(Makes a huge difference)

Lol. Ok.

Who the **** is Doug Polk? And why should I care about his ranges?

This villain is not a nit. We raised pre, made the standard c-bet. In my experience, good ABC players raise c-bets with TPTK and a gut shot. AQ should be in his range here. I'd range villain here as AQ, AKo, QQ, JJ. (I have AA KK and AKs as his 3-bet range. I don't think he calls pre with QJ or 98s) I wouldn't consider any of those bluff on the flop. Villains raise offers us 2-1 on our money and is not big compared to his stack. We have plenty of equity to call the flop.
Since we just called so there is no reason for villain to think we have a made hand. Our range should look like AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AQ, KQ, KJs, QJs, JTs. The Q helps AQ. He now beats AA and KK. QQ isn't possible any more, KQ and KJ have lost outs since he fill up with a river ace now. AQ would likely bet this turn. The Q only moves 7 combos ahead of AK so that hand could reasonable bet again too. Of course JJ and QQ bet also.
Villain has done a fine job of betting without the nuts on at least street already. There is no reason to think he shuts down with a blank on the river.

Hero calls the turn bet and we see a river.

($1,060) 10JQQ7

Hero?

Bet / call $5



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You might have had a profitable flop call with smaller sizings, for example.

Hahaha.

Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe idgaf and maybe scrutinizing over a $40 Bet or a $50 Bet is ******ed.

A blank. I check with the intent to call any bet. Villain may check it back but if he thought he was ahead the last two bets this card shouldn't change that.

Flop your bet is too big. You're narrowing his range a lot with a near PSB bet, and you'd pretty much never bet this large with a medium SDV hand or bluff. Would just go for $40, but it's not really that big of a deal.

Flop call and turn call are pretty standard.

As for the river, it helps if you give us any reads on his 3-betting tendencies. If he always 3-bets AK, I think you have to find an exploitable fold on this river. You only beat 98s if he always 3-bets AK, and even then I don't think a TAG ABC guy is going to rip in his stack with the dummy straight this deep. If he doesn't 3-bet AK, even at some frequency, this river is a call but an annoying one.

It's not my flop bet that narrows his range. It's his flop raise that narrows his range and that's not a bad thing. It's a good thing. I've given those reads like a dozen times itt. Not doing it again sorry

Check folding river to any meaningful sizing.

I'm not saying in this particular hand, but in general. I never disagreed that his flop raise doesnt narrow his range. It seems like we're looking at two different posts here or something.

We bet flop for 60% vs full-pot (or almost full-pot). You seriously think his continuing range is exactly the same in both scenarios?

It's also just a bad sizing to use in general since you'd never take this sizing with some marginal holding or bluff on this exact board texture, and any decent player can find a hero-fold with medium-strength hands.

[. ] gets it


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I was going to ask you to do the homework yourself but your obstinate attitude indicates you have zero concern with regards to bet sizing so I'll do the legwork for you. For the purposes of this exercise I will use my previous bet sizing suggestions as well as your assumption that villain has AK here and raises your flop bet at 4x sizing.

1. @ $30 pre -> 50/60 flop bet size (your actual sizing), you need to make back ...
- (60 + 50 + 200) / 150 = 2.07
- (7/47) = 0.1489; 1/(0.1489) = 6.7
- 1 in 6.7 = 5.7:1; [(5.7 - 2.07) * 150] = $545 implied odds for $0EV

2. @ $20 pre -> 25/40 flop bet size you need to make back...
- ([40 + 25 + 100]) / 75 = 2.2
- (7/47) = 0.1489; 1/(0.1489) = 6.7
- 1 in 6.7 = 5.7:1; [(5.7 - 2.2) * 75] = $262 implied odds for $0EV

3. @ $20 pre -> 30/40 flop bet size you need to make back...
- ([40 + 30 + 120]) / 90 = 2.1
- (7/47) = 0.1489; 1/(0.1489) = 6.7
- 1 in 6.7 = 5.7:1; [(5.7 - 2.1) * 90] = $324 implied odds for $0EV

4. @ $25 pre -> 30/50 flop bet size you need to make back...
- ([50 + 30 + 120]) / 90 = 2.2
- (7/47) = 0.1489; 1/(0.1489) = 6.7
- 1 in 6.7 = 5.7:1; [(5.7 - 2.2) * 90] = $315 implied odds for $0EV

5. @ $25 pre -> 35/50 flop bet size you need to make back...
- ([50 + 30 + 140]) / 105 = 2.1
- (7/47) = 0.1489; 1/(0.1489) = 6.7
- 1 in 6.7 = 5.7:1; [(5.7 - 2.1) * 105] = $378 implied odds for $0EV

Math is math. It's fairly obvious that your poor bet sizing makes it nearly impossible to turn this hand into a +EV expectation vs. AK. This is ignoring the numerous RIO situations that will come up when we attempt to get stacks in on the river. The absolute best case scenario here is you x/c $300 on the turn and b/f $250+ on the river and villain feels obligated to call you with AK which nets you near 0EV (or the same expectation as bet/folding flop).

Jbuzz going out with a bang before his self ban


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't like check/call on river. Lets V play perfectly. check his straights and trips, bet his full houses. I could get behind any one of: bet/fold $300, shove (if you think he makes a crying call with his straights), or check/fold.

I think V is checking back 89s, K9s, AQ, KQ, and AK on the river here, but may make a crying call for a 1/3 pot bet with those hands. I doubt he's shoving over us with anything less than a boat (which all beat us)

Okay. That all makes sense. Thanks mang

You're officially uninvited to the boozed up, coked up, wild donkey, 5/5 topless stripper dealers game.

Thanks man. Will definitely start thinking more before I bet.

Sorry dude drunk post. I just think about bet sizing a lot.

All good. I post here to learn and help others learn. I appreciate the effort. I was drunk when I was chirping sailboats. Sorry sailboats.

Since all of us have heard/seen/written "fold pre", just wanna say... Proper sizing is more important than "fold pre" IMO (for most of the "fold pre" advice here in LLSNL - so long as you aren't so terrible that calling pre is worse than throwing away the money outright)... As long as LLSNL berates players for completing their SB or calling a 3x in their BB or whatever somewhat marginally, there should be just as much or more emphasis on sizing as this is a big part of what will allow you to play more marginal hands profitably, and a huge part of increasing your overall winrate.

That being said, I don't really agree with JBuzz's analysis/way of looking at this. There are so many other factors that go into sizing than e.g. getting proper IO on hitting a boat when we're raised by the nuts.... It's also about keeping the correct hands in with overall bad odds, making it so that Villain's are forced into choices that maximally define their range/give information to hero, being capable of leveraging stacks at some point in the hand, and simply getting as much value as we think is possible... I do agree, though, that $50 is too much on this flop (and I would've preferred a chk/call).

P0, the point wasn't really to figure out how to break even when up against AK, rather to show that larger sizings make it harder to play profitably when behind, and when the IO's get big enough, the likelihood of ten's full being the best hand at showdown decreases significantly.

Implicit in all that is that smaller sizings allow us to get value from a wider portion of villain's range (which Minatorr touched on). We've got a strong hand, sure, but it's still just the 6th nuts (when villain can have all better) and will never be good if 300 BB's get in the middle.

What's wrong with making it 20 pre and welcoming others into the pot? TT doesn't play terrible as it becomes multi-way because of set odds. Am I wrong? I am either making it 20 pre, or folding, don't think I am ever limping. I simply never vary my pre raise size.