***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** - Page 709 - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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***HU SNG REGS THREAD***

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11-26-2009 , 05:35 PM

#17701

yaqh

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 5,745

Quote:

Originally Posted by starrazz

$1,000 bankroll
55 to 57.50
55%
$23
$34.50

is it not 52.5 to 57.5?

Quote

11-26-2009 , 06:02 PM

#17702

starrazz

banned

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,584

Quote:

Originally Posted by yaqh

is it not 52.5 to 57.5?

My edit and your post crossed at the same time. However, my original post was correct if you were entering those values. It would be 55 to 57.5.

Quote

11-26-2009 , 06:11 PM

#17703

yaqh

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 5,745

are you sure?

at the 55s, if you win, you increase your br by 52.5, and if you lose, you decrease your br by 57.5. so aren't your odds 52.5:57.5?

Quote

11-26-2009 , 06:13 PM

#17704

rendalli

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 597

Quote:

Originally Posted by yaqh

kelly says i should move up to the 2ks lol

I also tried it and he tells me: The odds are against you - you should not bet.

Probably because he suggested the 3K games for me, but then I had to adjust my probability of winning to 46%...

Quote

11-26-2009 , 06:30 PM

#17705

JSpazz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 6,694

It's 52.5-57.5 since you don't win rake back when you win a game. Otherwise the ROI in PT would show as 95%. The odds can be shortened to 90.46-100 for reg speeds or 91.30-100 for turbos.

Quote

11-26-2009 , 06:37 PM

#17706

starrazz

banned

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,584

I stand corrected. I really did try to see if I was wrong and the second time I analyzed it I still came up with my answer. I see that once you enter the tournament the fee is GONE. I had originally thought of it from a cash game perspective (incorrect obv) of paying $57.50 to win $55 but really you have to subtract the rake that is forever gone from your winnings so indeed 52.5:57.5.

In example I gave which won't let me edit it, should be 31.5:34.5

Quote

11-26-2009 , 06:37 PM

#17707

paddygo

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 531

hi i am new at this forum and will try to improve my heads up game.i play buy in 100 in cake and i dont know if im taking all the advantage i could.
how do you paste hands from cake?thank you in advance for your help.same nick in cake as in this forum.have a nice day

Quote

11-26-2009 , 06:46 PM

#17708

JSpazz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 6,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostalgica

That's the funny thing, I ALREADY DID THAT.

uh oh I guess I'm not safe either

Quote

11-26-2009 , 07:22 PM

#17709

NRFanshawe

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 77

One problem with Kelly criterion is that it assumes that our probability of winning doesn't change with the wager. This is pretty much a very bad assumption at HUSNGs. For instance, my experience with the $11.50 tourneys tells me that I play a lot better than the average player. I also have a relatively big BR for a $11.50 player (I'm thinking of moving up pretty soon, but that doesn't matter here). So this Kelly calculator tells me to play the $55s even with a relatively conservative estimate of my WR, but I am afraid that at my current stage of development as a poker player I'd be a losing player at the $55s.

Quote

11-26-2009 , 07:26 PM

#17710

Dies Irae

banned

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 368

No, this is ass-backwards. Kelly requires you to accurately estimate your probability of winning. For anyone interested in the Kelly criterion, this is a good read.

Last edited by Dies Irae; 11-26-2009 at 07:35 PM.

Quote

11-26-2009 , 07:33 PM

#17711

Dies Irae

banned

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 368

Also if you do a quarter-kelly or a half-kelly, your ROI would have to drop to a quarter or a half before you actually did something "wrong" according to the criterion.

Quote

11-26-2009 , 07:35 PM

#17712

starrazz

banned

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,584

Quote:

Originally Posted by NRFanshawe

No, not a problem at all. Enter your current win rate where you're at right now, along with all of the other data. If it says move up, THEN do another calculation with the winrate you think you'd have at that recommended level. If it still says to promote to that level, then go ahead if you are comfortable with a full Kelly. If it changes the recommendation down from, say, 55 to 33, then do yet another calculation with the winrate you think youd have at 33's, and if it still says go 33, then go ahead. If you get caught in a loop where it then says 55 again, then obviously youd go lower.

Quote

11-26-2009 , 07:52 PM

#17713

Henrik Vibskov

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 23

Quote:

Originally Posted by paddygo

Pretty sure there aren't hand history converters for Cake. You'll just have to copy + paste the text.

Quote

11-26-2009 , 08:00 PM

#17714

paddygo

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 531

ok ty

Quote

11-26-2009 , 08:01 PM

#17715

NRFanshawe

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 77

Okay, now I see how it works. The only problem is that it's pretty tough to estimate my WR at an unknown level. But I guess that's why they say to use a conservative estimate.

Quote

11-26-2009 , 08:25 PM

#17716

Henrik Vibskov

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 23

Anyone interested in teaming 4 man shootouts ($88+5)?

PM me if interested.

FWIW I have a 7% ROI over ~2k games at the turbos (33/55/110s).

Quote

11-26-2009 , 08:58 PM

#17717

Royle Bluntson

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 3,075

PM sent Henrik. lets rape some fools

Quote

11-26-2009 , 09:50 PM

#17718

sbfootball_84

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 3,412

these super turbos are gonna f up the future of HUSNG.

Quote

11-26-2009 , 09:50 PM

#17719

sbfootball_84

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 3,412

Quote:

Originally Posted by Henrik Vibskov

Anyone interested in teaming 4 man shootouts ($88+5)?

PM me if interested.

FWIW I have a 7% ROI over ~2k games at the turbos (33/55/110s).

whats ur screename?

Quote

11-26-2009 , 10:10 PM

#17720

viennashaker

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 581

Quote:

Originally Posted by sbfootball_84

these super turbos are gonna f up the future of HUSNG.

this is so true..

Quote

11-26-2009 , 10:31 PM

#17721

Henrik Vibskov

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 23

Quote:

Originally Posted by sbfootball_84

whats ur screename?

PM sent.

Quote

11-26-2009 , 10:38 PM

#17722

sbfootball_84

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 3,412

anyone want $200 on stars for $200 on ftp (i need it on ftp, can send you on stars)? can send first if you are reputable.

edit: discard this msg if its been 30 mins since i posted.