Its not the best option. Why? All too often the flop comes in such a way that we dont make much from V, but would have made a ton more preflop---maybe even stacking him. V having AK ln a 8 9 T flop would be the prime example of this.

Note: the V will have AK almost as often as he has QQ KKand AA combined. 16/18 to be exact.

lol no

Without discounting:
4x A * 2x K = 8 combos?..
6x AA + 1x KK + 6x QQ = 13?..

When comparing total ranges yes. (I did not mention that this was not discounted, my bad) But the overall effect of the ranges are very far off IMO. MUCH higher qty. of non pairs. Not close.

Point was that he (villain) should have non pairs far more often than big pairs. Unless of course he is not as aggro or good as OP claimed.

This villain should have quite possibly 3 times (or higher) the non pairs vs the AA KK QQ. Geeez, AQ alone has 16 combos by itself. He certainly has to be wider than AQo here.

here hero has kk

Villain will have .....

AK 6
AQ 16
AJs 4
All sorts of other squeeze combos X

26+ combos

vs

QQ 6
KK 2
AA 6

14 combos


It isnt close that villain has far more non pairs than pairs. More like 50/14 if he squeezes anywhere close to what I would.

As you wish.
Continue your fun.

/derail.

Yes We need HIS best guess here. ****, Im having a bad typing day.

seriously?

not even to mention the fact that you for some reason include AQ/AJs and not JJ/TT (im not commenting on the merits of the assigned 3b range, only that when players expand their 3b range to include AQ/AJs it is very often accompanied by including JJ/TT)

also discounting and card removal/blocker effects are not the same thing. when you say "discounting", it means that you are reducing the combos of a hand in his range because of the probability that he would play those combos some other way (i.e. include 3 out of the 6 possible combos of TT because you believe there is a 50% likelihood he would 3b TT) whereas card removal/blocker effects refer to what you are discussing above

jvds hit the nail on the head. ANL's ranging of Villain's 3betting range is totally out of whack. Either it will look like AK+/QQ+ or AQ+/TT+. ANL's ranging of the guy's 3bet range as: AQ+/AJs+/QQ+ is clearly not realistic because Villains who 3bet AQ/AJs aggressively are also often 3betting JJ/TT aggressively too.

Therefore, ANL's assertion that he or any other Villain is FAR more likely to have non-pairs than pairs in a 3bet range is hogwash. In my experience, when we have KK in our hand, most 3bet ranges from Villains who don't 3bet bluff will be composed of >50% pairs and <50% non-pairs.

Sidenote: ANL, do you know how to count combinations properly? Seems like you are having a hard time counting combos correctly in your recent posts.

I'd estimate V's 3b range in this spot as AQ+, TT+ for value. I don't think he has any bluffs in this spot. His 4b flat range is non-existent.

Ignoring, for a bit, that you're trying to figure out a perfect 4! size when he has a non-existent 4! calling range...

Are you sure that a top 20% 5/10 grinder never squeezes light from the CO against your MP open and a fish's call?

this is live poker though. how many people would flat a 4bet with AA when most people only 4bet with QQ+, maybe AK and there are so many bad flops for QQ, AK, even KK???

he actually can't flat profitably without AA or Ax unless he can bluff us on a lot of boards (which likely wont work except on Axx). Think about it. He's calling $120 more pre, its a min raise but he's only getting 10:1 or so in direct odds+implied odds. you need way more than 10:1 to set mine and even more to play SCs, etc.

Now if we have a strong read that he 3bets wide, then obviously flat pre. Against a tight range though, the optimal play is to min 4bet and fold to a 5bet. Almost all players can't help but 5bet AA for obv reasons and they will flat QQ, AK. Even if we turn our hand face up, we lose the min against AA and villains can't help but call pre with QQ, JJ and maybeeee one street post. But if we flat pre, we can stacked by AA on nearly every flop and there are lots of bad flops for QQ and AK misses too often.

Clearly if he can 5bet with AK and/or QQ very often, then you 4bet and get it in. etc. but most people play way too straightforward and nitty with their 4bet/5+bet ranges and we can exploit this by clicking it back and folding to a 5bet

Im running on no sleep for 51 hours. Im not looking at this again until rested. If the combos are all off, then i apologize. My bad for answering while exhausted.

+1

When Olaff said this guy is rarely 3 betting light and his range is AQ+,TT+ I 4 bet this all day.


He is just never 5 betting without AA IMO and I doubt he is 3 bet folding AK, QQ. He will at least flat them.

Olaf never said he doesn't three bet light. He said he is top 20% of
Grinders. I dunno why this is such a debate. He has way more combos of hands than he does aces. 4 bet folds all those value hands plus his air, if he flats 4 bet with aces good for him. Point is more often we get more value from everything else than we do clicking it back and folding to 5 bet

Overall, we're a 2:1 favorite in the hand. Given villain's range, we're only a 46/54 underdog on the flop with an ace on it. Everything else we remain a 2:1 favorite. Unless he's timid, he's going to cbet his entire range on the flop if there is an ace on the board.

Therefore, the optimal EV play is to flat, not 4bet. That said, it is much easier to play this hand by 4betting because he'll fold everything but AA which he'll shove and hero can fold. The answer to the question is zero.

Sleep, ahhh thats better. I feel pretty good right now.

Anyhow, Im clicking this back preflop.

For one easy example, the villain rarely folds for a tiny 4 bet once he has 3 bet and I stack AK VERY often here where if I let him see the flop he wont stackoff with a wiffed AK.

You're stacking AK preflop or post flop?

Ill assume preflop since post flop is hoping for a case K or monkey shove low board.

I like this if we were HU, and because OP said 3b/f is possible (actually, when he decided to use the word, "absolutely", it makes me think his 3b-light frequency is higher then normal).

Since we have a 3rd player in between, I will want to know if this guy will spazz out and back-4b for us if we just call.

But w/o any reads on MP2, or some specific strength tell on V, I think we're due for a slightly larger then click-back 4b here.

Right now, the pot is $240, and with H's call, it would be $360, which makes the flop SPR 3:1. Min click back would be $280, but I think that leaves too much in stacks OTF.

I probably pot it, $360. It makes the pot $600, with $320 to call for MP2 (and I doubt he continues), but it makes it just $200 to call for V and getting 3:1 he should be calling with his entire range.

This also commits us, so we're calling the 4b. We're in OTF no matter what.

I'm reading in the question that the other player is a non-factor in this hand, since there are no reads given at all on him.

@ANL: The OP's case is that the villain has no 4 bet calling range. He's also a tight "grinder." A grinder isn't doing flips for stacks with AK against a rather unimaginative villain. If he's a top 20% player at 5/10, he'll know the OP has no air in his 4bet. QQ and AK are the very bottom of his 4 bet range. And by bottom, I mean he'll be a bit surprised if he sees it.

Why would you do that to yourself bro?

P.S. Hey man, thank you for all your constructive and positive help over such a long period of time!

At all? Maybe you should reread the reads then. 3d player is a loose passive fish. I think that's a read. Are you deliberately trying to be mean to me?

I estimate V's range to be AQ+ and TT+. He will shove AA and very possibly QQ and AK. He'll fold the rest. That's my estimate. I gotta go now but I'll do the combos later and see what % of range our 4b will fold out.

BTW I'm very surprised by a couple people saying fold to 5b.

What's your estimate of his 5! range?