I can assure you these people aren't at 50nl

Okay bad play by me.

Vanilla regs = call

Goat regs = Raise 4x

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($219.29) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.1% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.1% | Hands: 321069]
BB ($307.72) [VPIP: 24.3% | PFR: 16.2% | AGG: 36.4% | Flop Agg: 30% | Turn Agg: 37.5% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3Bet: 15.4% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 14.3% | Hands: 37]
CO ($220.54) [VPIP: 38.5% | PFR: 11.5% | AGG: 23.8% | Hands: 27]
BTN ($195.50) [VPIP: 39.1% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 37.5% | Hands: 24]

Dealt to Hero: T Q

CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $6, BB Calls $4

Hero SPR on Flop: [17.77 effective]
Flop ($12): K T 9
HERO Bets $2 (Rem. Stack: $211.29), BB Calls $2 (Rem. Stack: $299.72)

Turn ($16): K T 9 5
HERO Checks, BB Bets $11.40 (Rem. Stack: $288.32), HERO Calls $11.40 (Rem. Stack: $199.89)

River ($38.80): K T 9 5 4
HERO Checks, BB Bets $27.65 (Rem. Stack: $260.67), HERO Calls $27.65 (Rem. Stack: $172.24)



MDA for C30-B70-B BBvsSB



Alpha = Risk/(Risk+Reward)

Alpha = 110.60/(110.60 + 27.65 + 38.80) = 110.60/177.05 = ~62.5%

Data says they fold 72%.

EV of raising 4x = 9.5%(110.6 + 27.65+ 38.80) = $16.80 = 8.4bbs

Data says they overbluff by 4% (29% is GTO for B70 and they bet 33%)

EV of calling = 4%(27.65 + 27.65 + 38.80) = $94.10 = $3.76 = <2bbs

Verdict:

CLEAR RAISE.

Someone check my napkin math but pretty sure it's right.

I still love this play, guy tanked for a year fwiw.

Probably should fold turn after thinking about it but once we get to the river. Love the jam.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($180.79) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.1% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.1% | Hands: 321170]
SB ($275.33) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 18.6% | AGG: 36.8% | Hands: 44]
BB ($200) [VPIP: 42.9% | PFR: 28.6% | AGG: 50% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 40% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 20% | Hands: 7]
UTG ($245.40) [VPIP: 18.8% | PFR: 18.8% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 16]
HJ ($208.84) [VPIP: 60% | PFR: 40% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 5]
CO ($269.29) [VPIP: 23.3% | PFR: 14% | AGG: 30.8% | Hands: 44]

Dealt to Hero: K K

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $5, SB Folds, BB Calls $3

Hero SPR on Flop: [15.98 effective]
Flop ($11): Q T T
BB Checks, HERO Bets $2.61 (Rem. Stack: $173.18), BB Raises To $10.45 (Rem. Stack: $184.55), HERO Calls $7.84 (Rem. Stack: $165.34)

Turn ($31.90): Q T T 5
BB Bets $36.31 (Rem. Stack: $148.24), HERO Calls $36.31 (Rem. Stack: $129.03)

River ($104.52): Q T T 5 Q
BB Checks, HERO Bets $129.03 (allin), BB Calls $129.03 (Rem. Stack: $19.21)

Interesting that solver basically pure checks OTR if it checks turn. I like my play as an exploit but XR could be cool too.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($228.27) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.1% | Cold Call: 9.2% | Hands: 321243]
UTG ($221.51) [VPIP: 22.2% | PFR: 8.3% | AGG: 27.8% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 40% | River Agg: 75% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 36]
HJ ($304.75) [VPIP: 27.8% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 31.3% | Hands: 36]
CO ($187.45) [VPIP: 44.4% | PFR: 5.6% | AGG: 39.3% | Hands: 36]
BTN ($227.30) [VPIP: 21.7% | PFR: 8.7% | AGG: 16.7% | Hands: 23]
SB ($102.34) [VPIP: 64% | PFR: 12% | AGG: 30% | Hands: 26]

Dealt to Hero: 4 6

UTG Raises To $5, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $3

Hero SPR on Flop: [19.68 effective]
Flop ($11): J 5 7
HERO Checks, UTG Checks

Turn ($11): J 5 7 8
HERO Checks, UTG Checks

River ($11): J 5 7 8 3
HERO Bets $30.45 (Rem. Stack: $192.82), UTG Calls $30.45 (Rem. Stack: $186.06)

Results on the K5o spot. Still not sure on this one but looks like the fold was good here.

Are you bluffing?

yeah

not a fan of the KK bluff, you’re hoping he folds 100% of range, it’s usually a pretty bad plan, could work against specific nits when olaying with screennames but in anon pool it seems -EV, not to mention you got more than enough showdown value here, he would give up a lot of bluffs on this river

Can't think of a reason to do it.

Yeah solver agrees with you, my problem is if I reverse the hand and put it in the microstakes forum. Everyone and their mom is folding T6ss here so I think it's good.

100% of range implies no bluffs so don't really agree with that.

I'm fine with people not agreeing with me, but for me to change my opinion I would need to see data on why bluffing KK is bad in this spot.

Yeah but you aren't playing microstakes.

Haha, I had a similar hand to this but it was played from the other point of view. I had some weak top pair as PFR IP I decided to check twice ready to bet river. Bottom card paired river and villain leads from 3x pot. My thought was, this is never a bluff and I folded. Don't know what he had.

It feels like the disgustingly huge overbets for like 2x-3x pot+ on the river are very often value where I feel like we should almost never call with a bluff catcher. Then there are the suspicious ones which are random sizes like 20bb into 17bb where I will at least consider calling with a good bluff catcher.

you beat the bluffs with KK though?

so you need to fold out a T which is his value range, so you’re trying to fold out tip top of his range

you are out to lunch if you think you're ever getting a fold from a full house here dude cmon lol

u don’t think a hand like JT folds?

not often enough for this bluff to be more profitable than checking back, i would imagine

Okay non poker related stuff I wanted to post here so I can look back later and see the progress.

1. Gym life.

I've been going to the gym 1x a week but trying to go 2x a week now, I don't really like going but it is a nice stress relief and you feel good afterwards so whatever.

Today we did BP/Squat/Planks

BP 225.

1x8
1x6
3x5

Squat 135 3x5

Planks 70 seconds 3x

Probably won't go again until later in the week and might do cardio.

2. Any Crypto Enthusiasts out there?

I just dumped some money into Dogecoin and hoping it moons.

Dogecoin price here on 2/19/2024



I'm definitely not an expert in this stuff but I've been following crypto since 2012. Dogecoin at 9 cents or so seems cheap as hell and I'll regret not buying it if it somehow goes to over $1 or something crazy so let's see what happens. Gambooool

Interested if other people follow crypto at all and what their thought's are on the overall market.

Talk soon.

Ahh crypto annonymous..

Hi everyone, i’m Ceres and I got into crypto about ten years ago. Back when you had to physically meet some random in a caf and prey you weren't getting sniped by gangsters or the cops. Cough cough silk road cough cough. Around that time a couple of mates got me mining MaxCoin (remember that?) one night on my old Sony Vaio and I was hooked. Things rapidly progressed from there into increasingly harder tech until actually -somehow – I ended up building my own milkcrate rig from scratch.



Made F-all. think we were mining Darkcoin? HEH, pffft

Anyway... it taught me how PCs work and other fun tech stuff so the hassle was net gain.

Plus, I did wise up eventually and nabbed 4 x BTC for keepsies back @ around $200. Screaming at everyone I knew in 2015 to mortgage the house goddammit – and did they listen?? Did they ****

Alas. life tanked. got sick, lost job, changed worlds. Had to incrementally spend all my satoshis waay before they fully matured to omg stakes. Hero probably made something like 20x profit overall but obv the trick is to either cash in sharply and reinvest for the inevitable alt pump or cling on like a nutter through destitution until Valhalla. And as I never really had either option I became just another washout like most overinvested poor people.


Cut to 2020, and I've moved on. I have a new life. I used to follow the Monero guy on twitter. Woke up one day and read this ambiguous tweet, something like: 'google how to buy dogecoin thank me later'. Soooo... promptly did what any sane person would do and emptied out the non-existent remains of my non-existent overdraft on a fcuking meme. In fact, I remember it was still quite annoying to buy doggy coin back then. Pre Coinbase.

And that was all just before that last stupid pump. Pre Elon. oof! Swung $500 -> $6000 in about a week. Vindication went to my head like a mf but I soon got pulverised in the wider game after publicly declaring myself ‘an expert ya’ and ‘diversifying’. Went all-in on Cardano (another 4x, am an actual genius at this point) and then, tragically, SOL until I got wiped out like most non bots. Same pattern, every time: incrementally wrecked trying to time exit points and paying Binance commissions.

That’s the real game.


Since then i haven’t been following at all so I have no decent info. Glancing at coinmarketcap it is funny/interesting to see the same top ten still going strong. Seems like the only way to play this pump pump stage is as a fun, slightly informed puntathon with spare change. Unless you get some kind of ridiculous tip that is. Spent hours going through trading videos during the Vid and trying to separate the Fibonaccis from the Fake Satoshis but it’s not very different from the poker ecosystem was my overall impression. 2% get wft lucky, while 5-10% of pros remain so perpetually far ahead without serious energy the chances of getting annihilated are positive to astro.

That said, you certainly can make a reasonable sum from peanuts if you play well and luck out. It’s all bankroll management at the end of the day and professional risk takers will always have innate advantages.

IF you like stress and fear. I knew this unemployed dude who made $200k on some shitcoin pump + dump and bought a house. That’s the way.

Nice story Ceres.

Yeah I don't plan on getting into the weeds on the technical analysis/fundamental analysis. A lot of it sounds like complete nonsense to me but what do I know. I have watched a few YT videos on the bitcoin/altcoin connection and historically BTC hits all time highs before the alt coins go up so I think that will have to happen first before dogecoin does anything significant.

Either way, it's a fun space to be in right now and I think everyone can make some $$$ if they are patient.

How did you make your redline so sexy?

Haha mine isn't even that good, you should check out @Newguyhere

Without getting too technical, the best way I can explain it is I try not to take hands off. If I think a spot is EV+ I blast off or call OTR. Here is an example hand.

This hand didn't work out but the data show's it's a profitable bluff.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($203) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 60.3% | 4Bet: 14.1% | Hands: 322434]
HJ ($205) [VPIP: 22.2% | PFR: 22.2% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 9]
CO ($195) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 28.6% | AGG: 0% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 100% | Fold to 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 7]
BTN ($198.76) [VPIP: 27.3% | PFR: 22.7% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 46]
SB ($290.05) [VPIP: 37.2% | PFR: 27.9% | AGG: 22.2% | Hands: 46]

Dealt to Hero: 7 6

HJ Folds, CO Raises To $4, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $24, CO Raises To $49, HERO Calls $25

Hero SPR on Flop: [1.47 effective]
Flop ($99): 4 A T
HERO Checks, CO Checks

Turn ($99): 4 A T Q
HERO Checks, CO Checks

River ($99): 4 A T Q 7
HERO Bets $154 (allin), CO Calls $146 (allin)

Crazy spot from OOP's perspective. You are never supposed to have a shoving range OTR. It doesn't matter if you have a straight.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($216.47) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.1% | Hands: 322535]
BTN ($256.57) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 17.3% | AGG: 14.3% | Hands: 52]
SB ($200) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 23.1% | AGG: 40% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 40% | River Agg: 40% | 3Bet: 18.8% | Fold to 3Bet: 100% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 41]
BB ($511.87) [VPIP: 20.4% | PFR: 16.3% | AGG: 21.4% | Hands: 52]

Dealt to Hero: 7 8

HERO Raises To $4, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $20, BB Folds, HERO Calls $16

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.29 effective]
Flop ($42): J 8 9
SB Bets $19.95 (Rem. Stack: $160.05), HERO Calls $19.95 (Rem. Stack: $176.52)

Turn ($81.90): J 8 9 5
SB Bets $55.23 (Rem. Stack: $104.82), HERO Calls $55.23 (Rem. Stack: $121.29)

River ($192.36): J 8 9 5 7
SB Bets $104.82 (allin), HERO Folds

Poker is weird. This is a donk lead spot for SB.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($206.95) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.1% | Hands: 322676]
BB ($252.70) [VPIP: 43.2% | PFR: 31.8% | AGG: 40% | Flop Agg: 55.6% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 13% | Fold to 3Bet: 25% | 4Bet: 25% | Hands: 44]
UTG ($1486.57) [VPIP: 28.9% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 57.1% | Hands: 45]
HJ ($200) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 6]
CO ($217.26) [VPIP: 7.4% | PFR: 7.4% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 27]
BTN ($214.21) [VPIP: 22.2% | PFR: 17.8% | AGG: 63.6% | Hands: 45]

Dealt to Hero: J A

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $6, BB Raises To $18, HERO Calls $12

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.25 effective]
Flop ($36): A T K
HERO Checks, BB Bets $14 (Rem. Stack: $220.70), HERO Calls $14 (Rem. Stack: $174.95)

Turn ($64): A T K K
HERO Checks, BB Checks

River ($64): A T K K 4
HERO Checks, BB Checks

I remember seeing a coaching video a while back talking about spots where you can donk on ace high flops.

I think the gist here is you have hands like 3c3x, 4c4x which:

1. Are sometimes the best hand, but have trouble realizing equity because they can't really call bets. If 7h6h bets, we fold and lose. If it checks, it may realize substantial equity vs our exact hand. If we bet against 7h6h, we win.

2. Sometimes we can get better hands to fold now or on future streets, like 66. We can also get called by some worse hands like flush draws.

3. We don't care if we get raised when we bet these hands, they become easy folds. They don't benefit much from being able to check call or from letting free cards roll off. The don't function well as check-raises either. In more dynamic, boards we tend to have hands that benefit from check calling and villain checking back, but it is a disaster for them when they bet and we get raised. We protect those hands by checking our entire range which contains even our strong hands like sets on most boards. On those boards, we get to check raise and stack our opponents overpairs, where on this board there is no overpair vs middle and bottom set dynamic.

On top of that, we have a lot of strong hands on this board since we open raise and call a 3bet with a lot of Ax. We also have AT, KT, TT QJs. We just don't have AA, KK, and AK. But BB's range has loads of garbage like suited connectors without clubs. We have enough of our range that is strong enough to support betting at a frequency that protects our low equity bet-folds.