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03-27-2020 , 04:29 PM

#726

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,341

According to fivethirtyeight, a panel of USA epidemiologists estimate (very loosely, for obvious reasons) that only 9% of cases in America have been confirmed by testing.

Quote

03-27-2020 , 04:31 PM

#727

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

Quote:

Originally Posted by matzah_ball

Needless to say, if there’s a large wave of defaults among the major corporations that will be the recipient of the loans, we have far bigger concerns than the increase in the national debt.

Many of the loans in the $2.2 trillion package will be completely forgiven as long as the companies do not layoff employees. Thus, they are not really loans as you and I normally think of loans.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

I'm assuming you had 100K+++ cases all along, it's just that you finally got around to measuring and confirming that many?

Gnotexactlysurewhatthestatsmean,tbhG

We have 100k confirmed cases. A week ago we had under 20k. Two weeks ago we had under 2k. Yes, we are testing more now but it is also spreading quickly.

Quote

03-27-2020 , 05:03 PM

#728

nutella virus

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 3,627

Carnival, royal caribbean and norwegian cruise lines all left out of stimulus package. They're all headquartered in miami, but none are legally u.s. based to avoid higher taxes. All that tax dodging kicking them in the ass now

Quote

03-27-2020 , 05:25 PM

#729

feel wrath

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 32,219

One Indian ‘super spreader’ potentially responsible for 40k people now at risk

Quote

03-27-2020 , 06:12 PM

#730

venice10

Referee

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 26,103

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

According to fivethirtyeight, a panel of USA epidemiologists estimate (very loosely, for obvious reasons) that only 9% of cases in America have been confirmed by testing.

You understand that is good news, not bad.

Quote

03-27-2020 , 06:51 PM

#731

Mr Spyutastic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 15,531

Quote:

Originally Posted by venice10

You understand that is good news, not bad.

Not entirely. Maybe from a CFR standpoint yeah I get it, but from a containment/control perspective it's pretty troubling.

Like the numbers of people requiring hospitalization is real. The fact that some hospitals are being overrun is real regardless of the fact that the CFR may be quite lower than was initially estimated. If that is even in fact the case.

Quote

03-27-2020 , 09:36 PM

#732

OvertlySexual

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,235

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dream Crusher

Ok, and when they don't?

That's why they charge interest. To cover the cost of risk, no?

Quote

03-27-2020 , 09:37 PM

#733

OvertlySexual

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,235

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyBuz

And how are they paying back the principal? With more debt, because we're running trillion dollar annual deficits.

The more debt you issue the higher your default risk becomes. The higher your default risk the higher your funding cost. The higher your funding cost the higher your interest payments. The higher your interest payments the less tax revenue you have to fund necessary spending. The less tax revenue you have (which will soon be 0 as net interest payments will eclipse tax revenue) the more debt you issue to cover the shortfall.

This is how it ends for the USD.

I thought the tax cuts were supposed to turbo-charge the economy and pay for themselves. Are you saying that didn't happen?

Quote

03-27-2020 , 09:39 PM

#734

OvertlySexual

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,235

Quote:

Originally Posted by Axel Foley

100k CONFIRMED cases.

From what I hear, they tend to test a lot more in rich areas than poor areas. Who knows where some of the highest densities outside NYC are right now.

Did you know that Burundi is the only African country that doesn't have any COVID cases? It's true.

When the Burundi health minister was asked what's the secret, he replied: "It's simple. We don't have any test kits".

True story.

Quote

03-27-2020 , 09:58 PM

#735

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

Quote:

Originally Posted by OvertlySexual

That's why they charge interest. To cover the cost of risk, no?

No, that's what a business would do. This is the government. Many of the loans are 2 to 4% with the possibility of loan forgiveness. Also, I'm not sure how much of the $2.2 trillion is loans vs grants. As an example, half of what the Airlines are receiving is in the form of grants, not loans.

Quote

03-27-2020 , 10:26 PM

#736

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,341

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

According to fivethirtyeight, a panel of USA epidemiologists estimate (very loosely, for obvious reasons) that only 9% of cases in America have been confirmed by testing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by venice10

You understand that is good news, not bad.

If it is accurate, it is good news, as the mortality rate is therefore much lower than currently believed. On the other hands, one, it's a guess; and two, it also means that there are even more unknowing folks out there spreading it than generally believed.

Over all, I think it is more good news than bad, but sweet baby Jesus on a pogo-stick do we need more accurate information to inform our response, and we just don't have it.

Quote

03-28-2020 , 12:35 AM

#737

rickroll

Questionable Taste

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 28,436

Quote:

Originally Posted by reaper6788

You're welcome.

Frankly it's not worth the time to actually get into it. The stuff you're spewing might as well be take your pick flat earth, racial IQ, antivax, 300 mpg engine, anti evolution nonsense. Entering into the debate gives an illusion of credibility that none of that stuff deserves. The real debates going on are so far beyond.

There's tons of real macro financial econ knowledge out there for people to read and learn so I just write this for the sake of whatever small nudge it will give someone else to go read real research or watch open lectures from major universities.

thanks reap +1

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03-28-2020 , 12:47 AM

#738

Mr Spyutastic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 15,531

Quote

03-28-2020 , 12:58 AM

#739

rickroll

Questionable Taste

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 28,436

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic

just send that whiner some johnnybuz charts and a plate of cheese

Quote

03-28-2020 , 02:51 AM

#740

Horist

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 9

I googled “can i get tested to see if i had the coronavirus” as i maybe had it back in jan/feb. no help

Quote

03-28-2020 , 06:15 AM

#741

Axel Foley

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 1,493

Quote

03-28-2020 , 08:23 AM

#742

venice10

Referee

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 26,103

On positive corona news, I just re-signed my lease for the apartment. Rents had been going up about 5% a year in my area. Landlord kept the rent flat this year.

Quote

03-28-2020 , 11:32 AM

#743

reaper6788

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,860

Quote:

Originally Posted by venice10

On positive corona news, I just re-signed my lease for the apartment. Rents had been going up about 5% a year in my area. Landlord kept the rent flat this year.

Recessions are great when you have cash and don't lose your job. Refinance your debt. Buy assets and property at reduced prices.

I don't have any cash on me because I am aggressively paying down student loans. So I'm thankful every day I still have my job.

Quote

03-28-2020 , 01:26 PM

#744

sixsevenoff

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 5,411

Quote:

Originally Posted by Horist

I googled “can i get tested to see if i had the coronavirus” as i maybe had it back in jan/feb. no help

I'm highly suspicious that I had it back in January and wrote it off as the flu

Quote

03-28-2020 , 06:01 PM

#745

DeadMoneyWalking

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 32,628

Quote:

Originally Posted by reaper6788

So far our 'bailout' has only been discussed in terms of a forebearance, the right to skip a payment that we wouldn't have made anyway.

Quote

03-28-2020 , 06:30 PM

#746

johnnyBuz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,699

thank goodness we have elected officials leading the way. gets good 90 seconds in.

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03-28-2020 , 07:34 PM

#747

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

LoL

Quote

03-28-2020 , 11:03 PM

#748

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

http://https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/489996-rhode-island-police-national-guard-begin-stopping-cars-with-ny-plates#

We should literally be up in arms over this **** but I guess everyone is okay with anything in the name of “safety.”