Mercedes because he needs that $80,000 in order to keep moving up in stakes, in order to keep making more money. It takes a while to build a bankroll up to the point that you can always be ready to take on the great games when they happen to be spread. Even a 10/20 NL grinder should be substantially over-rolled for the standard 10/20 game, because there's always the possibility some random donk will sit down with $50,000 and play horribly. There's also the possibility that a 50/100 game will get spread and attract players who are unimaginably bad, so the EV-maximizing grinder has to be interested in constantly building his bankroll, to be ready for this situations. A surgeon or lawyer doesn't have this enormous expense looming over his head, and so he can spend his money in a multitude of ways not open to the prudent poker professional. A bankroll is, in fact, the biggest expense that a professional player has; it is money he can't spend, because it determines his ability to make more money in the future.
My thoughts exactly. For a long time, if I had money, it went to fund a new account: I wanted to have enough on FTP to play 50/100 (meaning ~150k) and multitable 25/50 on Stars and sit at 25/50-200/400 on UB. Then I went on a heater. Now I wanted enough on Stars to play 100/200 when it ran and keep my FTP account funded for some 100/200 and 200/400. Then 500/1k opened up and the value of storing money on FTP went up even more.
Long story short, as there's more and more value to having money on multiple sites and you have to have more and more buy-ins as a safe bankroll per site given the difficulty of redepositing/swapping and the higher variance of the games, you have to make waaaaay more money than an average square to indulge in some bull**** luxuries you don't particularly want or care for (country club membership, sick cars, yachts, etc.
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Also, considering the amount of debt the average so-called wealthy person is in, you're really fooling yourself if you think these people have their houses, cars, country club memberships, yachts, and so on paid for. It's not paid for; it's all in the form of loan, liens, mortgages, credit cards, and even more mortgages.
This is also a good point.
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Actually, the question posed was "what's a good win rate playing live 10/20 NL." Check the title of the thread. In my opinion, a "good win rate" is somewhere around $200/hour, counting only those hours spent at the table. Counting all time and expenses related to poker, it's obviously going to be lower, the number I gave being about $150/hour. Anyone who can do substantially better than that is probably better off seeking out bigger games and/or playing online. Someone who has played 10/20 NL live for 5 years is probably good at poker, but not as good as someone who plays 10/20 NL live for a year, crushes it, moves up to predominately 25/50 NL for a year, crushes it, and keeps moving up and crushing year after year and, as such, someone who has actually played 10/20 NL for five years straight probably isn't strong enough to beat the game for the maximum it can be beaten. A five year veteran of a live 10/20 NL game will also see many people come and go. He will see many people run hot and then bust out. He will see people play 10/20 for a few months only to be down at 1/2 within a year. He will see dozens of people fail for every person who successfully makes the transition to higher stakes games. Such a person would, in my opinion, tend to lowball what a good win rate is, because he will be jaded by his own performance and by witnessing so many would-be pros come and go.
While I agree with this to some extent, I do think that a lot of people are overestimating live winrates, based solely on the fact that
a) you get so few hands per hour (people who say how many hands they get per hour live tend to ignore all the hours that go by where one hand might take forever and you see like 10-15 hands for the hour)
b) live games are normally full-ring, and full-ring basically automatically reduces your BB/100 winrate