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05-19-2022 , 08:19 AM
So Maryanne could win .... fair play to her. IMO this isn't a case of her intentionally lying low (or going "Under the Radar" and then making a move, her position was actually legitimately shaky for most of the game. More and more we're seeing these strategists who peak too early fall sooner and then somebody swoops in at the end and happens to be the person making a pivotal strategic decisions down the stretch. I don't think she's a good player, she's clearly smart and stuff but socially I don't think she's great, but I respect that she had the cajones to make the move. She's a good survivor character and a good casting decision, usually the person in her archetype isn't a gamer at all but Maryanne has game.

Omar was by far the best player this season. Mike for me is drifting into Coach in South Pacific territory. You can make a case that he's had a very impressive social game to just advance his strategic position and be afforded so many options, but I think he's lacking the humility and self-awareness to own it. Overall very ho-hum season.
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05-19-2022 , 08:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AussieJack
So it’s Lindsay or Jonathan going next week
Or both. Next week's the finale.
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05-19-2022 , 09:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Symbioticse
So Maryanne could win .... fair play to her. IMO this isn't a case of her intentionally lying low (or going "Under the Radar" and then making a move, her position was actually legitimately shaky for most of the game. More and more we're seeing these strategists who peak too early fall sooner and then somebody swoops in at the end and happens to be the person making a pivotal strategic decisions down the stretch. I don't think she's a good player, she's clearly smart and stuff but socially I don't think she's great, but I respect that she had the cajones to make the move. She's a good survivor character and a good casting decision, usually the person in her archetype isn't a gamer at all but Maryanne has game.

Omar was by far the best player this season. Mike for me is drifting into Coach in South Pacific territory. You can make a case that he's had a very impressive social game to just advance his strategic position and be afforded so many options, but I think he's lacking the humility and self-awareness to own it. Overall very ho-hum season.
Maybe it just who I am but I feel the Omar's and Ricards of this world are really overrated by the fanbase as players

To me Survivor is a very simple game. There are three facets;

-Physical
-Social
-Strategic

You need to be strong enough in all three to keep yourself safe/win at the end but not 'too strong' that you are then unable to manage your threat level and become a target.

Taking Omar for example

-Physical -Lacking which will always make him an early boot target on any random season along with limitting his ability to 'win out' at the end
-Social - Mostly stable and above average
-Strategic - Very strategic but was unable to manage his strategic threat level and thus became the biggest target on the board at the final 6
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05-19-2022 , 10:05 AM
I was 90% sure Maryann was going to win if she got to FTC and now it's like 98%. People forget that besides sliding under the radar, this is literally the only thing she's done all game. Zero threat at challenges and has been no influence on any vote until this episode (that we've seen anyway).

Romeo is a total non-entity and if it were me I'd want Mike and Romeo next to me. Romeo has done nothing and as much as Mike has done really well socially, nobody likes him.

And hate to say it, but even if Lindsay somehow makes it to FTC, Maryann will still win.
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05-19-2022 , 11:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BringbckMichelleYi
Maybe it just who I am but I feel the Omar's and Ricards of this world are really overrated by the fanbase as players

To me Survivor is a very simple game. There are three facets;

-Physical
-Social
-Strategic

You need to be strong enough in all three to keep yourself safe/win at the end but not 'too strong' that you are then unable to manage your threat level and become a target.

Taking Omar for example

-Physical -Lacking which will always make him an early boot target on any random season along with limitting his ability to 'win out' at the end
-Social - Mostly stable and above average
-Strategic - Very strategic but was unable to manage his strategic threat level and thus became the biggest target on the board at the final 6

I'm not going to argue that Omar didn't manage his threat level properly, that seems a bit self-evident but it's a mistake many good players make. I don't view the physical game as nearly as important as the other two, for me it's almost a bad thing to be too physical. The best physical game is probably be a slight-female who is good at immunity challenges but clearly doesn't stick out as a threat. I don't believe he'd be an obvious boot due to challenge weakness, we saw on his tribe that he was the key player.

I agree that Omar didn't play it tactically perfectly, but he was the one proactively driving most of the votes, he has a social talent for manipulation and was savvy strategically particularly at the start to put himself in a position where he had most of the leverage. He got outlasted by Romeo (who he should have booted, I'll grant) - who is awful, Maryanne who despite being a competitor to win, clearly is also worse socially and just happened to be in this position, Jonathan who really relied on Omar earlier and doesn't have a strong social or tactical game.
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05-19-2022 , 11:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ponyboy
I was 90% sure Maryann was going to win if she got to FTC and now it's like 98%. People forget that besides sliding under the radar, this is literally the only thing she's done all game. Zero threat at challenges and has been no influence on any vote until this episode (that we've seen anyway).

Romeo is a total non-entity and if it were me I'd want Mike and Romeo next to me. Romeo has done nothing and as much as Mike has done really well socially, nobody likes him.

And hate to say it, but even if Lindsay somehow makes it to FTC, Maryann will still win.
I don't even think that she qualifies as under the radar, on her initial tribe she was the alternate - my understanding was she goes home second almost definitely if her tribe loses. Then come the merge she was clearly on the margins of the power structure and it's not like that was intentional. I think "Under the Radar" is one of the most overused phrases, I mean I'm not a huge fan of Boston Rob or think he's the best but he's clearly good at the game, and I vaguely remember the Under the radar criticism he made, it's usually just passive or inactive player or like in Maryanne's case legitimately not having the power. It's like when people characterize Michele or Fabio's wins as "Under the radar" when the majority of the people wanted them gone for the entire endgame.

So not super impressed with Maryanne, but I think she'd be a deserving winner - I'm not sure why she'd be 98% for you, presumably that's based on the edit? I think she'd be able to make a case for herself on the basis that Omar was the power player and I think I'd be happy with her winning almost against anybody based on that but I think that suggests that the competition is weak, not that she's good. If Mike can own his game than I'd be happy with him winning also.
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05-19-2022 , 11:18 AM
I like Maryanne but I don't think this one move can give her a persuasive argument that she was always shaping the game the way she wanted, but was intentionally staying out of the fray and flying under the radar. That said, she may win because of her personality and that people are willing to give her more strategic credit than she deserves because she was underestimated.

One thing she does have is that she a had a plan that needed Jonathan and Mike with her (or at least not against her plan) and she pulled it off without them.


The last 10 people are making for a good cast.

The last 4 votes each got rid of what was seen as most dangerous player who was "gettable." Lots of realigning after each tribal.
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05-19-2022 , 11:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArcticKnight
I like Maryanne but I don't think this one move can give her a persuasive argument that she was always shaping the game the way she wanted, but was intentionally staying out of the fray and flying under the radar. That said, she may win because of her personality and that people are willing to give her more strategic credit than she deserves because she was underestimated.

One thing she does have is that she a had a plan that needed Jonathan and Mike with her (or at least not against her plan) and she pulled it off without them.


The last 10 people are making for a good cast.

The last 4 votes each got rid of what was seen as most dangerous player who was "gettable." Lots of realigning after each tribal.
IMO if she can get to the end with Romeo+one of Jonathan or Mike than she can win and I'd be fine with it. Her game is not impressive at all but that's never been the idea, she just has to sit next to people who are as unimpressive as she is at the strategic and social game. Then she can say I made this Omar move, which in fairness is the most important strategic move of the season and can get the win.
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05-19-2022 , 11:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Symbioticse
So not super impressed with Maryanne, but I think she'd be a deserving winner - I'm not sure why she'd be 98% for you, presumably that's based on the edit? I think she'd be able to make a case for herself on the basis that Omar was the power player and I think I'd be happy with her winning almost against anybody based on that but I think that suggests that the competition is weak, not that she's good. If Mike can own his game than I'd be happy with him winning also.
I think that Mike and Lindsay have been much more active players with strategy and also physical gameplay. My feeling is that even if either one of them gets to FTC - and I'm assuming one of them will - Maryann will still get the million and I think she's definitely not the best overall player of the group that's left. And that's a group where Romeo is involved and might as well be a shrub. She also has three automatic jury votes from Chanelle, Rocksroy and Drea. Anyone else is playing behind significantly.

My hope to win:
Lindsay - has been the best physically and strategically involved in most votes since merge.
Mike - hasn't won any physical stuff but has been included by everyone, strongest social game except for Omar.
Maryann
Jonathan
Romeo
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05-19-2022 , 11:41 AM
Omar is a good player, but not a great one. A great player would have made certain that Lindsay played her idol. There was zero reason not to.
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05-19-2022 , 12:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ponyboy
She also has three automatic jury votes from Chanelle, Rocksroy and Drea.
You sure about that? This angle is being played up way too much.

I'd put the lines like.

Vote from 1/3 -500

Vote from 2/3 -200

Vote from 3/3 +175

Rocks would be my guess of the 3, but I could also see Chanelle not voting for her either. Drea seems like a lock.
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05-19-2022 , 12:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimTimSalabim
Omar is a good player, but not a great one. A great player would have made certain that Lindsay played her idol. There was zero reason not to.
Yeah, I was actually surprised how little he fought it, at least based on the edit. It was a pretty massive mistake.
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05-19-2022 , 12:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Symbioticse
Overall very ho-hum season.
You might just be tired of the show. This has been one of the better seasons imo.
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05-19-2022 , 01:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ponyboy
I think that Mike and Lindsay have been much more active players with strategy and also physical gameplay. My feeling is that even if either one of them gets to FTC - and I'm assuming one of them will - Maryann will still get the million and I think she's definitely not the best overall player of the group that's left. And that's a group where Romeo is involved and might as well be a shrub. She also has three automatic jury votes from Chanelle, Rocksroy and Drea. Anyone else is playing behind significantly.

My hope to win:
Lindsay - has been the best physically and strategically involved in most votes since merge.
Mike - hasn't won any physical stuff but has been included by everyone, strongest social game except for Omar.
Maryann
Jonathan
Romeo
I'm not buying that she has 3 automatic votes from the 3 black players, Wendell lost black votes to Dom. Deshawn lost black votes to Erika, and you can really go on and on with it. The proportion of votes by race in the history of survivor would be interesting to look at but that hasn't really happened in the past afaik. I know Clay lost votes for being a racist, but that was against Brian. I also remember Sierra from Tocantins in an interview literally said that because Stephen was a Jew he wouldn't get the money. So I guess that happens, but I doubt it.

Last season Erika got hit for winning because she was a woman, but she almost objectively had more agency than the men she was sitting beside and the argument for her at least as far as I could tell was legitimately better, leaving gender aside.

Here I'd probably agree that Mike would be a better winner in terms of strategic agency as has Lindsay. I do think this Omar move is more important than anything Mike and Lindsay have done individually, but it's hard to deny that both of them were much more integral to the game dynamics for most of the game than Maryanne.
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05-19-2022 , 04:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Symbioticse
I'm not buying that she has 3 automatic votes from the 3 black players, Wendell lost black votes to Dom. Deshawn lost black votes to Erika, and you can really go on and on with it. The proportion of votes by race in the history of survivor would be interesting to look at but that hasn't really happened in the past afa.
This is a dumb argument, have you ever seen a TC where they stopped because one person couldn't vote for someone because of race? made a huge point about it and then another person of that race just gave up there II because ....... race?

Maryanne has 3 locked jury votes. If I am wrong, I will never post in this thread again. She will be the equal worst winner of survivor ever.

Overall, this season has been better then 41 though, and maaaaybe above average for entertainment

Last edited by mitsi; 05-19-2022 at 04:41 PM. Reason: Sandra obv
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05-19-2022 , 05:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mitsi
This is a dumb argument, have you ever seen a TC where they stopped because one person couldn't vote for someone because of race? made a huge point about it and then another person of that race just gave up there II because ....... race?

Maryanne has 3 locked jury votes. If I am wrong, I will never post in this thread again. She will be the equal worst winner of survivor ever.

Overall, this season has been better then 41 though, and maaaaybe above average for entertainment
I can well believe she does get the votes, but Deshawn literally lost 2 black votes last season in a season that was more woke. My opinion on the Drea thing was that she was trying to get the target off her back and using wokeness to do that, only to sort of force herself into a position where she did give up the idol. So she could get the votes, I definitely think she'd deserve to win over Romeo, maybe even Jonathan too depending on how you view the game.

As far as worst winner ever .... please Ben Driebergen being handed the 3 idols? Chris from s38 sauntering in the game having played himself out during the pre-merge for the stretch. Michele and Fabio being clueless for the entire game. Bob Crowley is probably the worst player to ever win the game. I'd almost put her game ahead of Natalie White's also, because Maryanne at least can say she did something. I'm interested to hear how you'd stack her game up against the ones I mentioned, because as I've said I'm not impressed with Maryanne's game at all, but she's at least somewhat tactical.
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05-19-2022 , 05:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimTimSalabim
As I recall the proof is:

step 1
x = .9 repeating (starting assumption)

step 2
thus 10x = 9.9 repeating (by moving the decimal point over)

step3
subtract the two and 9x= 9 thus x=1

step 4
watch mind being blown!
Another one:

1/3 = .3333333...
1/3 x 3 = 1
Therefore .33333333... x 3 = 1
.3333333... x 3 = .9999999....
So .9999999.... is the same thing as 1
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05-19-2022 , 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ponyboy
And hate to say it, but even if Lindsay somehow makes it to FTC, Maryann will still win.
You shouldn't hate to say that Maryanne would defeat the privileged white woman. That would be a great triumph worthy of much celebration!
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05-19-2022 , 06:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Down
Another one:

1/3 = .3333333...
1/3 x 3 = 1
Therefore .33333333... x 3 = 1
.3333333... x 3 = .9999999....
So .9999999.... is the same thing as 1
I don't know what all this is about but it's a pretty simple concept. When you select an item there is a 2 out of 3 chance you select DEATH. Revealing the contents of one of the other items does not change those odds whatsoever. There is still a 2 out of 3 chance that you selected DEATH.
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05-19-2022 , 06:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimTimSalabim
Omar is a good player, but not a great one. A great player would have made certain that Lindsay played her idol. There was zero reason not to.
Not confirmed but have seen rumours that the amulet idol was none transferable.

However Lindsay could have gave up the necklace and played the idol on herself. Though this is not without risk in case there was a idol nullifier in play..........which Omar confirmed in his exit press there was and he had it.
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05-19-2022 , 08:57 PM
I'm pulling for Lindsay. She's charming, smart and cute as hell.
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05-19-2022 , 09:03 PM
think editing had a great part in previous eps by making mike seem stupid. in a single ep he realized omar had to go and made maryanne think it was her idea, coming to the same conclusion as boston rob (or was it another master manipulator?) as to how manipulate people the perfect way (make them do what you want but also make them think it was their idea)
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05-19-2022 , 09:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VTChess
damn, what an impressive episode for Maryanne
It was a good episode for her, but I also feel like she wasted a lot of effort in trying to get the two meatheads on board with her plan when she didn't actually need to. She and Romeo had the votes to accomplish what she wanted to accomplish. When Mike was like, but let's just play it safe and vote out Romeo, she could easily have said, Ok, and patted him on the shoulder. Then, she and Romeo vote out Omar as planned.

That said, if Lindsay thought it was best for her game to keep Omar and she didn't play her idol for him, she's pretty stupid.

Do we know what happens to Maryanne's extra vote on the revote if Lindsay plays her idol for Omar and it's two votes Romeo and two votes Hercules? Is the extra vote live on the revote?
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05-19-2022 , 09:35 PM
Lolmar.

Havent read comments yet, but Maryanne beasted that.

Also, if the thought that playing idol would recirculate it, one should also assume an idol expiring also results in recirculation.
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05-19-2022 , 09:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
This was pretty obvious to everyone that doesn't have racism in their heart.

It's going to be difficult for her to win the game given the systemic racism inherent in the game though. Look at the individual immunity winners. 7 times won by people of privilege, 6 of them being white (Tori x2, Jonathan x2, Lindsay x2, Hai x1). These immunity challenges need to be revamped.
They should just assign immunity randomly for fairness. It's really unfair to have immunity be decided by feats of athleticism, skill, endurance, and mental prowess. Chet deserves immunity too.
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