Quote:
Originally Posted by adam001
"In general, 2 things should happen as you increase your bet size:
1) Your range becomes more polarised
2) You have more bluffs in your range
It's generally better to overbet rivers than it is to overbet flops and turns, since ranges tend to be much more polarised on later streets.
With a pot-sized bet, you ideally want to aim for 33% bluffs and 67% value.
With a 3x overbet, you can have 40-45% bluffs and 55-60% value.
Polarity comes from having a nut advantage (not necessarily a range advantage). For example, someone who flats a 3bet pre can overbet on a 87544 board, since they'll have far more nutted hands than the player who 3bet pre. They can pick some bluffs like T9s, J9s, JTs and 87s and then they can pick all their straights and boats for value."
I hope this helps you understand the concept of overbetting. " Singular post from earlier today, there are many examples. Compare to poker logic/writing format here. gg op, was a fun ride.
Yeah I posted that in the LLSNL forum. And I've posted many practical examples in this thread of hands where I overbet, either for value or as a bluff, or even (on page 1) where I merged for thin value. How is my writing any different there to here? Maybe you're just confused because my writing in the LLSNL forum is purely strategy-based and doesn't focus on the emotional side of the game.
Also, a lot of people have been telling me something along the lines of: "you've only got 25 buyins at 1/3, it's possible for a crusher to go on a 30 buyin downswing, plus you're eating into your bankroll for life purposes. You could easily go broke".
My response is: yes, it
could happen. I
could go broke. My plan isn't 100% foolproof. Maybe I'll get struck by lightning too, or maybe I'll die in a car crash on the taxi ride home, or maybe I'll get diagnosed with cancer, etc.
Life isn't about coming up with a plan that's 100% foolproof. There's always going to be risks and uncertainties. My goal is just to keep my risk of ruin below 10%. If I'm unlucky enough to go bust when my risk of ruin was under 10%, then bad luck.
Maybe I could find a full-time job and then get fired 2 months in and have no way to pay the bills. That could happen too. Stability isn't yet an option for me, so I have to deal with what I have. And I'm choosing to take a calculated risk that will probably work in my favour, but might fail.