Quote:
Originally Posted by SABR42
Run some calcs of AA vs 8 random hands on various boards and let me know how you're doing. People aren't likely going to shove top pair 9-ways either.
T98 monotone without the flush draw:
7%
T98tt:
14%
K72 monotone without the draw:
17%
K72 monotone with the draw:
53%
TT9r:
30%
K72r:
37%
JhTh6d:
28%
As you can see AA is a huge favorite on disconnected non-mono flops. Even on mono flops or 3-straights it's a small favorite. Only on extremely rare monotone connected flops is it a sizeable dog. AA is a monster in a bomb pot and I'd be thrilled to swap it from all my normal hands with 66 I get in bomb pots for the rest of my life.
Bomb pots are bigger on average for obvious reasons. I want to play a big pre-flop pot with a hand that is almost always strong on the flop.
As for EV of dark shoving, I'm not gonna do an exact calculation but I'll do some ugly back of the envelope math for some general flop categories. I sacrificed accuracy for speed in several ways so if you think I overlooked something I was likely actually ignoring it, or I just made a mistake rushing. This didn't take me long and I don't want to spend any more time on it because it's not very useful.
Paired (TT9r)
.162 frequency, Lose to 98/1081, 8.6% equity when called, -.809 EV SPR 3 (in fractions of initial pot size)
Mono (K72):
.045 frequency, Lose to 81, 24.6% equity, -.056 EV
Connected (T98r):
.026 frequency, Lose to 84, 12.4% equity, -.492 EV
1-gap (T97r):
.064 frequency, Lose to 68, 13.8% equity, -.230 EV
2-gap (T96r):
.077 frequency, Lose to 52, 16.3% equity, .068 EV
Disconnected (K72r):
.54 frequency, Lose to 36, 21.3% equity, .404 EV
A-high (A72r):
.118 frequency, Lose to 0, 1 EV
Frequencies add to 1.032 so I probably double counted some flops, although I tried not to.
EV estimate of dark shoving SPR 3: .069 antes
EV estimate of dark shoving SPR 5: -.332 antes
Face up dark shoving SPR 5 gets destroyed. Face up dark shoving SPR 3 is idiotic but wins money.