The board is as wet as a wh0re this time unlike previously though. I'd advocate x/c as there are less hearts in his range than diamonds where he still might barrel this river because our hand has become even more face up with the line we have taken OTT. He will defs bet all 8's here I don't see him checking back any of his range ever.

11t and Tao I don't disagree with you guys in this spot necessarily. I just want to point out that I actually think you can c/c turn and c/f river against certain players safely. It's the type of player that turns 99/1010 into a bluff without knowing on this turn. Then doesn't bluff river, just checks back praying that they're good. Other players understand that they need to semi bluff sometimes if they're going to call pf with a weak hand. But they don't bluff river because they don't see their opponents fold strong hands enough.

I could be wrong I'm sure. And I'm not sure this is the right spot for it.

I never considered leading. Is there anyone who wants to discuss leading for w/e reason, or should I move on?

If we lead, we lose the ability to get value from his bluffs.

Check/raising makes more sense than leading, IMO. It would be such a sick move, since a river check/raise might get villain off everything except for full houses (including 8x).

But I don't really feel comfortable advocating that sort of sick crazy stuff. Interesting proposition, though.

I like to consider the play if the stacks are right after they bet. (C/jam)

It's all pretty tough readless.

No need to ever play a hand like this readless.

If you was going to c/r it should be ott.

Just look at your overall line. You raise pre from ep, bet flop, bet turn, got raised, called and now you want to c/r river. Line sounds terrible vs an unknown. You showed 3 streets of aggression, now want to flat a turn raise and c/r river. Sounds like bad planning. Line is laughable nothing sexy at all.

move on. Leading seems bad because it folds out all his crap that missed and gets us shoved on my his monsters. Plus, it denies him the opportunity to bluff.

If the river was a Q, i'd lead small to induce.

Hero checks after thinking for ~10 sec, V thinks for ~15 sec. He looks fairly calm as if he's just thinking the spot through. After 15 sec, he bets 44BB.

As Hero tanks, Villain doesn't make eye contact with Hero. Just sits there looking fairly calm and staring at the felt.

Hero?

Catching on a little late, but I fold to the turn raise and I am definitely folding on this river.

c/r turn is dumb, he won't fold 8x, but on river he may.

Leading river can be okay as a block bet. Believe it or not block bets CAN be good in spots like this.

I said before c/c turn c/f some rivers can be viable.

As played if I b/c turn I probably c/c river.

How long did Hero (you) take to call T raise?

I know in my gut I'm calling this because all miscellaneous events add up to I'm back and forth with myself almost equally between him overvaluing his hand/underrating ours so we beat him versus he's got the 8x and playing straight up. And I'm a calling station when in serious doubt.

Question is, what does he put you on if he was paying attention to your passive overpair hand previously and now you've called his c/r on the T? This hand is sticking in my mind:

Flop is K53ss, SB checks, V bets 2/3 pot and gets called by SB and one of the limp/callers. Turn is a 9os, and V shoves for ~2/3psb, gets called and wins at showdown with KQo.

Seems to me he could be doing this 44BB R bet with enough hands we beat; we've differently repped our hand, meaning not necessarily weakly I guess, but who's playing QQ p/f like this and would the Villian ever put us on that - don't think so. Also never puts us on an 8, so perceives a weak point at least.

I'm ready to see 8x here but also A7; and 99 thru JJ easy as well as other maybe less likely hands like 910 where he thinks we'll fold to his agg.

I meh-call this

The question I have is what circumstances make b/c turn c/f river a viable line? OTR our hand has improved against his perceived range, right? How does that factor in?

Apologies in advance for being a liven00b and looking at tells possibly to much...but, with the snap call on the flop, then a turbo raise on a great bluff card, I think he's getting creative at least ~29% of the time we need for this call to be good here.

We know he's not nitty based on the KQ showdown.

I call. His range is polarized. If we were stationing the turn w/AK, he's checking back his 99-TT. He has busted draws enough for this to show a profit, imo. But I'm a certified payoff wizard. ;-)

Let me know if you guys want to discuss anything else in this thread. Otherwise I guess I'll post results soon. Thanks for joining in! Y'all rule

Here's a question ticketmaster: If you were villain (seeing only the AA showdown), what types of hands would you take this line with?

Well Villain could think that if I play trappy with strong hands I have too many bluffs. In that case he would want to bluff raise very weak hands, and just flat strong hands to let me continue to spew off.

I usually don't expect ppl to think like that after seeing one showdown (and I don't think anyone can or should adjust to someones play after seeing just one showdown).

OTOH, he saw me call down 3 big bets without thinking too hard about it with a one pair hand. If that's the part that registered with him the most, you would think that he would not expect me to fold after I call turn, and would have alot of value bets.

The thing that sucks is that my hand is pretty much face up once I call turn.

^^^This.

He can probably beat AA. Fold.

Resuts?

Results:

Heh one of my favorite types of bluffs tbqh. Only bluff I like more is sitting on a straight draw and raising when the flush comes.

I think the turn is fairly close. A lot of players simply don't have the creativity required to bluff their draw when the top card pairs. It's not a clear fold. It's not a clear call.

However, once you call the turn, you can't fold the river unless a diamond hits. Otherwise your turn play is always wrong.

So you don't subscribe to the exploitative theory with certain players that you call turn and even if nothing changes OTR you can safely fold when they bomb?

Not saying that this was the right spot for it given that I'm basically readless in the hand. But I really think there's a place for this in live poker.

Also, I agree the turn is a close call/fold. Could go either way.

Certain players sure, but not players creative enough to raise this specific turn.

Fair enough. Yea I mean I think I agree with pretty much everyone saying call turn/fold river here is a mistake. BTW, this hand was 5/10/20 at the bike. I think it's hard to expect someone who bought in 1k at an uncapped game to be capable of bluffing huge on the river. And $875 is a pretty big bet for an unknown usually. Meh, I got outplayed for sure on this one.