Hand is standard up to turn. Leading is definitely an option. I would want to lead more if the 3rd player was in between us and flop better. This way we “sandwhich” money between us and the aggressor.
As it stands, the way to “sandwhich” money is by checking and letting aggressor bet and button having the option to continue. When we check it is always to check raise, and the raise should be large because of effective stacks.
Checking otr is an option. Not bc we fear flush but bc it’s hard for him to have strong value here that calls another bet, and he does have some QT type stuff.
Most of the time I bet though and choose a similar sizing for the reasons you stated. I would fold to the raise assuming he had A
x
almost always.
Rest assured, he was only bluffing because he felt entitled to the pot. People do this a lot, it is a kind of spaz. Meaning, if he just had A
Q
here, he would not have shoved even though it is effectively the same play. It’s because he had AA and felt entitled to the pot. It had little to do with the
blocker. Trust me. They are too scared to bluff under normal circumstances. But entitlement is the worst kind of tilt, and makes people do crazy things.
This is important bc it is easy to convince ourselves that villains are capable of river raise bluffs when we see dumb hands like this. But 98% of the time they just have it.