Quote:
Originally Posted by NRFanshawe
One problem with Kelly criterion is that it assumes that our probability of winning doesn't change with the wager. This is pretty much a very bad assumption at HUSNGs. For instance, my experience with the $11.50 tourneys tells me that I play a lot better than the average player. I also have a relatively big BR for a $11.50 player (I'm thinking of moving up pretty soon, but that doesn't matter here). So this Kelly calculator tells me to play the $55s even with a relatively conservative estimate of my WR, but I am afraid that at my current stage of development as a poker player I'd be a losing player at the $55s.
No, not a problem at all. Enter your current win rate where you're at right now, along with all of the other data. If it says move up, THEN do another calculation with the winrate you think you'd have at that recommended level. If it still says to promote to that level, then go ahead if you are comfortable with a full Kelly. If it changes the recommendation down from, say, 55 to 33, then do yet another calculation with the winrate you think youd have at 33's, and if it still says go 33, then go ahead. If you get caught in a loop where it then says 55 again, then obviously youd go lower.