Your flat vs 4b may look too nutted for his JJ. Could we even win occasionally vs KQ type cold4b? No guarantee bovadareg bets the flop with AK overs.
I'd take the showdown.
I've played a few spots where I took the same line, trying to fold a chop, but dont think this spot fits it well.
That spot would be xxb bluff


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I won't disagree with either of you. So here's my thoughts on it, and my opinion is either of you are correct depending on assumptions made.

Preflop/assumptions

1. I personally think based on experience, that villains range is something like TT+, AK, sometimes AQs and this is the widest his range is atm, so he may decide to have a tighter range like JJ+, AK that just never folds

2. Vs a 5b ship I think villain will fold AQs/TT and maybe JJ, but snaps everything else.

2.1 Vs a range of TT+, AK, AQs and under the assumption he folds TT/JJ(?), AQs. His overall range will contain: 6+6+6+3+3+9+3 = 36 combos, of which I assume TT/JJ/AQs may fold (15 combos)

i. equity vs. QQ+, AK vs. AKs is 41.90%
ii. If I shove I'm risking 91bb to win (9+3+23+1) = 36bb
iii. If called my portion to win is 91+36 = 127bb

2.2 Vs a range of JJ+, AK and under the assumption he never folds his overall range will contain 6+6+6+3+3 = 24 combos, of which I assume none will fold

i. equity vs JJ+, AK vs. AKs is 42.80%
ii. If I shove I'm never getting folds
iii. If called my portion to win is 91+36 = 127bb




EV(shove_range 2.1) = (frequency he folds)*(amount to win when he folds) + (frequency he calls)*(amount to win when he calls)*(frequency of win) - (frequency he calls)*(amount to lose when he calls)*(frequency of loss)

=(15/36)*(36bb) + (21/36)*(127)*(0.4190) - (21/36)*(91)*(1-0.4910)
= +~19bb


EV(shove_range 2.2) = 0.428*127 - (1-0.428)*(91) = 2.304

I'd imagine the real EV of my shove is somewhere between those two values (not counting rake), so if X is my EV then it is 2 < x < 19

Okay, so clearly shoving is +EV, no surprise there. I also don't think anyone would say calling is -EV. So the decision is basically on whether or not where my overall opponents range is: closer to 2.1 = shove, closer to 2.2 = call

So, I called.


Postflop/Assumptions

FLOP

Villain bets 20bb into 50bb

Let's go with the assumption he c-bets 100% and has a range somewhere in between 2.1/2.2 for simplification purposes:

i. Flop range assumption: TT(3), JJ+, AK, AQs(1) for 3+6+6+3+3+1 = 22 combos.

ii. Of this range I'll have 32.43% equity
iii. Let's assume just for arguments sake say I realize ~90% of this. I don't think this is too bad of an assumption because I honestly think he will check TT/JJ/AK/AQ on almost every turn and I have equity on QQ/KK and can bluff ship some turns/rivers when checked to (and he checks a lot) which will increase my equity realization by a ton. If you have the assumption he ships turns at high freq then my equity realization absolutely plummets, so it's very key here that I think he checks turns frequently.
iv. pot odds given to me is 20/90 or 22% = easy call

Turn

i. Villain will continue to check TT/JJ/AK/AQ and be very unbalanced (this is a very big assumption and key to the line I took)

River

i. Villains range is TT/JJ/AK/AQs = 3 + 6 + 9 + 1
ii. Villain folds AK(9) and AQ (1) and calls TT(3) and JJ(6)--villains overall folding frequency is 10/19
iii. When hero shoves river he is risking 56 to win 90

EV = (frequency of folds)*(90) - (1-frequency of folds)*(56)
= (10/19)*90 - (1-(10/19))*56 = 20.8bb

Played some 100z. Adam001 sweating on skype. Ended session with -60 or so. Couple minor mistakes, but not much action. Coulda been closer to BE

I don't think we need to bluff AK otr

I don't *need* to anything. I think shoving river is higher EV vs. the average regtard than checking--simple.

Hey bro. You`ve done some maths on shoving and said shoving river is higher EV ( I assum vs checking), but I haven`t seen the EV of checking in your calcs.
I`ve done this spot in CREV and it seems like EV(check)-EV(shove) = +6bb, given the exact range asumptions.

You put in a lot of work in those calcs, no doubt about it, but it might be work in the wrong direction.

I`m also not sure what people mean with the statement "I think it`s fine" without further more in-depth anaylsis on the hand.

Good luck at the tables !

Calculating EV of check need to split it up.

1/19 I spit with AQ and 9/19 we split w/ AK (lose the other remainder)

EV(check) = (10/19)*(90)*(0.50) = 23.7 bb

So you're correct, checking river would be >> shoving by 3bb. I should have checked that.

Hard to come up with more analysis regarding, "I think it's fine". Post was already TLDR.

So, hero made mistake otr and should have checked behind.



EV calcs shouldn't be working in the wrong direction. It's the only real way to come up with a quantitative way of proving your line is > another line as you quickly just did. It's very difficult to do by hand without CREV going into flops/turns/rivers and not all in spots though.

I was trying to point out that you put up a lot of work and come up with a lower EV result. This can become very costly if you use the lower EV result as your default strategy without double-checking your strategy starting from the beggining. The higher the frequency of the spot you`re analyzing, the more EV you`re going to give up in the long run.
Also reviewing current strategies after a certain amount of hands- sample big enough so you can make some asumptions - should be an interesting thing to do. In this way you don`t stick to doing the same things all the time and you can come up with even better +EV strategies for some spots.

Yes, I agree with everything.

It's really difficult to compare the EV of shoving pre to calling pre as the game tree is going to be quite large once we call pre. I can say EV of shove pre is definitely profitable and somewhere around 2-20bb positive.

The EV otr here I should have checked. I post the analysis and appreciate feedback from community so I can improve as well. I don't think I know everything and I appreciate your responses--specifically the fact that you went into CREV and double checked.

My analysis shows EV(check) - EV(shove) = 23.7 - 20.8 = 3.9bb, not 6bb though.

---------------------------------------------------------------

The latter half of your post regarding analysis of common spots w/ large database is really something I've wanted to do vs. population at bovada for a while. Since all HH are shown after 24h it's like I get an increase in sample size by a factor of 6... A database of 1m hands can be viewed as 6m hands... so really wanted to do more analysis regarding that and definitely need to get CREV and more experience with HEM2 filters.

It`s the EV starting from the preflop call, with known actions on every street. Range is the one you stated. It`s almost impossible to do street by street calcs by hand and doing only the EV of the river play is not concludent IMO.

EG : you flat preflop and you`re ahead 40% OTF, 40% OTT and 40% OTR. He bets 40%/50%/100%. Given direct odds 2:1 you have to call (+EV) because you`ll lose more money by folding. But you`ll lose money anyway since you were behind on every street.

EV(call) preflop = avg number from your database

Yh

I got bad news. My boss walked over to my desk at 5PM last night while I was working (I work 7a - 7p) and said, "Hey, you know you're working this weekend right? (I had Fri/sat/sun off). I was like, "You're joking right?" ... anyways, long story short is I'll have to work at least a little bit over this weekend I think, but I don't work today (Fri).

I grinded poker quite a bit last night after I got home from work and managed to win +$225 at 100nl reg/zone. Made a couple bad calls in some spots. Really need to work on that. Started out running poorly, but then ran quite hot + ran good in aiev spots.

Also, I got my HUD key back from holdemindicator. I asked them if I could get a new key because now I have a new laptop/desktop. They responded in 4 minutes to my E-mail and I got my key within 15 minutes. The support they have is ridiculously good even if they software was expensive to begin with they've always done a fantastic job of servicing me as a customer.

Another session done and another +$230 richer.

+$35 at 100z

Played about 1k hands of 100nl reg tables. +$600.


Streamed for two hours but no one stopped by and I was tired of talking to myself so stopped. Ran like god. Fish just donated all day to me. 200nl shots right around the corner already.

Do you know what your current risk of ruin is at 100nl and what would you estimate for 200nl?

Post here when you're going to stream(maybe 30-60 mins in advance), I'm sure people would help get you going and tune in.

0%, because I'd just move down stakes. I'll use like 20bi ish bankroll for shot. So once I get to ~4k+ I'll start incorporating 1 table of 200nl. I'm at ~3500 atm. Started with like 1800 some like 10 days ago. Last few days have been sick heater.

With 8bb win rate and 100bb std dev. need 1900bb for <5% risk of ruin according to pokerdope

Yes, absolutely good advice. I'll post here next time.


Keep the advice coming guys.

Grinded more. +$200. Started out quite bad and was -$200, but won a couple big pots all in quick succession towards end of my session.

+$800 day, I'm defo done now. Until tomorrow.

200 shots in the next few days? Let's see a 100 graph.

I won't be able to show graph until I get my desktop (2-3 weeks). I have one usable code left for HEM2 and I'm not going to put it on my laptop.

200 shots pry in a week or two barring any downswing. I still have work and stuff, ya know?

Super happy that I'm not having to go into work this weekend. Grinding has been great.

If you want to use holdem manager you can use it on the laptop then reset the serial when you get your desktop. Google "resetting Hold'em manager serial"
I just did his to switch from an old computer to a new one, and of course I have another computer with hold'em manager also on it.

Well I also only have one Bovada hand converter code.

You can reset those too, fyi, just email them.