If you are sure his raising range on the flop is that tight then you can make a very tight fold. You are not ahead of much of his raising range and if your hand improves you won't be sure who improved on who.

Without more experience playing this guy deep this is hard to read. He could easily be worried even with the nuts on a board like this because of the amount of money involved. He has to figure your continuing range is tight and has a lot of sets if you call his raise.

Ya. I agree with you. Thinking again on it it wasnt a "please fold" vibe.. it was an "I'm excited but this could get ugly" vibe. Idk. His sizing was good imo and felt value-ish.

For sure.

So did you fold?

So, either we're crushed, or he has the nuts, how often do we get to say that?

Maybe we can add KQ and J10/QJ are still possible and even if he has the nuts we have a lot of equity. These spots are tough and that's why I posted this. There's been some great feedback so far. Thanks guys.

Don't think I've ever seen a PAHWM end on the flop.

GI'mguessingaJontheturnformaximumfun,gogogo!G

Instead of a PAHWM, we have a math problem. Only took 131 posts to work that out.

How much do you assume hero extracts if paint hits the turn and V holds AK?

I would guess less than he loses when behind (with a T being the exception)?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Lol

It's not a simple math problem and I've taken a lot from some of the responses itt so far.

I think we can safely assume that we'll get a 1/2 psb or 2/3 psb from someone who is decent but not good if the board pairs the turn and he does in fact have AK

Cawl now please


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Luckily we only need to make back ~$550 for the flop call to be 0EV

And from what we gain when we boat up against AK, we lose a lot back (RIO) when V has two pair/bigger set...

Yeah decent ABC players don't make massive please fold raises with medium strength hands on scary boards 300bb deep. As I said this is usually more of a nutted hand who wants to build a huge pot this deep and cut down on odds as lots of cards can be bad for him regardless of what monster he has.

Bombing a near PSB 4x with medium strength hand like JT/QT isn't something a tight ABC decent player would do, as now hero will only continue with hands that beat him. That's a bad reg move.

Sorry, on my phone at the table, but very roughly...

.85 * -150
.15 * .2 * .8 * -1420
.15 * .2 * .2 * 1580
.15 * .8 * (310 + x)

Where x is the avg amount we'll win on future streets given we hit the turn and villain has ak

So I get a 0ev if we win 960 additional on average when villain has AK and we hit the turn.

Didn't read all the details. I was expecting an ABC player to be raising a lot here. Our c-bet doesn't convey a lot of strength. I feel villain has a lot of two pair and pair/gut combos here along with with sets and straights. His raise is essentially a pot sized bet. (Would have preferred to call a $60 PSB that I think we could have anticipated.) The main problem I have here is I don't know if I want the board to pair. I think we have to call because we have too much equity to fold and need to play the next street.

Having had way longer to think about it than I would at the table I think the best play may have been to go for the check raise on the flop.

let's get a turn

As has already been pointed out, it isn't that easy. He also has JJ, some QQ's, and possibly QJs in his range. So even if we boat up, we could still be pretty much dead. We don't know if we wanna start building a big pot or not.

Meanwhile, villain has position and can pretty much play perfectly against us. If he has AK and board pairs he can pot control, if gets a bigger boat he can try and build the pot.

These are a big factor as to why I think folding is best, not to mention we're definitely behind his 4x bombing raising range here.

People adding semi bluffs have no idea what a tight ABC player is lol.

Agree on getting a turn, the flop has been talked out and its clear hero calls. Like to state I don't think calling is a huge mistake, it's close either way. I don't fault a call, and only hero knows villains true range, so if there are KQs & QT's etc in his range then it should be a call, although categorizing him as a tight ABC decent reg is wrong.

Hero calls.

($460) Turn: 10JQQ

I love this turn and I hate this turn. I would have been happier if it was a J and obviously a 10. The Q makes JJ more likely and QQ should be 3 betting pre a lot where JJ should be flatting a lot. Won't drag this out as it should be a trivial check.

Hero?

Let's actually move it along right now. Leading is terrible. Hero checks and villain bets $300.

Hero?

this is a good one.

check.

Checking the turn.

Wishing I could go back in time to check the flop if he bets the turn. Ha, this card might even be more fun than a J turn cuz now AQ/KQ can legit think they are good and be betting for value. So I guess we can't check/fold yet? And then check/fold a blank river unless it's a super small bet?

Gnotallsets/fullhousesarecreatedequalG

Check



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This is that catch 22 spot. Checking is kinda meh, because he could check back AK a reasonable amount of the time now, and we'll only get 1 bet out of him. But leading also sucks because if he has QJ/JJ he can just call and then own us for a big pot after we bet river. He basically gets to play perfect as I said.

I'd check, as I'm not 100% sure we can even get 2 big bets out of him if he has AK, but we will certainly get owned if he has a bigger boat. Leading turn definitely screams I hit my boat, nothing else in your range would do that.

This was the exact problem I was talking about.

So yeah, check, obviously calling any non insane bet.