Worth noting too that the bet wouldn't just be if Abarone is *able* to get 90 cpg, but also if he actually achieves it over 4k games--which involves variance. If his true cpg is 90, there's still only a certain probability (which you can estimate using SwongSim) that he hits that number over 4k games (which isn't a huge sample...). Variance, even in chipEV, is pretty huge in spins.

Assuming that the odds he ends up getting are the true odds this would work in his favour

long, interesting interview with killuifuplay hf
https://spinsng.com/Blog/article/int...s-killuifuplay

Blablalba, and blablabla.

Cliffs:
1) Any decent 100s reg can get over 85cev at 15s. Well, not any, Smartspin guys and hungarian guys Im not sure.

2) The "hard" part is getting your true cEV in those X games, and getting those X games in Y time. People still think that variance doesnt exist, but Im pretty sure a lot of 3% ev guys are probably breakeven, just running good in X games.

3) Playing 4 or 5k games in 30days means that you wont be playing your Agame. To get 90cev you must play your Agame and not spew, less tables, and less hours.

4) Abarone is a crusher.

Rayden not allowed to play in my games! :P

Rayden you played 15s.Did you crushed it for over 100 cev?
All of a sudden we are talking 85 cev.Probably in a few weeks there would be prop bets that someone can make 80 cev.While at the moment there are regs at 15s that have 70 cev with big enough sample and who have played exclusively that limit.While you are crushing 3 limits higher.
Makes no sense to me.

"Any decent 100s reg can get over 85cev at 15s"
he didnt bring 85 into play, he was pointing out that it would be way too low for a challenge.

1. Hey Rayden, just out of curiosity can you explain why u think SS guys suck? I was in that stable for 1 year and a half and I thought most of the coaches are really good players, as well as 60s+ smartspinners.

2. Wheather or not a reg is able to get 85cev+ solely depends on how many fish are in the pool. You can be as good as you want in spins, if you are facing 2 other regs (even 15s regs) you won't be beating rake at all.

Lol that's just not even close to true. Sounds like a better prop bet to me, only 3 reg games count have to win at least 25c/game

I'm out for the 3 reg prop, but will bet loads on Ibavly to crush it

It was quite early this year, I was much worse but there were less staked guys, so probably still achievable.

http://i.imgur.com/XVcdwtp.png

http://i.imgur.com/SWBuAg8.jpg

Considering I was getting constant 60g/hr (9tabling I guess?) and more than 5hours a day, with a "solid" 8% ev, 100 cev for guys like aznra, razvanel... not any difficult.

ohly:
Cheers, you got the idea :P.

saintanna23:
Well, poker is a bitch. You can be a terrible player (from a theoretical point) and still make some money -due to people playing a poor nash equilibrium (hence you maxev vs them) vs you, or just because you run good.

Of course if you are staking over 200++ members, anyone got to be decent. But in general, my impression is that they click buttons. Literally. Guys like blooming, zuber, wafflebalbe, ytrer, perez or even the "mighty" ijustgamble, they are just plain bad. Well, I need to refine that: they are not terrible, they are playing poorly in my eyes, but maybe their general strategy/tendencies are ev+ vs the current pool and they make money.

There s a huge skill gap between the ones mentioned and guys like TeemTeem, FCD, and Weshero when he doesnt spew :d).

But is pretty obvious that the average 60s-100s "Smartspin" member is below the average compared to some spanish staking groups, bulgarian, english or topregs (**** u aznra, uninstall your dream machine).

ibavly:
I just woke up, but isnt 25cev below the breakeven point after rakeback or extremely close to it? I remember that it was 26 at 7% rake.

Anyway, if you are willing to play 3reg games to achieve 25cev, considering that anything below 3%ev relies on hitting and winning enough high multipliers to get remotely close to your actual expectation, either your ego is too big or you are dumber than I thought. Didnt run any sim, but Im pretty sure that close to 50% of the time you will be losing money in 5-6-7k games, and 200bis swings would be pretty common.

Spins is not about being the best reg, rake is unbeatable if there is not a good ratio of regs/recs as Saintanna pointed out.

It's funny that you think azn-ra can get 100 cev in any player pool... Although I can see his style crushing yours.

When he first appeared i think he had like 0-1% vs regs and after getting into cartels he improved his winrate to above 1% vs fish.

I don't see your point rayden. When we talk about making x chips/game multipliers should have no impact. Just talking about the odds of completing a challenge. I'm not planning to grind reg battles at 15s for a living

I'd love to read a book or article with the inside scoop on the full story of aznra, he's one of the big mysteries in poker. Unfortunately it would probably be written in zeroes and ones.

Still willing to bet against abarone (who I like, and think is one of the worst people to bet against in this exact bet).
Also will bet against literally anyone in the world on 100cev over the same volume/time

Really hope these props happen. Will be a lot of fun to sweat.

interested

https://slackhq.com/a-beginner-s-gui...43d#.i6wnx75bh

You are welcome. Pong is having the SQL (I mean sequel) to that almost finished.

u think azn-ra is gto bot?


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WHO IS THIS AZN RA? IS he crusher who used be BAD? Story?
I too want see this bet happen 100CEV 4K GAMES 30 DAYS v good watch!
Also why Radyne think Smartspin guys and hungarian guys not good? I play lots Hungaryan players seem good. I am sometime worry share notes and database, think do?

If they are in the same stable, it would be idiotic not to.

Sums up SCUM NASTY play in poker. Sharing in stables is so BAD. That why stars best NO hand history to save. HASTINGS F IDIOT LEAD.

Took the words right out of my mouth

prob happens alot less than u think tbh or at least id like to hope


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A lot harder in big stables like that Hungarian one mentioned. All it takes is one upset horse, coach or helper to report it and it puts a lot in jeopardy.

Not saying it can't happen in the larger ones, but I would imagine smaller groups and stables with a handful of people are more likely to do it.

Looks like some members of a staking group got banned for suspected account sharing and datamining.

forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28/internet-poker/connected-pokerstars-accounts-banned-1645084/

Database sharing is clearly unethical/illegal, but where do you even draw the line w/ notes sharing? Probably everyone is fine with saying to a friend what you think of a certain reg once in a while, and when a coach is reviewing video of his student he obviously says what he thinks about his student's opponents from his own history of playing against them.

So if a huge stable shares all of their own written notes in some systematic way, is it unethical? And if so, at what point does it become unethical?