yeah the range is terrible imo, too many T8os and not enough Q8s, K8s, T9os etc..

closer?

(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 55.5% 55.5% 0.00% [QsQc]
Player 2: 44.5% 44.5% 0.00% {TT-99, JdJc, A8s, AdTd-Ad9d, Ad6d-Ad4d,
Ad2d, K8s, KdJd-KdTd, J8s, T8s+, 98s, 96s, 86s, 65s, A8o, T9o, 98o,
87o, 65o}

Board: [8d 7h 3d 8h ?]

yes, I feel that is a much better tange.

Regarding the connectors in that range..how about all combos of suited ones & 1/2ish of non suited? I don't think he's raising us w/every combo of 56o for example.

I do feel that some players would raise a super high % of times on this turn (I know I would) with both draws and trips, and even some weak showdowns that raise to check back rivers. As a result I really hate betting turn with intentions to fold; I would take a check line otherwise, possibly overbetting rivers if checked through.

If I have enough reads to know turn is an easy bet/fold I wouldn't think twice, but I'm obviously I'm assuming we're against someone where this does not apply, in which case I either bet/call, or c/c.

Come to think of it, not sure why V would call flop and raise turn with TT or 99. He should want to charge the draws otf with TT or 99 just as much or more than he would want to charge the draws ott. Call flop, raise turn looks like, not TT or 99 to me. Do I have this wrong?

Agreed re draws and trips ott, but what about flop? Would you call flop with draws? And what about TT, 99?

I think TAG villain would bet draws often. From the ranging above itt, we are getting a lot of our EV from TT, 99 and draws, but I don't think that is realistic.

ib4, flip flop. Yes, changed my mind, don't think TT, 99 are in the range, b/c I think V raises flop with them.

Yeah I flat flop with almost my entire range IP. I honestly don't really see the need with this SPR to raise the flop ever. I think it's best for my range.

Now if I know villain never ever folds an overpair no matter what, and I think his betting range is only strong hands (ie. no point trapping) then I do an exploitative raise, but in general my default is to flat everything on the flop.

I definitely think villain raising turn with TT and 99 is unlikely but I think if he's really smart he could do that for free showdown quite often, and again that's also something I would consider.

I think villain will NOT raise TT and 99 on flop, I don't know why you think they would. If I were in their shoes I just call 3 streets with TT and 99. Raising is definitely overplaying, unless the plan is to raise to check back one street.

I would not expect a villain to raise flop with 99/1010 in this game. OTT maybe it makes up a very small portion of his range.

Yes. I guess if I was V with TT I would raise flop to check turn.

Again I just don't play a high aggression game on flops much, but I do conceive of a turn raise to check river line that's possibly somewhat exploitable but never really going to be exploited in practice. I think the flop is not a good spot to raise because you're getting 3bet by enough combo draws on flops whereas the turn really handcuffs them, so if I wanted to choose a spot to raise my entire range, it'd be the turn and not the flop.

Hero calls.

River(63.5BB) K

Hero?

Wow, I consider everything, c/c, c/f, c/r, or block betting (very small).

I probably begin with a check. It depends a lot on what his level is; on this river some people might not "thin value bet" trips expecting many folds.

I wonder if you can hollywood being unhappy with the river, and when he bets, you jam on him. Might be a good play not that I'd ever do it.

I like check and see what he does. A small bet, 20BB or less, I call expecting to pay him off. Larger bets I'm folding unless it looks bluffy for some reason. I didn't think he was bluffing on turn so I'm not inclined to try and pick off a bluff here. It is possible though, and I would call some of the time if his bet or actions felt off here.

I think we are well ahead of his total range on the turn, but I think we are behind the portion of that range that raises. The 8X hands are the most likely raises, flush draws and over pairs that wanted to get aggressive are more likely to do it on flop. The bluffs here are actually likely a 7X hand that called flop, knows it is way behind on turn but thinks a bluff might take down pot because he can represent an 8X.

for only another 2BB OTB I wouldn't discount it

If you are going to give him credit for being good/aggro enough to bluff at the 8 OTT, then you have to check/call a river bet. His range is exactly the same as OTT and unless he has exactly A K, nothing has changed.

I hate saying "if you called turn you have to call river" because I think people overuse that idea as an excuse to do stupid things sometimes. That being said, I think it applies here.

FWIW, I would have folded turn until I had more concrete info that he was good enough to bluff that turn.

Ya this.

Can't argue with you about folding turn. I def considered it.

Re call turn/fold river - I think it's a play that is reasonable against a large part of the player pool that only bets nuttish or air (and mostly nuts) with big bets OTR.

If you are bet/calling the turn then ch/folding this river you are lighting money on fire.

Ch/call if I am comfortable bet/calling the turn but I only like doing this if he has a very high bluff frequency on both streets. I'm probably calling a bigger bet as well.

Kind of hate a river chr, I mean it looks so strong (as all river chr's do) but I don't think it is a very good technical bluff other than throwing money at the pot expecting him to fold

11t forgot part one of Sol's mantra: Put money into the pot until they fold.

TAKE IT TO THE OCEAN BABY

I mean river check raises can work in all sorts of weird spots but good luck getting T8s to fold this river.

This individual piece of logic is true. However, most players don't bluff raise turn either and any player that will bluff raise turn will surely barrel river when checked to as well.

Continuity of thought must be considered when planning out the hand street by street. In this case, what was the reason you called in the turn? Because whatever that reasoning was still applies to this "brick" river. For this reason, I think there were two reasonable lines to be taken in this hand - call turn and check/call brick river OR fold turn.

yeah like I would need a very very legit read to be willing to call the turn then ch/f the river.

Again though, the problem here is that we bet the turn without having our decision really weighted towards bet/folding or bet/calling which makes it a clear check with our SDV.

I'm leaning toward c/c here too, but there is a paradoxical problem with c/c here IF villain was paying attention to our actions with an overpair mentioned in the history (in that he's seen us call down, so shouldn't really be betting with worse). Maybe I've got this wrong. Anybody block betting (Sol mentioned it among all options, nobody advocating it yet)?

I like c/f, because I don't think turn action was based on very many draws or value hands we beat. So that assumes I was right ott.

But if I assume I was wrong ott, then I like c/c otr. It is a combination of bluff catching and ok with show down best hand.