I mean correct me if I m wrong but my thinking on the hand is this.
BB call vs EP raise close to the bubble.
A
7
5
flop and BB checkraises. The only types of hands wanting to build a pot here vs a range that has a million Ax and strong flushdraws and all the nuts in it (granted two pairs only suited but still) are hands that have lots of and retain that equity well such as sets and combo draws. Sure some bad gutters with a heart sometimes decide to xr as well but I d be surprised if their frequency is above 10% of the overall xr range. Combodraws are 23hh 24hh 43hh 5xhh? 46hh 68hh 69hh 89hh. Value hands mainly are just sets as I doubt the a5 and a7 combos want to checkraise leaving the xcall range super vulnerable to barrels which are actually very likely to happen in this spot in the timbey. But sure throw a few in there on the flop. They won't matter on the river much.
Turn 4
(I think it was offsuit)
86 makes nuts, 23 makes nuts, sets are still the nuts and the pit plus draw hands have narrowed pads range so much that they (rightfully) perceive no gold equity on the turn and with the equity they have probably want to check and realize their ev for cheap which is going to happen a reasonable amount of the time rather than barrel and potentially get jammed on or whatever. I doubt many 5xhh xr the flop to begin with and the same thinking goes for turned 4xhh which has the little benefit of blocking A6 now but whatever.
When hab barrels here I think he ll be extremely weighted towards the butted hands he had and replied on the flop including the two pairs he did decide to xr. All together this turn is so good for yans range that I think many of not most Ax hands prob just wanna fold the turn right here and the only ones getting to the river from perspective will be "range calls" like black AK and some black AQ combos not blocking flush draws. AK being the much more likely one which then improves in the K
river which is sp obviously a good card for pads that tan just won't jam the few A5 and A7 combos he had to begin with and will likely just give up on the quarter combo of bluff he got to river with given the icm of the situation and the fact that pads will have AA 55 77 AK at a reasonably high frequency as played when hab has his bluffs unblocking these hands entirely. His nuts tho all beat those hands and as such happily jam hoping for some frequency of hero call from AK and simply being the nuts and not really caring much.
Think the above is quite reasonable and as such AK prob becomes a fold vs even David who isn't going to be blatantly unbalanced here but still just won't be punting his guaranteed cash away in a spot where pads has top2+ a ton
Would love to hear pads thoughts on this I might Obv be way off