H1
I don't think flop play is good. Hand selection seems wrong.
H2
Why river is mandatory? The guy is playing 6%! of hands.
You should probably fold this pre vs nit.
H1.
Solver is high frequency xring if we decide to check flop. You want to XR flop more than theory in 3bps because they overfold relative to GTO (GTO is mid 30s and they fold low 40's)
H2.
Yeah I didn't have this information at the time, given the info I had I like my play.
Very odd spot. 55% pot on the river left, hard to imagine a lot of rivers we fold. Maybe an A river we think about it. Main bluffs would be KJ bdfd and AJ (now a double gutter) bdfd which could at least maybe try to get AK to fold now on the turn. We block some of the KJ.
We are losing to J9, any flopped set, and QQ. QQ 4bets a lot, J9s might fold pre, might raise flop. Sets raise flop a lot.
Villain could be doing this with some value we beat though. AQs with a BDFD which we block. Maybe the one combo of KQs left. I feel like villains might be getting here with AQo more than they should be. Under 4betting pre and then maybe overcalling flop with that hand?
On the other hand, a minraise and then a 55% river shove should be an underbluffed line, but anyone who does a minraise seems like they might be a rec and therefore might also overbluff a node that mathematically cannot have too many bluffs. So maybe we just call and allow for the possibility of a river bluff.
Looks like solver prefers Ks to jam, I guess because we block KQs less. We also don't so heavily block KJs with a BDFD as when we have h/d/k, and we do deny a bit of equity to those hands by shoving, so blocking those bluffs isn't a huge deal.
I'd like to think I might take into consideration blocking/unblocking KQs. In practice I also might just randomize something like 50% shove 50% call, although I don't play in anonymous pools. I also probably wouldn't feel like shoving or calling Any combo of KK would be a huge EV difference.
But I don't really have MDA so I'm not super confident I'm right here. Would love to know your thoughts.
Very odd spot. 55% pot on the river left, hard to imagine a lot of rivers we fold. Maybe an A river we think about it. Main bluffs would be KJ bdfd and AJ (now a double gutter) bdfd which could at least maybe try to get AK to fold now on the turn. We block some of the KJ.
We are losing to J9, any flopped set, and QQ. QQ 4bets a lot, J9s might fold pre, might raise flop. Sets raise flop a lot.
Villain could be doing this with some value we beat though. AQs with a BDFD which we block. Maybe the one combo of KQs left. I feel like villains might be getting here with AQo more than they should be. Under 4betting pre and then maybe overcalling flop with that hand?
On the other hand, a minraise and then a 55% river shove should be an underbluffed line, but anyone who does a minraise seems like they might be a rec and therefore might also overbluff a node that mathematically cannot have too many bluffs. So maybe we just call and allow for the possibility of a river bluff.
Looks like solver prefers Ks to jam, I guess because we block KQs less. We also don't so heavily block KJs with a BDFD as when we have h/d/k, and we do deny a bit of equity to those hands by shoving, so blocking those bluffs isn't a huge deal.
I'd like to think I might take into consideration blocking/unblocking KQs. In practice I also might just randomize something like 50% shove 50% call, although I don't play in anonymous pools. I also probably wouldn't feel like shoving or calling Any combo of KK would be a huge EV difference.
But I don't really have MDA so I'm not super confident I'm right here. Would love to know your thoughts.
I made a post in the micro stakes forum as well. But yeah MDA say's it's a fold (although I only have XC30-XR for this exact spot).
Another spot I wanted to talk about that is important vs Fish.
When you have value OTF and you decide to check as OOP PFR and Fish stabs. Do you think Fish continue more when they stab small or stab bigger?
The results might surprise you.
Spoiler:
SBvsBB
OOPvsIP flat
So how do we play vs Fish better? This means the following:
You should put more value hands in your XR range when they stab small because they will call more often vs your XR. Be more likely slowplay vs bigger sizing's. And put more bluffs/overcard hands in your range vs bigger sizing's. Yes this is counterintuitive.
I always auto folded 1 pair back in the day vs turn min raise vs recs, I don't see it nearly as often nowadays though, auto folded unless I had a draw to suckout the obvious 2 pairs+
Another spot I wanted to talk about that is important vs Fish.
When you have value OTF and you decide to check as OOP PFR and Fish stabs. Do you think Fish continue more when they stab small or stab bigger?
The results might surprise you.
Spoiler:
SBvsBB
OOPvsIP flat
So how do we play vs Fish better? This means the following:
You should put more value hands in your XR range when they stab small because they will call more often vs your XR. Be more likely slowplay vs bigger sizing's. And put more bluffs/overcard hands in your range vs bigger sizing's. Yes this is counterintuitive.
Yeah I noticed this in limped pots, when they OB the flop, they tend to be overbluffing.
hadn't really thought about it in SRP though
So we take a XC-X line with a weaker hand, and get to the river with no SDV. What would you say is an effective size to bluff the river with? Do we ever need to OB or can we just stick to B75 since they are inelastic?
Yeah I noticed this in limped pots, when they OB the flop, they tend to be overbluffing.
hadn't really thought about it in SRP though
So we take a XC-X line with a weaker hand, and get to the river with no SDV. What would you say is an effective size to bluff the river with? Do we ever need to OB or can we just stick to B75 since they are inelastic?
Stick to non OBs.
B70 has the highest discrepancy. Alpha is ~41% and population is 61%.