Regardless, there's zero evidence you're beating any game for that WR over a meaningful sample. You're acting like 10bb/hr is ho-hum & you're destined to achieve it. It isn't, and you're not.

Dropped $1300 today at 2/5.

Well I lost $150 playing this daily MTT and the other $1150 at 2/5. Feels pretty bad dropping 2.5k in 2 days, especially given that all of this was at NLHE, no PLO at all, and I resisted the temptation to play 5/5.

Some hands included:
1) Getting my stack in with 99 on a T93T8 board, only to run into T9o. How does he even show up with T9o when he's UTG on a 9-handed table?
2) Check-folding river with KQo (no spade) after facing a $230 bet into a $210 pot on a Ts Js Qh Qs 5c board. Was pretty happy with this one, since villain showed me QTo, but damn, why isn't he being punished for flatting a raise with QTo?
3) Overbetting into a capped range against a guy that I thought was a decent player and had a fold button. He ended up stationing me off with TPNK. I would've taken this same line with TPGK+ too but I just happened to be bluffing this time.
4) Turning the nut straight on a KTXQ board, only for my opponent to find a hero fold with QT.
5) Raising pre with AK twice and AQ twice and whiffing all 4 times.
6) Set mining about 8 times, missing 7 of them and getting stacked on the 8th one (see hand 1).

So yeah, it just wasn't my day. Got to go to work now and deliver some pizza to ungrateful customers.

Live profit: +$11,889

Overbetting against capped range

$2/$5 blinds, 9-handed, $500 effective. Villain is a late 20s WG with headphones, doesn't seem like a station, but I've only played with him for 1 hour so can't be too certain with how he plays.

Villain limps $5 MP
Hero raises $25 HJ with AJhh
Villain calls $25

Flop ($52) is Ks Ts 7h

Villain checks
Hero bets $35
Villain calls $35

Turn ($115) is Ks Ts 7h 5c

Villain checks
Hero bets $80
Villain calls $80

River ($272) is Ks Ts 7h 5c 2d

Villain checks
Hero jams $360
Villain calls $360 with K8dd

Fwiw I play KQ the exact same way.

I love the river shove with AJ, hard to have other combos to bluff river with.

Sleep deprivation. Stuck in the crossroad.

For the past 3 nights, I haven't slept properly. This has caused me to be tired and consequently get tilted/bored easier when I'm grinding. Whilst I do attribute most of my losses these past few days to just run bad, I do think that I made some high variance decisions that were barely +EV at all, due to boredom. For example, iso raising ATo in the Lojack after 1-2 limpers isn't really that great of a play. I'd fold here if I wasn't tired, tilted and bored. Completing junk from the SB is another thing I've been doing too much of, as well as flatting too much from the BB just because I'm "already in for 1bb" and "closing the action".

So one of these days was beyond my control: the inspection day when I had to leave my apartment before 9am. But the other days were like, my girlfriend would wake up at 9am and that would half wake me up, then I'd try to go back to sleep but I'd feel this rush of energy telling me "you're a professional poker player now, you need to wake up at 9am every morning and quit this sh*tty nocturnal sleeping cycle", so I'd wake up feeling great, seeing the beautiful sunlight outside, but once I showered and got to the casino, it would struck me that I've only had 6hrs sleep per night. Enough to keep me awake, but little enough to keep me tilted.

Work keeps me up late. Work keeps me there till 1-2am every shift, and then I end up eating a meal after work and sleeping at 5am.

A part of me wants to just quit work today so that I can finally move on. I can finally fix my sleeping pattern once and for all. I can finally sign up to the gym. I can finally throw my work stuff away and move past it all. When you've made a firm decision to do something, but then you have to wait 2 weeks before you can actually do it, it's a bit frustrating. I want to become a pro now. I don't want to wait a week. But I have to, just because it's bad etiquette for me not to.

These last 7 days couldn't possibly go any slower...

Better than bluffing with missed spades tbh.

Losing $2,5k sucks. Good news is you can always play some 5/10 to get the bankroll back to a comfortable 7 buy ins.

Food for thought.....you can do a whole work out regiment for free and running/jogging is free as well. No need to add additional expenses to your life when you haven't even figured out what your income is yet.

Sent from my LGMS631 using Tapatalk

It seems like you understand nothing about edges and long term win rates.

You really think you have a 40-50bb/100 edge over the field? And that's not even accounting for your monkey tilt where you shove blind all-in from UTG.

There certainly are people beating 2/5 for 10bb/hr+ over significant samples, in fact at least one of them has posted itt, I just don’t think OP realises how truly difficult that is to do.

Correct. It's like OP seeing a P100D do 0-60 in 2,5 seconds and thinking he can do the same in his Opel Corsa.

Man, I might be getting pulled into the troll but oh well it will be a fun ride...

Yes.

They are liars. When you ask people how much money they make, their c*ck length, how many women they’ve bagged, their career history, they lie. It’s time to wake up.

In fact, working around quite a bit of people who are actually wealthy, I will tell you the one thing they have in common is that they keep it secret. They very often appear blue collar and certainly do not want strangers or even friends knowing their status.

So it’s actually simpler than saying “they’re just on heaters”. Because it’s not even that. They just lie dude. As does everyone else, about everything. Even to themselves.

looks fine to me from villain, except pre flop, we gotta defend most Kx on this runout though

Blocking the king but none of the spades and none of the straight draws makes this pretty much the perfect hand to call with.

Except preflop obviously. Gotta love when OP thought he had a nice opportunity to 3 barrel someone who limpcalls UTG.

Last week I pulled a friend aside and we had a "no BS" talk about win rates. This guy is a top player in my room and plays lots of 5/10 and some higher stakes. I specifically told him "I dont care about what you hear people saying. What do you think top end win rates are at 2/5 here?"

He said he thought there "might" be 3 guys in the room who could make $45/hr playing 2/5 in this room. This guy himself, who like I said does play higher stakes, said his lifetime win rate at 2/5 was under $40/hr

Another good player Ive talked to recently said he thought high $30s was the max obtainable. Of course if you play only late evenings and weekends you can improve on that.

Ive said plenty of times that my 2/5 games are very nitty so top end win rates are lower than other places, but Yes, there are very very few people who can make $50+/hr at 2/5. There are more people lying about doing it than the ones actually doing it.

50+ bux per hr at 2/5 is doable. So is running a legit 4.4 40. So is a 40+ inch vertical. Problem is all 3 of em are damn tough to do. 2/5 aint rocket science. But achieving a top shelf win rate as a full time player requires something that most can not seem to achieve. That is the ability to go in and play kick ass poker day in and day out - even when you are tired, bored, sad, etc. Playing with a level head - not taking it personal - understanding that getting it in as a 70/30 and losing is NOT a bad beat but something that just happens and happens and happens and will continue to happen. And you have to simply shrug it off and continue playing your game with out even going a little ******...let alone going full ******.

Yea, I've had similar private talks with very good players and am always surprised to hear mid $40s as well. A few people I would believe $75 if they told me and then they tell me $42 or something and Im like...oh.

10bb was likely more common in the early days and its just something that has carried on even though the landscape has greatly changed for the worse over the last decade.

Bluffing a guy you don't know. Not smart. Maybe just play KQ that way and not your AJs.

Take a break from poker until your job is over in a few days. Then you can devote your time to poker. Use your spare time to meditate and think about things.

Also, I guess these $40+/hr win rates at 2/5 NL are at US-based rooms where the rake is relatively low (i.e. 5% / $5 max / no BBJ/HH drop). If you're playing an average of 8-handed, 30 hands per hour and winning 5 hands (because you're a winning player) with pots won of $300, $100, $60, $20, $7 (pre-flop RFI all fold) then the rake you pay will be $14/hr.

In my room, the rake is 5% / $15 max / $2 BBJ drop. So take the same hands and the rake is $10/hr more plus $8 BBJ/HH drop. So that's $18/hr more costs. Ok so you win some of the BBJ/HH back (I've won 2 x $250 HH in 370 hours of play this year = $1.50/hour, which is definitely on the low side of variance, but I think it means max long term achievable win rates in my room are $30-$35/hr (which is also what I've heard said by long-time winning players in the room).

I think Aussie rakes are similar to mine, so no way that $40+/hr is doable in The Land of Oz.

Aussie rakes are even worse than that. 10%/ $15 max is fairly standard I believe.

Lol rich you only bluff people you know?

Bluffing someone with no history seems like a bad idea in a vacuum. The problem is with no history there is a good chance your opponent will be more likely to call you since you are unknown to him as well. Of course if you have the right read or feeling sometimes you gotta let it rip!

I think it's the opposite. People give unknown players more credit for a big hand when they take aggressive lines (at least online, not sure about live).

yeah that's not a good way to approach poker vs unknowns, you want to have a balanced range to make sure you're not making a mistake then adjust based on what they are calling with, or what they're folding if they somehow fold and show

Population tendency is to call too often. That's why live poker is so soft in the first place. The maximum exploitable line should be to bluff less than you would against good players, especially when they limpcall in the very same hand. Sure you don't technically make a mistake when you are balanced but good luck triple barreling unknowns and all the variance that comes with it. In fact do we even know how often OP triple barrels here if AJs is in it? He might bluff all the spades, all gutshots, all open enders.