What is a winning player's average win % in spin n go's?? Right now I'm winning about 1/3 of the spin n go's I play, what's the minimum win % we need to be profitable??

You need to be winning at least 36% to be winning pre rakeback and pre top 2 multipliers I believe. Not certain on that, some people have done the math, hopefully they'll link it.

swongsim
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You need to win 35.09% pre rakeback at $15+ but if you want to exclude the 3 big multipliers its 35.84%

Thanks MC!

Any more info about new hud? Pricing and whats improved since currrr hud?

Hey guys :-) Looking for husng/spin regs ($60s and higher) who would like to be interviewed for husng.com.

If you want to be introduced to the community reply here or write me a PM.

I would appreciate if you could spread this message amongst other regs.

Thanks!

So, are the 50 cent spin and go's permanent? Or is it just some promo that finishes at the end of the month?

Does 400 tournaments at the 15s mean anything when it comes to Chip EV or do I really need 2k+? (I was advised in this thread previously that my 75 chip EV after 2k games at the 7s was enough to prove I was a winner).

Obviously I plan to get more volume, but you know how it is, when you just start a new stake you're looking for any small bit of reassurance you can find. So yeah, 400 tournaments, 56 chip EV - does it mean anything or not?

No, 400 tournaments means nothing

Has anyone figured out confidence / sd for all-in adjusted cEV?

I'm also interested to hear if others have worked out some per-game stddev numbers, because I recently added the ability to simulate all-in adjusted cEV into SwongSim where the input is per-game CEV and stddev. (There is some skew in the distribution of per-game all-in adj cEV and that is not yet accounted for in the simulations).

coon74 reported that he had 350-400 per-game standard deviation for iPoker twister (antes) and I had 442 stddev on 1750 WPN Jackpots (they had a 25/50 level that Stars does not have).

coon74 also made an interesting post in the SwongSim thread about confidence. Here's a partial quote (for 350 stddev). For the important details, see forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=47153055&postcount=125

are spins this high variance, or do I just suck? these are all at $2 spins

I'm leaning towards both.

Can't tell because your sample is far too small. You also have money and chip lines on the same graph. You should use either both chips or both $ to determine if you're running above or below ev.

-4K chip EV in 236 games (-17 chips per tourney) => you surely need to work on your game.

only 840 micro games, this games are very frustrating for me. I know the samplesize is small but I thought it would be easier



the next graph is most 5$, 7$ and 20 games of 15$ the profit comes from 15$ yea I was lucky



and here all the stats:


Its pretty hard for me to analyze my game, I feel that I dont beat the games, on the other side the chips graph goes up

Hey guys, how big of a sample size do I need to know if I am a loser? Here's my stats so far, really want to get over the hump and become profitable, winning about 31%, but need to up my percentages. Any insight would be appreciated.

It's like no one has any concept of variance

that's not true. you're just looking at too small a sample size.

A+

So is a sample of 236 games enough to tell you you're a loser (i.e. -17 chips per game) but not enough to tell you you're a winner (i.e. my 400 tournaments with +56 chips per game?).

If so...how does that work?

Is there some maths around that explains precisely how many games you need to have 'x' amount of confidence about your winrate?

(biffles)

No, it doesn't tell you either.

I just went on a heater, won like 4 in a row, brought my roi to positive and money won to positive hah, good way to end night, and I understand variance, but there's always ways to improve, just looking at my results/stats and posting them on here made me realize I needed to tighten up a bit, made some adjustments and had a nice run =) so even posting and looking at my stuff on here helped me.

What would be the number of games needed to a get a fairly close guess at your chip EV?

800-1000 games atleast.