Quote:
Originally Posted by ohly
my question goes together with the "good sample" question.
i just started out with hu, playing 11$ sng's (2 and 4 man). i'm coming from 50NL 6 max and am pretty overrolled. just played 120 games and made 33 buy-ins, so i am obviously running hot. at how many games and which winrate would you advice me to move up. i am a br nit and tilting very easily when confronted with my own failure. that's why i need to "KNOW" i will be beating the next level.
hope someone can help me.
ohly!
Unfortunately, the "know" you talk about is about as probable as you "knowing" your opponent's hand.
You have to consider that an opponent is likely bluffing say, 90% of the time in a spot. The other 10% you are beat. So when they flip the nuts, you shouldn't get angry. Now, if you assign the 90-10 chances in say 50 spots over 200 games and you are getting beat 50% of the time, then your reads are off and you need to rethink some things.
But, to your question, it is extremely likely that you are a winning player at your level, very very high probability. It's also very likely you are a winner (without tilting) at the next level. So go ahead and take that shot, if you're a little nervous, just take a 2-3 buyin shot, if you lose those 2-3 buyins, move back down and repeat the process when you rebuild those 2-3 buyins (or wait until you have a few more).
The main thing is that you're improving your game and moving up as you feel comfortable. But don't wait for it to feel 100% correct, if you're beating the current level and have the roll, go for it, just stay responsible with your bankroll and buyin levels you play, especially when on a downswing or emotional.