Quote:
Originally Posted by 6betpot
It has 52% equity vs atc so it just doesn't make the cut.
Who is laughing now at mister equity calculator
But there was also his initial raise to open plus the blinds are already in there too.
However, if paisting is definitely in "every single hand gets shoved" mode (and not a more conservative "shoving 80% of the time" or something...does he ever fold if the pot is already 3 bet when it gets to him?) then raising 3x preflop before it is paisting's turn basically counts as being part of the shove-call and really shouldn't be considered to be part of the pot or dead money like it normally would be. Because when it gets to be paisting's turn we are already guaranteed as to what the next step is anyway.
Additionally, the small blind has yet to act when he opens on the button for 3x so that is a factor also. We aren't heads-up with only paisting when he does the PFR.
Since more opportunities will come combined with the SB having not folded yet, the smallish edge potential of Q5s vs. the BB automatic shove is likely a mirage and should be folded on the button.
These situations are usually evaluated as mental-exercise hypotheticals (Sklansky has looked at this stuff and discussed on here and in his more recent NL Theory book actually). Kind of fun in it's own weird way that this analysis is actually from a real situation. Haha.