Quote:
Originally Posted by prizminferno
trying to figure out what level Becky was on with that $2101 FJ bid or it was just "lol if he bids $0 I can win"
Actually pretty much optimal wager from Becky.
She cannot win if Alex gets it right and cover bets. 1st place gets it right over 50% of the time, leaders almost always cover bet.
If 1st gets it wrong, then 2nd is also likely to get it wrong (almost 60%).
So if she can't win if Alex gets it right, and she is likely to get it wrong if he gets it wrong (by a factor of 60:40), then she should wager based on her best chance which is a
wrong-wrong answer scenario.
There is a small chance that Alex gets cute or hates the category and bets $0 (she has been in the audience and watched him bet $0 2/3 days-albeit in lock games).
So why not bet just enough to cover the $0 wager? She still wins wrong-wrong when he cover bets and now she wins wrong-right if wagers $0. Might add 1% to her win chance, but 1>0. She gives up nothing on the other side.