I like flop/turn but my river sizing sucks, I need to think more about what I'm targeting.

Although I don't see KTs ever folding here even though it's 0 EV.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($449.99) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 60.2% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 323711]
BB ($200) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 8]
UTG ($202) [VPIP: 6.7% | PFR: 6.7% | AGG: 66.7% | Hands: 32]
HJ ($231.56) [VPIP: 73.5% | PFR: 26.5% | AGG: 41.3% | Hands: 34]
CO ($215.15) [VPIP: 18.2% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 57.1% | Flop Agg: 100% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 11]
BTN ($228.05) [VPIP: 30.8% | PFR: 19.2% | AGG: 42.9% | Hands: 26]

Dealt to Hero: A J

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $5, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $24, BB Folds, CO Calls $19

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.82 effective]
Flop ($50): 7 T 5
HERO Checks, CO Bets $15.75 (Rem. Stack: $175.40), HERO Raises To $47.25 (Rem. Stack: $378.74), CO Calls $31.50 (Rem. Stack: $143.90)

Turn ($144.50): 7 T 5 8
HERO Checks, CO Checks

River ($144.50): 7 T 5 8 Q
HERO Bets $378.74 (allin), CO Calls $143.90 (allin)



I think this play is mandatory OTR. No excuses.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($234.84) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 323711]
SB ($200) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 8]
BB ($202) [VPIP: 6.7% | PFR: 6.7% | AGG: 66.7% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 12.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 32]
HJ ($428.30) [VPIP: 18.2% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 57.1% | Hands: 11]
CO ($228.05) [VPIP: 30.8% | PFR: 19.2% | AGG: 42.9% | Hands: 26]

Dealt to Hero: K J

HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $5, SB Folds, BB Raises To $20, HERO Calls $15

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.44 effective]
Flop ($41): T 3 Q
BB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($41): T 3 Q 2
BB Bets $9.74 (Rem. Stack: $172.26), HERO Calls $9.74 (Rem. Stack: $205.10)

River ($60.48): T 3 Q 2 T
BB Bets $43.11 (Rem. Stack: $129.15), HERO Raises To $205.10 (allin), BB Folds

H1
I don't think flop play is good. Hand selection seems wrong.

H2
Why river is mandatory? The guy is playing 6%! of hands.
You should probably fold this pre vs nit.

H1.

Solver is high frequency xring if we decide to check flop. You want to XR flop more than theory in 3bps because they overfold relative to GTO (GTO is mid 30s and they fold low 40's)

H2.

Yeah I didn't have this information at the time, given the info I had I like my play.

I think they over fold to cbet as well. It makes more sense to xr with nut bdfd and cbet weaker ones imho.

I wanted to post this hand and see what you guys are doing OTT here.

Unknown Villain

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
CO ($296.21)
HERO ($218.80)
SB ($319.45) [VPIP: 29.7% | PFR: 21.6% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 39]
BB ($365.86) [VPIP: 35.7% | PFR: 31% | AGG: 38.1% | Hands: 42]

Dealt to Hero: K K

CO Raises To $4, HERO Raises To $16, SB Folds, BB Folds, CO Calls $12

Hero SPR on Flop: [6.66 effective]
Flop ($35): T 8 2
CO Checks, HERO Bets $17 (Rem. Stack: $185.80), CO Calls $17 (Rem. Stack: $267.21)

Turn ($69): T 8 2 Q
CO Checks, HERO Bets $35, CO Raises to $70, HERO ?

Very odd spot. 55% pot on the river left, hard to imagine a lot of rivers we fold. Maybe an A river we think about it. Main bluffs would be KJ bdfd and AJ (now a double gutter) bdfd which could at least maybe try to get AK to fold now on the turn. We block some of the KJ.

We are losing to J9, any flopped set, and QQ. QQ 4bets a lot, J9s might fold pre, might raise flop. Sets raise flop a lot.

Villain could be doing this with some value we beat though. AQs with a BDFD which we block. Maybe the one combo of KQs left. I feel like villains might be getting here with AQo more than they should be. Under 4betting pre and then maybe overcalling flop with that hand?

On the other hand, a minraise and then a 55% river shove should be an underbluffed line, but anyone who does a minraise seems like they might be a rec and therefore might also overbluff a node that mathematically cannot have too many bluffs. So maybe we just call and allow for the possibility of a river bluff.

Looks like solver prefers Ks to jam, I guess because we block KQs less. We also don't so heavily block KJs with a BDFD as when we have h/d/k, and we do deny a bit of equity to those hands by shoving, so blocking those bluffs isn't a huge deal.

I'd like to think I might take into consideration blocking/unblocking KQs. In practice I also might just randomize something like 50% shove 50% call, although I don't play in anonymous pools. I also probably wouldn't feel like shoving or calling Any combo of KK would be a huge EV difference.

But I don't really have MDA so I'm not super confident I'm right here. Would love to know your thoughts.

Fold.

I made a post in the micro stakes forum as well. But yeah MDA say's it's a fold (although I only have XC30-XR for this exact spot).

MDA here.

Agreed

Another spot I wanted to talk about that is important vs Fish.

When you have value OTF and you decide to check as OOP PFR and Fish stabs. Do you think Fish continue more when they stab small or stab bigger?

The results might surprise you.



So how do we play vs Fish better? This means the following:

You should put more value hands in your XR range when they stab small because they will call more often vs your XR. Be more likely slowplay vs bigger sizing's. And put more bluffs/overcard hands in your range vs bigger sizing's. Yes this is counterintuitive.

Way back in the old days, there was the Beluga theorem, which is still true today vs fish, since they are timeless in their approach to poker.

“You should strongly re-evaluate the strength of one-pair hands in the face of a raise on the turn.”

Fish don't change, I love it.

I always auto folded 1 pair back in the day vs turn min raise vs recs, I don't see it nearly as often nowadays though, auto folded unless I had a draw to suckout the obvious 2 pairs+

Yeah I noticed this in limped pots, when they OB the flop, they tend to be overbluffing.

hadn't really thought about it in SRP though

So we take a XC-X line with a weaker hand, and get to the river with no SDV. What would you say is an effective size to bluff the river with? Do we ever need to OB or can we just stick to B75 since they are inelastic?

Thanks for sharing. Is this data specifically for the 2x XR or any raise size? I'm assuming this size is more nutted than when bigger

Another spot where GTO can't save you.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($223.38) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 60.2% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 324002]
BB ($219.98) [VPIP: 21.2% | PFR: 15.2% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 34]
UTG ($485.20) [VPIP: 26.3% | PFR: 21.1% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 39]
HJ ($401.44) [VPIP: 36.8% | PFR: 28.9% | AGG: 50% | Flop Agg: 57.1% | Turn Agg: 20% | River Agg: 75% | 3Bet: 7.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 22.2% | Hands: 38]
CO ($559.47) [VPIP: 28.9% | PFR: 21.1% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 39]
BTN ($214.85) [VPIP: 26.3% | PFR: 23.7% | AGG: 41.7% | Hands: 39]

Dealt to Hero: T T

UTG Raises To $4, HJ Calls $4, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $26, BB Folds, UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $64, HERO ?

Stick to non OBs.

B70 has the highest discrepancy. Alpha is ~41% and population is 61%.

It's all xr sizings.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($200) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 324019]
BB ($259) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 100% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 200% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 20% | Hands: 11]
CO ($261.68) [VPIP: 36.4% | PFR: 27.3% | AGG: 25% | Hands: 11]
BTN ($900.53) [VPIP: 27.3% | PFR: 27.3% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 11]

Dealt to Hero: A A

CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $6, BB Calls $4

Hero SPR on Flop: [16.17 effective]
Flop ($12): 6 T K
HERO Bets $2.85 (Rem. Stack: $191.15), BB Calls $2.85 (Rem. Stack: $250.15)

Turn ($17.70): 6 T K 7
HERO Checks, BB Bets $10 (Rem. Stack: $240.15), HERO Calls $10 (Rem. Stack: $181.15)

River ($37.70): 6 T K 7 5
HERO Checks, BB Bets $14 (Rem. Stack: $226.15), HERO Raises To $42 (Rem. Stack: $139.15), BB Raises To $240.15 (allin), HERO Calls $139.15 (allin)

one of the bots isn't it? these sizings usually are

Yeah good catch I think you are right

biggest fish exploit is that when they bet half pot they have no clue why they are betting they are just clicking buttons so act accordingly

60k hand update.



Non poker related:

LFG Dodgecoin! If you aren't in the cryptomarket right now you aren't doing it right.

I need $1 by 2025.

Very nice. Surprised to see your rl stay flat with a wtsd so high. Props for the high vp style. You mind sharing pos vpips/rfi?

Anyways, gg.

Thx BP!

Sure np.