I don't remember this on the episodes personally but listening to Tarans podcast currently and it was mentioned Omar knows about the amulet advantage.

Not that its particular relevant as I understand the idol expires at the final 6 so she has to play it next round

Simulation

LIFE DEATH DEATH

You choose 1. Probst eliminates 2. Stay. Win.
You choose 1. Probst eliminates 2. Swap. Lose.

DEATH LIFE DEATH

You choose 1. Probst eliminates 3. Stay. Lose.
You choose 1. Probst eliminates 3. Swap. Win.

DEATH DEATH LIFE

You choose 1. Probst eliminates 2. Stay. Lose.
You choose 1. Probst eliminates 2. Swap. Win.

You win 2/3 of the time you swap, and only 1/3 of the time you stay.

The Monty Hall problem makes mathematical sense, but from a psychological point of view I doubt we'll see many Survivors (if any) choose to swap. For whatever irrational reason there is a tendency to "trust your original gut feeling", and to feel worse about swapping and losing, than about staying and losing.

Of course if there are poker players or 2p2ers in the cast, they will swap. But most will not.

I'm assuming Latina.

There's also never been an Asian female winner.

If there were 100 options, you choose one, Jeff eliminates 98 of the other 99 and then gives you the option to switch, do you still think it’s 50/50?

Erika s41 is Asian and female.

Drea did a few oopsies for sure but her reads were pretty much always spot on, and that was impressive imo.

Didn't like her spilling the beans at end of tribal. I always thought it was a rule the person had to not say anything and leave. It's not? People can influence so much by saying just a few words, let alone a full speech like Drea did.



Also by Drea's comments I'm going to guess Maryann win theory is pretty dead. It didn't seem at all like she could be pushing for a Maryann win, and if Drea doesn't do that she has no shot.
Maybe she has tiny equity if F3 is Maryann Jonathan and Omar, I really hope they give it to Jonathan in that situation. In the end him being a challenge beast but not strong socially is the only reason he is not being targeted every vote ...

I am going to have to watch the replays again to see if there is any possibility a couple of these were magicians boxes, where depending on how they were opened, a different picture was shown.

Was it this dangerous last season?
I thought it was 2 safes and 1 OUT last time

The danger remained the same. 1 safe and 2 outs in both seasons.

Meh, 50/50

Wasn't the person who won last season Asian female?

Edit: yup, Filipino

I was trying to explain how it was mathematically incorrect to keep the same box to my mother-in-law. She said, but you gotta trust your gut. I said, okay, but that's mathematically wrong. She looked at me like I was crazy. I'm sure it didn't help that Deshawn and Lyndsay both stayed and stayed.

guts > math.

Since we're rehashing the monty hall problem in here for newbies, I got one thatll blow your mind.

0.999999999.... (repeating infinite) = 1

My gut says that's a load of bullshit.

Identical boxes and markings, the only random part is first part -> choosing the first box
In step 2, there is always 1 or 2 skull boxes not chosen so Jeff always picks a skull box-> increases odds from 1/3 to 1/2 for boxes being a flame

3 boxes = 1 flame(life) + 2 skull(death) (1/3 flame odds)
3 boxes - 1 skull = 2 boxes = 1 flame + 1 skull (1/2 flame odds)

when it is offered to swap, both boxes have a 50% chance of being a flame or a skull so no increase in probability by switching

So there are 1 quadrillion boxes. You pick 1.
Probst then removes all but the box you picked and another one.

You think there's a 50% chance you made a 1 in a quadrillion pick?

The 'gut' way to play Monty Hall is on initial selection pick a box you don't think it is. That way when you rightfully switch, you're doing the math properly and going with your gut at the same time.

Of course in the Survivor variant, the contestants didn't know they were Monty Halling.

I just hope this twist continues forever so you guys can talk about this for the rest of time. (:

my gut tells me this is GTO

This has always been really unsettling to me. Similarly unsettling, that there are different levels of infinity.

GuTO