Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Overall, we're a 2:1 favorite in the hand. Given villain's range, we're only a 46/54 underdog on the flop with an ace on it. Everything else we remain a 2:1 favorite. Unless he's timid, he's going to cbet his entire range on the flop if there is an ace on the board.
Therefore, the optimal EV play is to flat, not 4bet. That said, it is much easier to play this hand by 4betting because he'll fold everything but AA which he'll shove and hero can fold. The answer to the question is zero.
I like this if we were HU, and because OP said 3b/f is possible (actually, when he decided to use the word, "absolutely", it makes me think his 3b-light frequency is higher then normal).
Since we have a 3rd player in between, I will want to know if this guy will spazz out and back-4b for us if we just call.
But w/o any reads on MP2, or some specific strength tell on V, I think we're due for a slightly larger then click-back 4b here.
Right now, the pot is $240, and with H's call, it would be $360, which makes the flop SPR 3:1. Min click back would be $280, but I think that leaves too much in stacks OTF.
I probably pot it, $360. It makes the pot $600, with $320 to call for MP2 (and I doubt he continues), but it makes it just $200 to call for V and getting 3:1 he should be calling with his entire range.
This also commits us, so we're calling the 4b. We're in OTF no matter what.