Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST) - Page 209

Shoving has to be the move there on that last DD. Betting 2k or whatever he did there is awful, if he gets it wrong he's drawing pretty slim to not be locked out, but if he gets it right, he's far from guaranteed to get above 2/3rds of first place. Literally everyone not named Roger Craig underbets on their Daily Doubles though, so you'll just drive yourself mad hoping for people to not **** it up. It's like 4th downs in football, no one wants to go for it and potentially lose the game immediately even if the odds are in their favor.

Last edited by Dudd; 07-09-2014 at 10:42 PM.

Quote

07-09-2014 , 11:38 PM

#5203

danspartan

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,851

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hollywade

I followed you up until this point, and then you lost me.

Sorry-the standard 2nd "idiot bet" of 2nd betting big when close to 1st and 3rd should be locked out happens at >40%. (eg 12K-11K-4K and 2nd bets 10K)

Even in the case of 2nd = 1/2 of 1st, 2nd bets wrong 1/3 of the time.

So my point was that when the math is easy (exactly 1/2) they screw it up 1/3 of the time, so its not surprising that when the math is harder they screw it up even more frequently.

A long way to get there, I know. Hope this makes sense.

Quote

07-09-2014 , 11:40 PM

#5204

danspartan

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,851

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dudd

Quote

07-10-2014 , 06:41 PM

#5205

Sponger

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 93

Had a few episodes taped, got caught up just now. The $11k vs $22k bid made me yell out loud. "No ****ing way she just bid that. NO SHE DIDN'T." Oh but she did. I instantly thought of this thread and couldn't look it up fast enough. Enjoyed the commentary and especially the YouTube video posted. Been watching Jeopardy more or less for 15 years and can't recall a worse bid than that. And like someone had pointed out, she acted as if she had no idea what she had done. Instant classic.

Quote

07-10-2014 , 07:57 PM

#5206

Dudd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 54,241

I always hate when someone makes a dumb wager from second/third and manages to get there like tonight's champ did.

Quote

07-10-2014 , 10:11 PM

#5207

Lattimer

I is smart

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 15,463

Hadn't seen this for weeks but caught tonight. Always nice to see my hometown make it into the show, either explicitly or implicitly (the Thoreau clue about Merrimack and Concord Rivers)

Quote

07-10-2014 , 11:35 PM

#5208

Gaddy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,379

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dudd

I always hate when someone makes a dumb wager from second/third and manages to get there like tonight's champ did.

And clueless Alex looks at her wager and says, "Good for you!" Funny thing is, if she had missed FJ then they would have ended in a three-way tie at 3600!

Quote

07-10-2014 , 11:49 PM

#5209

Dudd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 54,241

Yeah, weird how that worked out with second place going too big as well. At least first place played for the tie, too bad he had to go since he actually had a clue.

Quote

07-10-2014 , 11:51 PM

#5210

Lattimer

I is smart

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 15,463

Hated the $1200 DD wager.

Quote

07-11-2014 , 09:28 AM

#5211

danspartan

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,851

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dudd

Yeah, weird how that worked out with second place going too big as well. At least first place played for the tie, too bad he had to go since he actually had a clue.

2nd and 3rd were only concerned with 1sts cover bet. Since he offered the tie--all three at 3600 on a triple stumper.

2nd should have bet to cover 3rd? Or just go for it?

3rd should have bet to tie 2nd score going into FJ and still win a TS?

Quote

07-11-2014 , 12:22 PM

#5212

Dudd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 54,241

It's weird wagers from both of them. Without collusion, there's no reason for second and third to think 3600 will be enough to win. If second makes the minimum wager to cover third doubling, then 3600 won't win on a triple stumper for third place, so they should bet smaller. If third bets smaller, then tying first place on a double miss won't win it for second, so they should either bet the minimum to cover third and win or a triple stumper if third bets too much, or everything if they think first will offer the tie, which he did in a previous game.

Quote

07-12-2014 , 03:00 AM

#5213

riverboatking

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 23,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sponger

+1 to everything in this post.
just catching up after vegas.

godamn that was TERRIBLE.
holy wtf.

Quote

07-14-2014 , 11:09 AM

#5214

GBP04

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 7,941

ok I am going to keep track this week . do you guys account for buzzer speed or just see if you can spit out the right answer before they do? and just keep track + / - on a piece of paper?

Quote

07-14-2014 , 01:37 PM

#5215

shane88888

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 8,984

Quote:

Originally Posted by GBP04

ok I am going to keep track this week . do you guys account for buzzer speed or just see if you can spit out the right answer before they do? and just keep track + / - on a piece of paper?

Try an app. It's way easier.

If I know the answer, I'm beating the players to it like 95% of the time with the delay anyway. If I'm braincramping, I'll pause and not count my answer if it takes me more than a few seconds to come up with it.

Quote

07-14-2014 , 07:59 PM

#5216

Dudd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 54,241

All set to berate third place for betting it all in FJ, but then second offered the tie. And then first didn't make the covering wager, so it didn't matter. ****'s getting crazy, so much leveling going on.

Quote

07-14-2014 , 08:15 PM

#5217

danspartan

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,851

I thought 3rd had to shove. She needed WWR and 1st's cover bet was still not big enough to go under her current score. Obviously she also needed 2nd to overbet. Drawing thin, but if the only way she can win is to get the FJ right, then she might as well shove.

Why do these leaders that don't cover bet keep getting away with it? Aarrrgghhhh.

Like 2nd's bet (though no reason to offer 3rd the tie).

Quote

07-14-2014 , 08:33 PM

#5218

Dudd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 54,241

Yeah, actually now that I think about it instead of just reacting, not shoving would have been dumb. She wouldn't have been above first place's miss on a covering wager with a zero wager, so disregard that.

Quote

07-15-2014 , 07:57 PM

#5219

True North

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 23,703

That moment when you see the clue for Final Jeopardy and realize it's so easy you have no chance to overtake first without an idiotic wager.

Quote

07-15-2014 , 08:08 PM

#5220

danspartan

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,851

yup, doesnt get any easier.

Quote

07-16-2014 , 01:10 AM

#5221

Gaddy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,379

Yeah, too bad because was rooting for decently cute Anna but knew she didn't have chance when saw question. No comments on best name in Jeopardy history?

Quote

07-16-2014 , 08:56 PM

#5222

Dudd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 54,241

I was a Ben-Hur fan, had a good screen presence.

Quote

07-16-2014 , 10:50 PM

#5223

Gaddy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,379

I hadn't even noticed that Ed offered Anna the tie Tuesday if she had bet it all. So annoy Wednesday, leaving six clues on the board in DJ.

Quote

07-17-2014 , 12:24 AM

#5224

Dudd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 54,241

The tie thing does seem like it's picking up momentum. Campbell the JAG officer offered the tie all three of his games too, not just the ill fated lock tie game we all laughed at.